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Don't look at public sector pay through the wrong end of the economic telescope

(33 Posts)
MaizieD Thu 15-Dec-22 12:23:40

I'm posting this as a separate thread so it doesn't get lost in one of the NHS threads we already have running.

I almost called it 'Look, I'm not an economic nutter' grin

I think it's relevant not only to current demands for increased public sector pay, but also to how we fund the NHS.

Anne Pettifor, economist, says clearly that 'Taxes Don't Fund Spending' (so growstuff & I haven't plucked this idea out of thin air, economists are saying it, which is why we say it)

She explains in this post, which is worth reading in full:

annpettifor.substack.com/p/to-pay-for-nurses-wage-rises-raise?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

This quote reiterates what I have said time and time again

(state spending).... if invested in people and infrastructure (like hospitals, railways or universities) spending will generate income in the form of tax revenues for the government. This is because the individuals, households and firms that are beneficiaries of that spending, pay taxes on their income, profits and capital gains - via PAYE and other means of tax collection.

Importantly, they only pay taxes after they have earned income - at the end of the week, month or year.

Once earned, individuals, households and firms spend and invest their new, higher income. They spend on goods, on rent, on food, and on services provided by for example, football clubs, lawyers, accountants, musicians, artists etc. That spending generates additional tax revenues for government, this time paid by football clubs, firms, shops, landlords, farmers, lawyers, musicians etc.

And these taxpayers don’t just pay once; they continue paying taxes for months and even years after receiving a pay rise or government contract.

In other words, tax revenues are multiplied for government by its investment or spending on higher incomes and infrastructure.

*There is no need to raise taxes to fund spending*.

Here she explains how what is being said by politicians, the media and some economic institutions is wrong.

Let us begin the rebuttal with the BBC’s lunchtime news on 13 December - listened to by millions.

Ben Zaranko of the IFS was invited on and declared that to offer higher pay to nurses (something he agreed was necessary to retain essential workers) government:

“would have to provide more funding and that might require them to raise taxes.”

This trope “we can only afford to raise nurse’s pay if we make everyone else pay with higher taxes” is repeated endlessly by microeconomists of the IFS, by BBC journalists (with honourable exceptions) and by politicians.

Ever since 2010, we at PRIME have tried to explain that IFS staff consistently peer at the British economy through the wrong end of a telescope, distorting their analysis. In other words, they view the government’s budget in much the same way as a household might assess the impact of income and expenditure on a family’s budget.

But the government’s budget cannot be judged through a micro-economic lens.

^ The government does not raise finance from taxes ^ (I can't get this to format properly sad )

She disagrees with MMT economists that the government doesn't need to 'borrow' to spend, but that's a minor point here. They both say essentially the same thing , that taxation doesn't fund spending.

This gives us a whole new perspective on how to view the UK's economy and how to judge proposed spending plans.

The question to ask is 'How will this benefit our citizens and the national economy', not, 'How are you going to pay for it?'

I hope you can see its relevance to the question of NHS funding and claims that we don't have to make a financial contribution to fund it. There may be excellent psychological or social reasons for asking for an upfront financial contribution through 'insurance', but it's not strictly necessary.

P.S. 'microeconomics' looks at the economic behaviour of a single company or institution, 'macroeconomics' looks at the economic behaviour of, sectors, or a whole country or globally..

Wheniwasyourage Thu 15-Dec-22 13:01:26

Interesting, MaizieD. Thank you. smile

NotSpaghetti Thu 15-Dec-22 13:12:40

Thought I'd just give this a bump.
👍

Aveline Thu 15-Dec-22 13:18:39

I don't think this is the right thread to post on but I couldn't find one about the nurses strike.
Having retired from NHS and knowing many nurses I'm concerned more about what happens after the strike irrespective of outcome. I know some nurses will stoutly refuse to strike and that some angrily will insist on striking. The working atmosphere afterwards is likely to be most uncomfortable and generally unhappy.
If the strike leads to a large pay increase the strikers will be scornful about non strikers reaping the benefits of their actions. Meanwhile the non strikers will be shocked and apply emotional pressure along the lines of, 'How could you abandon your poor patients?'

growstuff Thu 15-Dec-22 13:32:59

The question which needs to be asked is the real reason the government doesn't want to increase spending on public services.

