Ukraine

I doubt the Putin will ever step down unless he is forced to and who will follow? He will go down in history on a level with Hitler.

The News says he is at his most dangerous now. Heaven help the poor Ukrainians.

halfpint1

Well said Whitewave

?

GrannyGravy13

I think we should all be aware that President Putin will not look on this favourably. Now is not the time for jubilation or for the Ukrainians to relax in their victories

President Putin still has military options which if actioned will be catastrophic.

I listened to Jeremy Bowen last night on T.V. he said exactly the same as you GrannyGravy13. Now is not the time to relax. The Ukrainians are making excellent progress but it will annoy Putin and what will he pull out of the hat next, we have to hope nothing nuclear and catastrophic.
One positive thing was pointed out that the Ukrainians taking back part of their land is certainly showing some lack lustre NATO countries that money and armaments given are money well spent.

The South East of Ukraine is a big footprint, and Russia still holds a big area, but I do think that the sudden and successful rout of Russia in the north east, will have a definite psychological effect on the Russians, particularly by such things as lack of supplies and support.

Putin’s legitimacy is not won by democracy, but by strength and competence, so this is certainly beginning to look a very dangerous time, for Putin, Russia, Ukraine and the west, with the instability the war is causing in Russia.

Russia still has options for sure, their problem is that Ukraine will only get stronger, Ukraines aim is to regain all territory lost including Crimea, that will be a big humiliation for Russia, apparently the Army is getting the blame for the disastrous performance. Putin remains strong for now but unrest is increasing.

Winter is coming

President Putin announced in his public address this morning that he will hold referendums in the Ukrainian provinces under Russian control to ascertain if they wish to become part of Russia.

If the answer is yes, then any subsequent actions by Ukrainian Forces will be deemed as an attack on Russian soil and Mr.Putin will not hold back using his WMD on Ukraine and it’s Western supporters.

He also asked for volunteers to join the Russian Army in such a way that it can only be described as enforced inscription.

As much as I hoped to be proved wrong on this, I always thought he would be his most dangerous when it looked like he was losing.

Volunteers you are joking, to date he has been using Chechen mercenaries and prisoners released to fight in exchange for their sentence.

His army is a mess, thousands of reservists - conscripts are going to make it a bigger mess and might just turn the population against him. What happens next depends on Biden will he call Putin’s bluff, he won’t want US boots on the ground,
will he continue arming Ukraine and escalate if needed.

I just wish Liz Truss would shut up. I don’t understand who she thinks she’s helping by her smartass comments about Putin failing.

*inscription should have been conscription
(My iPad has a mind if it’s own)

President Putin announced in his public address this morning that he will hold referendums in the Ukrainian provinces under Russian control to ascertain if they wish to become part of Russia

Will he allow impartial scrutineers to oversee the voting and counting of votes?

Russians are trying to leave Russia to avoid conscription presumably.

Callistemon21

^President Putin announced in his public address this morning that he will hold referendums in the Ukrainian provinces under Russian control to ascertain if they wish to become part of Russia^

Will he allow impartial scrutineers to oversee the voting and counting of votes?

I wouldn’t hold your breath on that one.

I am sure he said the referendums would be held in the coming days not long to establish a transparent vote in a war torn area.

I think any referendums held by President Putin are a foregone conclusion, as was the one held in Crimea. There is no way anything like this will be transparent, free or fair and Putin won't be losing it that's for sure.

Jaberwok

I think any referendums held by President Putin are a foregone conclusion, as was the one held in Crimea. There is no way anything like this will be transparent, free or fair and Putin won't be losing it that's for sure.

On top of that, I think that anyone who values their life would have to be either very brave or very foolish to risk voting 'no' in such a referendum, or even to abstain!

I had seen pictures on Twitter of airports and roads packed with men of fighting age trying to leave Russia.

The mainstream morning news is showing queues of cars and coaches trying to cross the borders into Georgia, Mongolia and Finland along with demonstrations against the war in Moscow and other cities in Russia.

It seems the population of Russia is slowly realising the situation is not as Mr Putin has been portraying.

Most of the conscripts will turn up as they will not have the resources to vote with their feet. A few wealthier men getting out won't make a difference to the overall numbers. There were protests here against conscription in the first world war.

There were protests here against conscription in the first world war.

Yes, but that changed into a massive patriotic mobilization where volunteers formed lads brigades and many underage boys signed up as well.
This is not going to happen in Russia, when the reservists get to the front they will surrender en mass at the first opportunity, Russian officers will be at more risk from their own troops than the Ukrainians.

Looking at the footage Daisymae it is not a few wealthier men it is thousands and thousands of ordinary men.

Mr,Putin has no longer got the support of the population, the truth of what is going on in Ukraine has been filtering down throughout Russia.

He is an angry man, and probably at his most dangerous. Apparently China has told him to win quickly or get out as they do not want a global recession which is becoming more likely with energy costs spiralling.

I agree Katie59 Russian Officers are at risk from their troops unfortunately it’s the mercenaries who will cause the most damage in Ukraine not the ill equipped and under trained conscripts.

I hope that whoever Katie59 is getting her analysis from is correct.

Though I'm very dubious about mass surrendering.

Russia is not short of men. The vast majority will go. What happens next is another thing.

Daisymae

Russia is not short of men. The vast majority will go. What happens next is another thing.

The reservists will have to go, they were given no choice.
What Putin gives with one hand he takes with the other.
We were celebrating the release of a family friend who was under the death sentence, and then Putin was threatening Nuclear revenge. Or were the 5 who were released swapped for captured Russian military leaders who are needed for the new conscripts?
Someone like him who is not getting his own way is a very dangerous person.

One of the reasons the US lost Vietnam was that the conscripts had no heart in the fight and many officers met with accidents.
I don’t believe Russia will go nuclear because the US will respond in kind, and radioactivity will spread over Russia as well as the rest of Europe.
For me the big question is wether Putin turns into Stalin and imprisons and murders many thousands of his own people to achieve his aims, or wether others remove him.

Katie59

One of the reasons the US lost Vietnam was that the conscripts had no heart in the fight and many officers met with accidents.
I don’t believe Russia will go nuclear because the US will respond in kind, and radioactivity will spread over Russia as well as the rest of Europe.
For me the big question is wether Putin turns into Stalin and imprisons and murders many thousands of his own people to achieve his aims, or wether others remove him.

There was an expert on the news this morning and I will précis his opinion (he has spent several months in Ukraine this year and knows Russia well)

President Putin has been warned by USA, if they use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine that Russia will be the recipient of multiple strikes (non nuclear) from the USA and Russia will cease to exist as we know it. I also believe that there are those in the Kremlin who will not under any circumstances allow Putin to press the button. We have to rely on Chinas influence, they do not want a global war as it would damage their economy beyond recovery

Or were the 5 who were released swapped for captured Russian military leaders who are needed for the new conscripts?

As the Russian military leaders have shown themselves to be a trifle inept at fighting the war in Ukraine I doubt they are of much actual value to Russia now they've been returned.

Commentators have been pointing out that the conscripts will have minimal training, that autumn is a rainy season (recall how the mud did for the advance on Kyiv) and winter is coming. The Ukrainian army has been concentrating on cutting supply lines and targeting ammunition dumps. And it is well trained, experienced and strongly motivated. The advantage still seems to rest with Ukraine.

I don't think that Putin will go nuclear, either. Wasn't he threatening that way back in the spring?