Ukraine

Casdon

GrannyGravy13

John Simpson on Twitter

^China’s foreign minister tells his Ukrainian counterpart l, Dmytro Kuleba that China respects Ukraine’s sovereignty & territorial integrity & rejects force. This on the day when referendums begin in Russian held areas of Ukraine on whetstone to link up with Russia. Watch out Putin^

That’s really good to hear.

So if the recognise self determination they recognise Taiwan as independant.
You can’t trust anything China says.

Casdon

GrannyGravy13

John Simpson on Twitter

^China’s foreign minister tells his Ukrainian counterpart l, Dmytro Kuleba that China respects Ukraine’s sovereignty & territorial integrity & rejects force. This on the day when referendums begin in Russian held areas of Ukraine on whetstone to link up with Russia. Watch out Putin^

That’s really good to hear.

I wish I had the confidence to take China's foreign minister's statement at face value.
In reality, I fear that China's foreign minister will take a 'yes' vote in the dubious referendum, however corrupt or coerced, as an excuse to continue to back Russia.

GrannyGravy13

John Simpson on Twitter

^China’s foreign minister tells his Ukrainian counterpart l, Dmytro Kuleba that China respects Ukraine’s sovereignty & territorial integrity & rejects force. This on the day when referendums begin in Russian held areas of Ukraine on whetstone to link up with Russia. Watch out Putin^

That’s really good to hear.

John Simpson on Twitter

China’s foreign minister tells his Ukrainian counterpart l, Dmytro Kuleba that China respects Ukraine’s sovereignty & territorial integrity & rejects force. This on the day when referendums begin in Russian held areas of Ukraine on whetstone to link up with Russia. Watch out Putin

On our news it said that many Russians were googling easy ways to break their arms to prevent them from having to serve. Putin is a nutjob, though,so whether he will press a nuclear button or not might not be something you could judge from a sane person’s point of view.

Thanks for that (09.41) GG13

Or were the 5 who were released swapped for captured Russian military leaders who are needed for the new conscripts?

As the Russian military leaders have shown themselves to be a trifle inept at fighting the war in Ukraine I doubt they are of much actual value to Russia now they've been returned.

Commentators have been pointing out that the conscripts will have minimal training, that autumn is a rainy season (recall how the mud did for the advance on Kyiv) and winter is coming. The Ukrainian army has been concentrating on cutting supply lines and targeting ammunition dumps. And it is well trained, experienced and strongly motivated. The advantage still seems to rest with Ukraine.

I don't think that Putin will go nuclear, either. Wasn't he threatening that way back in the spring?

Katie59

One of the reasons the US lost Vietnam was that the conscripts had no heart in the fight and many officers met with accidents.
I don’t believe Russia will go nuclear because the US will respond in kind, and radioactivity will spread over Russia as well as the rest of Europe.
For me the big question is wether Putin turns into Stalin and imprisons and murders many thousands of his own people to achieve his aims, or wether others remove him.

There was an expert on the news this morning and I will précis his opinion (he has spent several months in Ukraine this year and knows Russia well)

President Putin has been warned by USA, if they use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine that Russia will be the recipient of multiple strikes (non nuclear) from the USA and Russia will cease to exist as we know it. I also believe that there are those in the Kremlin who will not under any circumstances allow Putin to press the button. We have to rely on Chinas influence, they do not want a global war as it would damage their economy beyond recovery

One of the reasons the US lost Vietnam was that the conscripts had no heart in the fight and many officers met with accidents.
I don’t believe Russia will go nuclear because the US will respond in kind, and radioactivity will spread over Russia as well as the rest of Europe.
For me the big question is wether Putin turns into Stalin and imprisons and murders many thousands of his own people to achieve his aims, or wether others remove him.

Daisymae

Russia is not short of men. The vast majority will go. What happens next is another thing.

