Savanta MRP poll predicts Labour a 314-seat majority, with the Tories wiped out to just 69 seats.

I wish they'd call an election now. The Conservatives won't win now or if they wait 2 years . Might as well get it done.

Saying that, I do wonder if the Labour Party might prefer to wait.

Of course it would rather wait, who’d want to deal with all the crap for the next two years?
Don’t think in a thousand years the tories will get in at the next election but also don’t think they will only get 69 seats, that’s just mad.

I think the longer they can hang on, the more damage the tories can leave for Labour to repair. When the repair takes a longer time than the electorate, who like simplistic answers, can understand the tories will have a stick to beat the Labour government with. They're looking to return after 1 term,.

OTOH, I've seen it suggested that Labour still suffers some damage from memories (and myths) of the Winter of Discontent. I think that this current winter will be far more discontented than that of 40+ years ago (at least our public services worked better then, despite the strikes) and it's possible that similar folk memory would keep the tories out of office for a very long time.

I think you’re spot on with your second paragraph MaizieD. After Christmas I think this winter will be incredibly difficult for people, particularly young families, and they aren’t going to forget their experiences - the winter of 2022/23 will go down in the collective memory of the electorate.
I’ve been predicting the next election in spring for a while, and I’m still of that opinion.

I will believe it if it happens. The next election is two years away and any thoughts of an earlier one is wishful thinking.

Remember, Harold Wilson said: a week is a long time in politics. Two years is so many times longer.

Labour needs to gain 130 seats for an overall majority. There are 134 seats where a swing of less than 10% would defeat the Conservatives.

www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/conservative

Boundary changes will make it slightly more difficult for Labour to win, but a 10% swing is feasible. Of course, it depends which party was in second place last time and whether the opposition vote is split. Not all Conservative losses would necessarily be Labour gains.

2 years is a long time.
Who knows what will happen?
We are still mid term with boundary changes, looming. The landscape will change, especially with more seats in the South East.
Labour won't get a foot hold in Scotland, they need those seats, to get the numbers.
They will win but not with a slim majority.

2 years may indeed be a long time, but I can't see the tories doing anything to turn their fortunes around in that time.

They have achieved absolutely nothing positive since 2019 and the UK is now in a chaotic state which they seem to have no solutions for, apart from repressive legislation and trying to keep voters focussed on 'illegal immigration'.

Labour doesn't need the Scottish seats, if it regains most of the seats it's lost since 2010. Although it's not showing up in national polls, the LibDems are likely to target specific seats and it will probably win some of them. I think the LibDems would be foolish to form a coalition with Labour, but it's likely that they would vote with Labour more often than not, if Labour only had a slim majority. If Reform gets its act together, it could very well split the right-wing vote, especially in the East of England.

I wish we could have an earlier election. It feels to me we have an almost invisible govt, out of ideas and on a path of repressive legislation, aimed at their core vote of anti immigrant, dislike of public services and largely I’m ok Jack sod you approach

It isn’t 2 years now though is it?

Usually in May if the election year. So maybe 18 months and counting🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞

Iam64

I wish we could have an earlier election. It feels to me we have an almost invisible govt, out of ideas and on a path of repressive legislation, aimed at their core vote of anti immigrant, dislike of public services and largely I’m ok Jack sod you approach

and "anti-woke".

Whitewavemark2

It isn’t 2 years now though is it?

Usually in May if the election year. So maybe 18 months and counting🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞

Sadly, it could be over two years. The latest the PM has to announce it is December 2024, and if he waits until then, the election won’t be until January 2025.

Bum

Siope

Whitewavemark2

It isn’t 2 years now though is it?

Usually in May if the election year. So maybe 18 months and counting🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞

Sadly, it could be over two years. The latest the PM has to announce it is December 2024, and if he waits until then, the election won’t be until January 2025.

Oh Gawd. Couldn't we just storm the Bastillle, or something?

Oh God. Can we really wait that long for a General Election?

MaizieD

Siope

Whitewavemark2

It isn’t 2 years now though is it?

Usually in May if the election year. So maybe 18 months and counting🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞

Sadly, it could be over two years. The latest the PM has to announce it is December 2024, and if he waits until then, the election won’t be until January 2025.

Oh Gawd. Couldn't we just storm the Bastillle, or something?

But the Bastille only held seven prisoners. I'm not sure I want to behead thousands of people.

Maybe we don’t need to behead them. We could force them to pass a law banning second jobs for MPs. Most of the government would resign on the spot.

Forcing bankrupt MPs from holding office might be a start.

growstuff

Forcing bankrupt MPs from holding office might be a start.

Isn't that an automatic disqualification?

That's what twitter was saying the other day. I'm off to google...

Aaah, it appears the rules have changed slightly

Under parliamentary rules, sitting MPs who are declared bankrupt do not have to step aside unless a more severe bankruptcy restrictions order is made against them, which can be imposed if the bankrupt refuses to cooperate with the process or is suspected of hiding assets.

www.theguardian.com/money/2022/dec/13/adam-afriyie-says-he-will-not-quit-as-conservative-mp-after-bankruptcy-order

MaizieD

growstuff

Forcing bankrupt MPs from holding office might be a start.

Isn't that an automatic disqualification?

That's what twitter was saying the other day. I'm off to google...

Apparently not.

Much as I dream of a Labour government, I don’t think a massive majority is good for democracy. Then again I have total faith in Keir doing what’s best for the country in every way possible.

People are always complaining that Parliament is not properly representative of the population. Having an MP who has been declared bankrupt is surely a positive step towards greater diversity.