WW 3 ..is this the reality?

Greyduster Greece feels under constant threat , whether real or imagined, from Turkey. So unsurprisingly it will want the security of NATO.

Thankyou Maddyone. Accepted. You’re right about the NATO budget though. Out of twenty nine nations, only eight are meeting their financial obligations to spend 2% of GDP on defence. Greece spends more per capita than anyone else. Germany, for all it has always had a major role in strategic planning and policy, is way down the list, and I think this sticks in the US’s craw. We have consistently met our spending targets and are currently third largest contributor. US spend is stratospheric.

Incidentally DaisyAnne these facts are not my facts, they are the facts. Why are you aggressively questioning me about undisputed facts?

DaisyAnne I already listed the facts in my post of 01.23. Why do I need to do it again?
But since you need it twice, here are the facts for you;

1) Annexation of Crimea by Putin
2) Poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko, using polonium delivered by a cup of tea in a London hotel by Russian agents
3) Attempted poisoning of the Skripals using novichov in Salisbury by Russian agents
4) One woman died and four people seriously injured by novochov in Salisbury following the attempted murder of the Skripals by Russian agents
5) The shooting down of flight MH17 over Ukraine murdering 298 people by a Russian surface to air missile which was moved into position the morning it happened

What exactly are you disputing? The above are undisputed facts. They describe Russian aggression and incursions into the sovereign land of other countries, in two cases incursions into Britain to commit illegal and aggressive acts.

Callistemon21

I think we are being fed Russian propaganda on here.

By whom and on what purpose, please?

Yes, there was a clear agreement that Ukraine would remain neutral. That cannot be denied.

The reason neither I nor Normandy girl have not put forwards possible solutions, is because there are none. CND and many ot us have been trying for decades to make people understand that MAD would only work for a short while- and that as proliferation of nuclear arms, especially smaller so-called tactical and more precise weapons, the danger would become greater. Very few listened and we now face the fact that MAD would only work until one or more mad men got involved. Even if this conflict is resolved without the use of nuclear weapons- the threat will remain, if not Putin, some other mad man. There is not way back, and no solution.

Hence the reason for real anxiety, not as an illness that can be solved by counselling or pills, but as a response to above.

I will withdraw from this conversation, because it is clear some will distort and twist, possibly because accepting that there is no solution, is impossible to bear. I get that.

maddyone

ronib

MOnica on balance, US veteran analysts are presenting a very incisive view of a potentially dangerous world scenario. Russia China axis is not something we want.
I am very disheartened by the Gransnet intelligence analysts on this forum but hey everyone is entitled to their opinion.

In my post of 1.23 I listed facts, not opinions. No one can argue with facts simply because they are facts.

They could if they are simply "your" facts and not actual facts. Perhaps you would like to list these facts so we can decide?

Monica your post at 11.42. Well said, very true.

Greyduster

Maddyone I am not an appeaser. Show me in any of my posts where I said appeasement would work. I said I didn’t believe that there was no-one inside Russia who thought that getting rid of Putin internally before their country became an all out pariah state with no place in the world was not a good idea! As for the US intelligence veterans, yes, they would fall over themselves to get rid of NATO because it would save the US a shed load of money (us too probably), but the NATO alliance is Europe’s shield and without it, Putin really would have free rein to do what Hitler did in 1940.

I must have misunderstood your post Greyduster and I apologise if I did, but glad to hear that you’re not an appeaser. Obviously no one in Russia can get rid of Putin which is why he is so very dangerous. NATO is indeed Europe’s shield and I think it fair to say that without it Putin would have few qualms about advancing further into Europe. Sadly many members of NATO have not been putting their allocated amount of money into the NATO budget during the last few years, as I understand it. Relying heavily on the US is probably not a good idea, we in Europe must show ourselves to be prepared also. Putin must believe that we refuse to accept his aggression.

Katie59

So Gransnet majority says Russia should be driven out of Ukraine whatever the cost however long it takes. With the quantity of arms that are being supplied that is not going to happen, much much more is needed.

