The Brexit Effect

A reminder of the Keynes dictum quoted on another thread

As Keynes famously said: " You can't balance the nation's books by cutting the nation's income. "

I disagree with that, if the plan had been presented as a properly costed budget it may well have been acceptable, not popular but that’s a different case,

It was never going to work, KAtie59. Cutting taxes for the wealthy and for companies was never going to 'grow' the economy. The 'trickle down' effect has been empirically proven not to work time and time again. Cutting company taxes doesn't encourage investment, it just leads to share buy backs and higher dividends for shareholders. Also empirically proven.

Meanwhile, the greater part of the population, in a cost of living crisis, has very little spare money to spend on new goods and services. No company is going to invest in an economy that has very little spare money in it to generate the profit that would justify the investment.

The only way that our economy will recover most rapidly is through significant state investment. You've got to put the money into the economy before any company can take it out... Nothing else makes any sense whatsoever.

I think 'the markets' would have been fine with a strong programme of state investment and the prospect of growth.

“Katie, the markets would not react to poor presentation; they are far too sophisticated for that. They reacted to the content of the budget and their lack of trust in Truss and Kwarteng.”

I disagree with that, if the plan had been presented as a properly costed budget it may well have been acceptable, not popular but that’s a different case, we’ve had plenty of unpopular budgets. Sunak’s plan is probably not going to be popular, so far he has said he is going to protect the most vulnerable and raise taxes. Along with inevitable spending cuts and high interest rates it’s going to be a very tough budget for many of us to swallow.

Katie59

The whole trade issue is a mess, the aim of Brexit was to cherry pick EU deals and free up better deals with third countries. The former failed, Covid and Ukraine has prevented any significant progress on the latter.

I simply believe that the EU does not trust this government one millimeter, let’s face it they have enough problems of their own, to spend much thought over ours of our own making.

Truss had a vision to get us out of the hole we have dug for ourselves, then made a total mess of presenting it, Sunak’s appointment has stabilized politics but the hole is still there. Although Starmer is calling for a GE he knows there won’t be one, whoever is in power is going to make little if any progress until normal trading conditions return.

Katie, the markets would not react to poor presentation; they are far too sophisticated for that. They reacted to the content of the budget and their lack of trust in Truss and Kwarteng.

You are descending into newspeak.

😁

Is that you Suella?

I’m with you kandinsky. Would vote Leave again if asked for the sheer pleasure of it. Remember the announcement in 2016? I was joyous. Much has thwarted progress. We were in for over 40 years so there’s a lot to untangle yet. It’s early days.

Btw I think we are only a minority on here.

Kandinsky

I’ll never regret voting leave.
Neither will the ( many ) people I know who voted leave.
Sorry

But we’ll happily die in the ‘weirdo’s’ corner of a pub. Sounds like a great way to go.

Can I just ask what did you want when you voted leave and has it been achieved?

Kandinsky

I’ll never regret voting leave.
Neither will the ( many ) people I know who voted leave.
Sorry

But we’ll happily die in the ‘weirdo’s’ corner of a pub. Sounds like a great way to go.

Leavers are not repentant for helping to destroy the UK economy, it comes down to general xenophobia, they just hate any thing that’s not “British”.

LOL, I'll buy you a drink on your way ;)

But you do realise you are now in a tiny minority.

Rees-Mogg could not find any so the job was got rid off. Could you please give us that list we have been asking for, for years now? Please.

I’ll never regret voting leave.
Neither will the ( many ) people I know who voted leave.
Sorry

But we’ll happily die in the ‘weirdo’s’ corner of a pub. Sounds like a great way to go.

With such a tiny majority, demographics alone have tipped the balance, never mind the vast majority having 'seen the light' and changed their mind.

DaisyAnne, but they knew EXACTLY what they wre voting for!!!

varian

I wonder how long it will take for the leavers to admit they were wrong?

I'm not holding my breath.

They won't. They will, however, eventually either die or become the weirdos in the corner of the pub (if there are any left) as history tells our decedent's how and why the wealth of our country was destroyed.

There will still be those around who think that Trump had the election stolen from him, that mass shootings and bombings were conspiracies set up to manipulate public opinion and played out by "crisis actors", that secret and unauthorised networks of power stop governments from pursuing their own goals and that Brexit was really a success.

There really is not point in talking to some people.

2.6m EU citizens at risk of expulsion from the UK

www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/01/home-office-is-putting-26m-eu-citizens-at-risk-of-removal-court-hears

Rushi Sunsk must abandon the lie

www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/10/rishi-sunak-brexit-good-for-uk

Brexit is an obstruction to trade and innovation

www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/29/brexit-red-tape-puts-brakes-on-uk-innovation-and-eu-sales

If the government actually wanted to grow our economy it would direct money towards poor folk who would spend that money in their local communities and not buy a new super-yacht or apartment in Monaco.

Katie59

The vision was headlong growth that’s clear, would it have worked in 2 yrs ? lMO highly doubtful. Will Sunak’s plan (when it’s revealed) bring a better result ? Maybe maybe not.
He has surrounded himself with hardliners so I’m not expecting it to be an easy time.

You haven't really explained how this 'headlong growth' was going to happen.

Katie59

Whitewavemark2

Katie59

Being in a Customs Union with the EU imposes restrictions on trade with other countries. Turkey is the only significant non EU nation, as a candidate EU member which has not progressed.
The EU will be very careful before granting UK entry into just the Customs Union it is far more in our interest than theirs, the Swiss have been bending the customs rules for many years and they don’t want the UK doing the same.

You are confusing membership of the EU and a non-member joining the CU.

Joining the CU merely means that businesses will save thousands a year both of bureaucratic time and money.

That is all.

No, it does restrict the deals you can do with third countries which is why Turkey is not happy, no EU entry and restricted trade deals.

But I thought the leave campaign said that Turkey were about to join the EU? Surely they weren’t lying?

The vision was headlong growth that’s clear, would it have worked in 2 yrs ? lMO highly doubtful. Will Sunak’s plan (when it’s revealed) bring a better result ? Maybe maybe not.
He has surrounded himself with hardliners so I’m not expecting it to be an easy time.

Truss had a vision to get us out of the hole we have dug for ourselves,

What was her 'vision' and how was it going to work, Katie59?

Can you explain it in detail?

Caleo

Fleurpepper, it's common knowledge these clever men and women in government know what to do to for the benefit of the old Country and its citizens.
I look forward to your rebuttal.

Is that and your other posts tongue in cheek ?

I see that the BBC is finally recognising the disastrous economic issues with Brexit.

Ross Atkins

“Based on available evidence, Brexit, in its current form, is one of the things constraining the growth of the UK's economy. Here's 5 mins on how we reached that conclusion. Watch the full edition of 'On the Week' on @BBCiPlayer here: bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001djzz/ros-atkins-on-the-week-series-1-the-new-prime-ministers-challenges

The whole trade issue is a mess, the aim of Brexit was to cherry pick EU deals and free up better deals with third countries. The former failed, Covid and Ukraine has prevented any significant progress on the latter.

I simply believe that the EU does not trust this government one millimeter, let’s face it they have enough problems of their own, to spend much thought over ours of our own making.

Truss had a vision to get us out of the hole we have dug for ourselves, then made a total mess of presenting it, Sunak’s appointment has stabilized politics but the hole is still there. Although Starmer is calling for a GE he knows there won’t be one, whoever is in power is going to make little if any progress until normal trading conditions return.