The reservists will have to go, they were given no choice.
What Putin gives with one hand he takes with the other.
We were celebrating the release of a family friend who was under the death sentence, and then Putin was threatening Nuclear revenge. Or were the 5 who were released swapped for captured Russian military leaders who are needed for the new conscripts?
Someone like him who is not getting his own way is a very dangerous person.

Russia is not short of men. The vast majority will go. What happens next is another thing.

I hope that whoever Katie59 is getting her analysis from is correct.

Though I'm very dubious about mass surrendering.

Looking at the footage Daisymae it is not a few wealthier men it is thousands and thousands of ordinary men.

Mr,Putin has no longer got the support of the population, the truth of what is going on in Ukraine has been filtering down throughout Russia.

He is an angry man, and probably at his most dangerous. Apparently China has told him to win quickly or get out as they do not want a global recession which is becoming more likely with energy costs spiralling.

I agree Katie59 Russian Officers are at risk from their troops unfortunately it’s the mercenaries who will cause the most damage in Ukraine not the ill equipped and under trained conscripts.

There were protests here against conscription in the first world war.

Yes, but that changed into a massive patriotic mobilization where volunteers formed lads brigades and many underage boys signed up as well.
This is not going to happen in Russia, when the reservists get to the front they will surrender en mass at the first opportunity, Russian officers will be at more risk from their own troops than the Ukrainians.

Most of the conscripts will turn up as they will not have the resources to vote with their feet. A few wealthier men getting out won't make a difference to the overall numbers. There were protests here against conscription in the first world war.

I had seen pictures on Twitter of airports and roads packed with men of fighting age trying to leave Russia.

The mainstream morning news is showing queues of cars and coaches trying to cross the borders into Georgia, Mongolia and Finland along with demonstrations against the war in Moscow and other cities in Russia.

It seems the population of Russia is slowly realising the situation is not as Mr Putin has been portraying.

Jaberwok

I think any referendums held by President Putin are a foregone conclusion, as was the one held in Crimea. There is no way anything like this will be transparent, free or fair and Putin won't be losing it that's for sure.

On top of that, I think that anyone who values their life would have to be either very brave or very foolish to risk voting 'no' in such a referendum, or even to abstain!

I think any referendums held by President Putin are a foregone conclusion, as was the one held in Crimea. There is no way anything like this will be transparent, free or fair and Putin won't be losing it that's for sure.

Callistemon21

^President Putin announced in his public address this morning that he will hold referendums in the Ukrainian provinces under Russian control to ascertain if they wish to become part of Russia^

Will he allow impartial scrutineers to oversee the voting and counting of votes?

I wouldn’t hold your breath on that one.

I am sure he said the referendums would be held in the coming days not long to establish a transparent vote in a war torn area.

Russians are trying to leave Russia to avoid conscription presumably.

President Putin announced in his public address this morning that he will hold referendums in the Ukrainian provinces under Russian control to ascertain if they wish to become part of Russia

Will he allow impartial scrutineers to oversee the voting and counting of votes?

*inscription should have been conscription
(My iPad has a mind if it’s own)

I just wish Liz Truss would shut up. I don’t understand who she thinks she’s helping by her smartass comments about Putin failing.

Volunteers you are joking, to date he has been using Chechen mercenaries and prisoners released to fight in exchange for their sentence.

His army is a mess, thousands of reservists - conscripts are going to make it a bigger mess and might just turn the population against him. What happens next depends on Biden will he call Putin’s bluff, he won’t want US boots on the ground,
will he continue arming Ukraine and escalate if needed.

President Putin announced in his public address this morning that he will hold referendums in the Ukrainian provinces under Russian control to ascertain if they wish to become part of Russia.

If the answer is yes, then any subsequent actions by Ukrainian Forces will be deemed as an attack on Russian soil and Mr.Putin will not hold back using his WMD on Ukraine and it’s Western supporters.

He also asked for volunteers to join the Russian Army in such a way that it can only be described as enforced inscription.

As much as I hoped to be proved wrong on this, I always thought he would be his most dangerous when it looked like he was losing.