From Matthew Lynn in the Telegraph today:
“France has the third highest debts in the world, a huge structural deficit and an ageing population that refuses to work for longer. When Macron backs down on pensions – as he inevitably will – investors will realise that the country’s social model is unsustainable and they are not going to get their money back. And the fallout from that will get very ugly.
It is hard to see how anyone in their right mind could disagree with Macron’s pension reforms. The retirement age will be modestly raised from 62 to 64 over the course of the next six years, along with minor increases in the social security contributions needed to qualify for that. It is hardly earth shattering. Even by 2030, a retirement age of 64 will be significantly lower than most comparable countries, and with an average life expectancy of 82, will still give people 18 years in which to enjoy their pension. Given that pensioners already account for a quarter of France’s population of 68 million and life expectancy is still rising, retirement ages clearly need to go up. In most countries that is not seen as controversial, especially if it is introduced in stages. In France, it is unacceptable.
Macron will back down.”
