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Savanta MRP poll predicts Labour a 314-seat majority, with the Tories wiped out to just 69 seats.

(48 Posts)
DaisyAnne Tue 13-Dec-22 23:09:19

MRP - multi-level regression and post-stratification.

MRP was the method which accurately predicted the 2017 GE results including some of the most shocking swings.

Of course it could all be rubbish. But what if?

The map is here:

Whitewavemark2 Fri 23-Dec-22 07:45:03

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 51% (+4)
CON: 25% (-1)
LDM: 7% (-2)
RFM: 6% (=)
GRN: 5% (-1)
SNP: 4% (-1)

Grantanow Thu 22-Dec-22 11:25:35

Wow! As many as 69. Cheering news for all in the Tory Party.

MayBee70 Thu 15-Dec-22 14:00:29

Lovetopaint037

There could be a vote of no confidence in the government if things don’t turn around. It’s unlikely but without that we are in for the long haul. Our poor country bearing the consequences of David Cameron, Boris Johnson, Lizz Truss and a bunch of apparently know nothing, do nothing ministers.
Where does the blame start? I say it was the unelectable Corbyn and the Momentum bunch. Thank goodness Labour is now electable.

I agree about Corbyn. But that was allied to the fact that the Conservatives had Johnson who, much as I hate to admit it does seem to have a charismatic hold over vast swathes of the electorate. And that the ERG had control of the Conservative party ( as dangerous as Momentum but far more secretive and invisible to most voters). It was as if everything conspired to creat a Frankenstein’s monster of a government. Which now appears to have an incredibly weak leader.

Wheniwasyourage Thu 15-Dec-22 13:19:46

The current government is obviously totally knackered and completely clueless. Why can't they just give in and call an election? What state will be in if we go until the last minute? shock

Lovetopaint037 Thu 15-Dec-22 11:13:10

There could be a vote of no confidence in the government if things don’t turn around. It’s unlikely but without that we are in for the long haul. Our poor country bearing the consequences of David Cameron, Boris Johnson, Lizz Truss and a bunch of apparently know nothing, do nothing ministers.
Where does the blame start? I say it was the unelectable Corbyn and the Momentum bunch. Thank goodness Labour is now electable.

Iam64 Thu 15-Dec-22 07:58:02

growstuff - phew, I should’ve known. We are living in interesting times, as the Chinese curse goes. Surrounded by totally bonkers ideas from the government. It must have muddled my brain

growstuff Thu 15-Dec-22 02:40:32

I don't think we should have a declared bankrupt in Parliament either.

growstuff Thu 15-Dec-22 02:39:03

Iam64

Growstuff, I’m agreeing with varian, we have enough sex offenders in Parliament, no need for any more equal opportunities on that front. (Or we’re you having a larf)

I agree with posters who prefer an effective opposition which is a challenge if the govt has overwhelming majority, as we’ve seen in this parliament. I’m not worried about the extreme left DaisyAnne, Starmer is managing them and if he’s PM he’ll manage them even better imo

Of course I was having a larf!

DaisyAnne Wed 14-Dec-22 22:09:24

Iam64

Growstuff, I’m agreeing with varian, we have enough sex offenders in Parliament, no need for any more equal opportunities on that front. (Or we’re you having a larf)

I agree with posters who prefer an effective opposition which is a challenge if the govt has overwhelming majority, as we’ve seen in this parliament. I’m not worried about the extreme left DaisyAnne, Starmer is managing them and if he’s PM he’ll manage them even better imo

I know this sounds as if I'm havering Iam but I agree that Starmer is managing the left.

It's just that the right (ERG, etc) still manage to shock me, people attitudes to asylum seekers and immigration do too and I'm feeling more and more disappointed with Sunak. He has turned out to be less than I'd hoped for (and I wasn't very keen in the first place).

I think I'm in a "let's not be too naïve about any of them" mood.

M0nica Wed 14-Dec-22 20:02:08

growstuff I suspect they already are.