Aveline Thu 15-Dec-22 14:21:34

What do you think it might be?

Quokka Thu 15-Dec-22 14:42:51

Aveline do you really think nurses are that petty?

Quokka Thu 15-Dec-22 14:48:48

MaisieD spot on!

Surely everyone knows that nurses are leaving the profession in droves. So many vacancies. And it’s not simply about pay, per se, it’s also the fact that this government seems to view them as cheap labour and does not respect them enough to come to the negotiating table.

After what the profession has been through, their dedication to duty, at the risk of their own health during Covid, it must feel like a kick in the teeth.

Remind me…who was that Baroness who pocketed millions? The PPE lobbyist?

ronib Thu 15-Dec-22 15:08:11

27 September 2022 Guardian “Britain’s cost of borrowing on international money markets has jumped above the rates paid by Greece and Italy as traders priced in a higher risk of default on Uk government debt.”

So MaizieD we don’t go down the borrowing route? We issue Uk government bonds to cover expenditure? We can’t cover all expenditure through taxation? We don’t want to have a balanced economy? Have I understood the micro economic view?

ronib Thu 15-Dec-22 15:10:02

I think I mean macro…

HousePlantQueen Thu 15-Dec-22 15:26:03

Following on from your opening post MaizieD, I find myself shouting at the tv when a Tory politician is trotted out to spout the same mantra about the country not being able to afford public sector pay rises. At the risk of sounding niaive about economics; how on earth is the economy going to grow if people are not spending? Nobody is going to buy a new coat/go out to dinner/employ a decorator or whatever, if they are struggling month after month to pay essential household costs, so to me, it seems very obvious that of any salary increase, a fair percentage of it will find its way back into the economy.

sodapop Thu 15-Dec-22 15:30:28

Exactly right MaisieD and Quokka my daughter is a highly trained and motivated mental health nurse and says her colleagues are leaving in droves. The level of responsibility they are expected to shoulder and unrealistic government targets are the main causes of burn out and stress related illness. The salaries they are paid are not commensurate with the level of responsibility and mean that few people are now entering the profession. It is sad to see committed and dedicated people leaving the job they used to love.

MaizieD Thu 15-Dec-22 16:25:09

ronib

27 September 2022 Guardian “Britain’s cost of borrowing on international money markets has jumped above the rates paid by Greece and Italy as traders priced in a higher risk of default on Uk government debt.”

So MaizieD we don’t go down the borrowing route? We issue Uk government bonds to cover expenditure? We can’t cover all expenditure through taxation? We don’t want to have a balanced economy? Have I understood the micro economic view?

Not sure that I quite understand what you are asking, ronib.

Whatever the Guardian might say, the UK doesn't borrow on the international money markets. It issues its own bonds and sells them on the bond markets. It determines the interest rate itself. They are bought by pension funds, investors etc. Sometimes the Bank of England buys them with money that it 'creates'. That's Quantitative Easing. If that happens the state owes money to itself, because it actually owns the BoE.

We are not in hoc to international money markets. Didn't Ann Pettifor explain it clearly enough?

Did the bit about taxation not funding spending pass you by? It's a very significant point which should make us voters look differently at parties' economic proposals and not be fooled by the complete myth that a national economy is the same as a household economy . No economist would tell you that it is.

Dickens Thu 15-Dec-22 16:25:38

HousePlantQueen

Following on from your opening post MaizieD, I find myself shouting at the tv when a Tory politician is trotted out to spout the same mantra about the country not being able to afford public sector pay rises. At the risk of sounding niaive about economics; how on earth is the economy going to grow if people are not spending? Nobody is going to buy a new coat/go out to dinner/employ a decorator or whatever, if they are struggling month after month to pay essential household costs, so to me, it seems very obvious that of any salary increase, a fair percentage of it will find its way back into the economy.

That Tory trope is trotted out because they know that the majority of people believe it.

How many people have studied economics - or even understand how a national economy functions?

It encourages the vilifying of "greedy" workers... who wants to bother to read the facts and figures when a right-wing headline will tell you all you need to know.

MaizieD Thu 15-Dec-22 16:31:10

growstuff

The question which needs to be asked is the real reason the government doesn't want to increase spending on public services.

The answer you will get from most lay people is that 'the country can't afford it' 👿 But you're right, knowing that we can afford it, we should be asking that question...

