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Britains economy

(104 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Wed 08-Jun-22 06:48:47

Very gloomy forecast.

Period of stagflation forecast. Which means rapidly rising prices and a contracting economy.

The economy ground to a halt in February and
Contracted even more in March. Let’s hope that the jubilee helps a bit.

Rising prices are inflicting countries world wide, but economists say that Britain is facing particular issues.
Britains labour market is very tight for two reasons - long term sickness and Brexit which took away a large labour pool.

Disposable income is expected to drop to 1.75% and consumer Confidence at a 14 year low, which means businesses are nervously trying to calculate how far they dare push prices before their customers start to fall away.

Businesses who trade with Europe are facing a huge level of red tap, adding to the cost burden that never existed before, and this will add an extra 6% to inflation, which is why we are seeing inflation in the U.K. higher than other European countries. Food prices in particular are rising, but it is across the board.

Energy prices are set to rise again in October by a further £800

Sterling is very precarious at the moment with the Bank of America saying that because of the instability caused by the British governments actions and lack of substantive planning, Sterling is being treated like an emerging currency causing its value to fall which of course will have a further effect on rising inflation.

Johnson has little options in trying. to mitigate any of this, other than resign and Britain to have a government that can bring stability and economic integrity. There is a call to cut taxes which this government has raised to the highest level since WW2. But this will barely touch the surface.

Time to baton down the hatches.

Whitewavemark2 Sun 12-Jun-22 07:15:19

DaisyAnne

This is Richard Murphy following up his twitter thread in an interview on Byline TV

It's not heavy so worth watching through to the end.

Yes thanks for that. I’ve been too busy to do any sort in-depth thinking lately - just chatter on GN, but I do intend to try to get to grips with this issue.

Take away from video is……….

Banks have benefited enormously from Q/E to the tune of 9bn£ since first the crash and recently covid.

The reason being that the government used quantities easing first to shore up the failing banks and more recently to “pay” for covid.

Right I definitely get the first where money was thrown at the banks. Have they ever paid it back?

But my difficulty is with the covid funding. So Murphy is suggesting that in order for it to pay for covid, including all the fraudulent supply of PPE, test and trace etc. they needed the BoE to print money in the form of Q/E and to release this to the central banking system, to allow the government to move this around to pay for covid. Right I get that, but now I come unstuck.

So the Central banking system is the method by which banks move money around between each other.

So when it receives a large amount from the BoE we assume it is then instructed by the government to first move it to the government retail bank? Then supply is paid for in the usual way?

Or the government instructs the BoE to pay for its supply by moving the money into the banking retail system and appropriate banking account as necessary.

How does it work. Where do we get our pension from?

That’s puzzle 1 - I think that is probably easily resolved with a bit of research.

But puzzle 2 is more difficult I think.

So Murphy is suggesting that not only did the commercial banks benefit massively from the first tranche of Q/E which I can see as the money stopped with them. But hoe did they benefit massively from the second tranche of Q/E if the money was ostensively used to pay for covid?

Isn’t it all gone into the suppliers pockets?

Whitewavemark2 Sun 12-Jun-22 07:18:17

vegansrock

One reason why our energy and petrol prices have risen so rapidly - more than in many other countries - is that the price of oil is measured in US$. The weakness of the £ means that it’s more expensive for the U.K. to buy it than countries with a stronger currency.

Yes and I think that the Bank of America was talking about this fall in the value of Sterling as being a real issue for the U.K. because government policies - or rather a complete lack of them- is not doing anything to support £ .

Katie59 Sun 12-Jun-22 08:35:07

The price of most commodities is valued in US $, the war in Ukraine is costing us dear and will continue to do so for several years, so we should not expect any quick fix.

Although the west had sanctions against Russia there was a lot of oil and gas flowing to EU and UK replacing that will be at a higher cost. We will be buying the higher cost imports with a weak sterling and it will hurt.