Iam64 Wed 14-Dec-22 19:51:31

Growstuff, I’m agreeing with varian, we have enough sex offenders in Parliament, no need for any more equal opportunities on that front. (Or we’re you having a larf)

I agree with posters who prefer an effective opposition which is a challenge if the govt has overwhelming majority, as we’ve seen in this parliament. I’m not worried about the extreme left DaisyAnne, Starmer is managing them and if he’s PM he’ll manage them even better imo

volver Wed 14-Dec-22 19:39:02

This is a very good thread. ✔️

varian Wed 14-Dec-22 18:54:00

I suspect that sex offenders are right now, probably over-represented in parliament. My MP is one of many accused of sexual harassment (amongst other misdemeanors) but has not had the decency to resign.

growstuff Wed 14-Dec-22 17:24:59

M0nica

It was not an argument, just a suggestion.

OK! I'm suggesting that sex offenders should be represented in Parliament.

MayBee70 Wed 14-Dec-22 17:13:14

DaisyAnne

MayBee70

Much as I dream of a Labour government, I don’t think a massive majority is good for democracy. Then again I have total faith in Keir doing what’s best for the country in every way possible.

Those were exactly my thoughts MayBee. I would worry about the far-left doing what the far-right did to when the Conservatives had a large majority.

I'm not sure I have total faith in KS (or any politician) but so far, he has not done too badly and I would want to wish him well if it did happen. My biggest worry would be, if he did get a huge vote would we get PR?

They discussed PR on an edition of The Rest is Politics. It’s difficult for a party in power to advocate something that would water down that power. But they pointed out that, if small extreme parties eg UKIP do have a voice in parliament they get a chance to air their views and it’s a case of keeping your friends close and your enemies even closer. To be honest my understanding of government doesn’t go as far as understanding economics or subjects such as PR: I just follow my gut instinct. And with PR my gut is as confused as I am!

M0nica Wed 14-Dec-22 17:12:33

It was not an argument, just a suggestion.

growstuff Wed 14-Dec-22 17:11:06

Aveline

What? In parliament?

No, in the country, but I thought the argument was that MPs should be more representative.

MaizieD Wed 14-Dec-22 16:55:08

Aveline

What? In parliament?

Most of them, it seems... grin

DaisyAnne Wed 14-Dec-22 16:31:54

MayBee70

Much as I dream of a Labour government, I don’t think a massive majority is good for democracy. Then again I have total faith in Keir doing what’s best for the country in every way possible.

Those were exactly my thoughts MayBee. I would worry about the far-left doing what the far-right did to when the Conservatives had a large majority.

I'm not sure I have total faith in KS (or any politician) but so far, he has not done too badly and I would want to wish him well if it did happen. My biggest worry would be, if he did get a huge vote would we get PR?

Aveline Wed 14-Dec-22 16:22:24

What? In parliament?

growstuff Wed 14-Dec-22 16:09:01

There are about 60,000 registered sex offenders.

Casdon Wed 14-Dec-22 16:00:32

M0nica

People are always complaining that Parliament is not properly representative of the population. Having an MP who has been declared bankrupt is surely a positive step towards greater diversity.

Well you made me laugh with that Monica! There are about 15,000 bankruptcies each year, it’s not exactly a mainstream occurrence- perhaps he should be made the Bankruptcy Minister as no doubt there will be more now we are in recession.

M0nica Wed 14-Dec-22 15:34:25

People are always complaining that Parliament is not properly representative of the population. Having an MP who has been declared bankrupt is surely a positive step towards greater diversity.

MayBee70 Wed 14-Dec-22 13:57:17

Much as I dream of a Labour government, I don’t think a massive majority is good for democracy. Then again I have total faith in Keir doing what’s best for the country in every way possible.

growstuff Wed 14-Dec-22 12:45:03

MaizieD

growstuff

Forcing bankrupt MPs from holding office might be a start.

Isn't that an automatic disqualification?

That's what twitter was saying the other day. I'm off to google...

Apparently not.