MaizieD Thu 15-Dec-22 16:34:11

At the risk of sounding naive about economics; how on earth is the economy going to grow if people are not spending?

Not naive at all, HPQ, it's common sense. We had it all before with Osborne's austerity, which even the IMF said was too much... We're suffering the consequences of it right now...

Hetty58 Thu 15-Dec-22 16:47:33

It's nothing new. I remember the shock of Thatcher comparing the economy to a household budget. Love or hate her (I hated) she certainly wasn't dim - so couldn't possibly have believed it. She must have known the logic behind Keynesian economics,

Incredibly, still, decades later, the same old lies are trotted out - and many do believe, even now, that 'belt tightening' is the answer (especially if it's other people doing it).

ronib Thu 15-Dec-22 16:48:01

From the BBC, The government expects to spend over £100 billion in 2022 and 2023 on debt interest more than it spends on education.
Some economists fear the government is borrowing too much, at too great a cost.
I have tried very hard to follow your economic theories Maizie D and I remain unconvinced.

Mollygo Thu 15-Dec-22 16:48:39

MaizieD thank you for that OP which explains things really clearly.
I’d also like to ask the question mentioned by growstuff below.

“The question which needs to be asked is the real reason the government doesn't want to increase spending on public services.”

If only there isn’t a rise in taxation when all these public sector pay rises are eventually sorted, it would help to reinforce the information.

Aveline Thu 15-Dec-22 16:52:03

Quokka- nurses are human!

Grantanow Thu 15-Dec-22 17:03:43

MaizieD's quote from Pettifor is quite right. Taxation follows investment rather than funding it. Ministers are glibly trotting out the tax rise mantra to push public opinion their way. If the gov't borrowed to fund pay and conditions improvements in the NHS more people would be made healthy and back into the workforce. Their wages and the increased NHS wages would lead to more tax take, a beneficial cycle. Investing in higher salaries would encourage recruitment and discourage leavers. Add to that the possibility of a sensible immigration policy and we might begin to fill the unfilled posts.

ronib Thu 15-Dec-22 17:05:33

Finance for investment purposes is borrowing via bonds. Investment projects are costed for an increase in productivity.
Financial servicing of day to day running costs is paid for by taxes.

I think the two concepts have been mixed up.

growstuff Thu 15-Dec-22 17:18:15

MaizieD

ronib

27 September 2022 Guardian “Britain’s cost of borrowing on international money markets has jumped above the rates paid by Greece and Italy as traders priced in a higher risk of default on Uk government debt.”

So MaizieD we don’t go down the borrowing route? We issue Uk government bonds to cover expenditure? We can’t cover all expenditure through taxation? We don’t want to have a balanced economy? Have I understood the micro economic view?

Not sure that I quite understand what you are asking, ronib.

Whatever the Guardian might say, the UK doesn't borrow on the international money markets. It issues its own bonds and sells them on the bond markets. It determines the interest rate itself. They are bought by pension funds, investors etc. Sometimes the Bank of England buys them with money that it 'creates'. That's Quantitative Easing. If that happens the state owes money to itself, because it actually owns the BoE.

We are not in hoc to international money markets. Didn't Ann Pettifor explain it clearly enough?

Did the bit about taxation not funding spending pass you by? It's a very significant point which should make us voters look differently at parties' economic proposals and not be fooled by the complete myth that a national economy is the same as a household economy . No economist would tell you that it is.

I think that rate is for commercial borrowers.

PS. I was on my way to a talk by Ann Pettifor in Cambridge in 2017, when I had a heart attack, so I never did get to hear what she had to say in person. :-(

growstuff Thu 15-Dec-22 17:19:39

Financial servicing of day to day running costs is paid for by taxes.

No, it isn't!

growstuff Thu 15-Dec-22 17:22:36

Mollygo

MaizieD thank you for that OP which explains things really clearly.
I’d also like to ask the question mentioned by growstuff below.

“The question which needs to be asked is the real reason the government doesn't want to increase spending on public services.”

If only there isn’t a rise in taxation when all these public sector pay rises are eventually sorted, it would help to reinforce the information.

It might be beneficial for there to some rises in taxation. Taxation has a number of purposes, including reducing the amount of money in the economy (which we don't need right now) and to redistribute wealth (which we do need).