Yes indeed, more is needed.

ronib

MOnica on balance, US veteran analysts are presenting a very incisive view of a potentially dangerous world scenario. Russia China axis is not something we want.
I am very disheartened by the Gransnet intelligence analysts on this forum but hey everyone is entitled to their opinion.

In my post of 1.23 I listed facts, not opinions. No one can argue with facts simply because they are facts.

Well said MOnica. 👍

Katie59 You really are an extremist, because people consider that any kind of peace agreement is unlikely in the near future and in the real world the war will continue. Doesn't mean that we are all red in tooth and claw and cannot wait to escalate it.

Any agreement with Putin will involve Ukraine ceding more territory to Russia, and since Putin's aim, is to rebuild the USSR. He has already occupied Crimea, also part of Ukraine and incorporated it back into Russia. he is encouraging and funding dissident groups in Georgia and Moldova, as well as in Ukraine. then we must assume that any peace agreement will only be, for hi, a stalling process until he can start again.

The reason he risked invading Ukraine was because none of the Western European countries or US did anything when he annexed Crimea, nor when he committed crimes on British soil and in other countries. He thought we were a soft touch who would roll over and just leave UKraine to its fate.

I would like to think that Putin would be defenestrated by a group of his generals, but it needs to be remembered that Putin, like all tin pot dictators surrounds himself withan immense protective shield of security forces and chooses his close confidants for their military incompetance (as the Ukraine shows) and blind loyalty. But there is one big difference between other tin pots and Putin. Most dictators are firebrand army officers, who take over in a coup and tend to descend into a decadent life of money, and cronies and wives who all take their share.

The one of the exceptions is Putin,. He has come up through the intelligence services. In a country known for its excessive connsumption of alcohol, and its association with being a real man. He is teetotal - and has always been so. He is a cold calculating psychopath.The chances of anyone getting close to him in any sense is nil. Getting close enough to be able to overthrow him is, close to next to nil. Not impossible but highly improbable.

Normandygirl

maddyone

Normandygirl
You say you don’t blame anyone for this conflict, having claimed that Putin acted illegally, but the illegal act is justified! An illegal occupation is justified apparently. That’s exactly what both Putin and Hitler said.

I have never said it was justified, but it was a clear as daylight that if provoked enough by the west that Putin would act.
The sensible thing to do in that situation is to stop the provocation. The US/West did the opposite and then we act outraged that Putin did exactly what he said he would.

The sensible thing to do in that situation is to stop the provocation

How do you suggest stopping Putin's provocation?
How do you suggest stopping him marching across Europe?

www.france24.com/en/europe/20220222-moldova-then-georgia-now-ukraine-how-russia-built-bridgeheads-into-post-soviet-space

Maddyone I am not an appeaser. Show me in any of my posts where I said appeasement would work. I said I didn’t believe that there was no-one inside Russia who thought that getting rid of Putin internally before their country became an all out pariah state with no place in the world was not a good idea! As for the US intelligence veterans, yes, they would fall over themselves to get rid of NATO because it would save the US a shed load of money (us too probably), but the NATO alliance is Europe’s shield and without it, Putin really would have free rein to do what Hitler did in 1940.

Yes I have ronib. I however acknowledge that there are as many expert opinions as there are experts, and that taking your source of intelligence on this from a publication which declares itself as ‘conservative woman’ hardly presents a balanced view of experts. We should all base our own opinions on a wide reading of expert opinions, primarily from people who are currently working in the field, and certainly not from only veteran experts.

I have to go help with my grandchildren so can’t reply you’ll be glad to hear. But have you actually read the article?

US veteran intelligence analysts live a lot further away from the Ukraine than European intelligence analysts. As Putin/Russia attempt to occupy more and more of the countries that used to make up the Soviet Block, they won't reach the US for a long time. European countries will have them on the doorstep in two shakes of a lamb's tail.

Good fences make good neighbours. Do US veteran intelligence analysts approve of arms for any and all US citizens against unspecified aggression, but not for Ukrainian ones against the overt armed aggression of Russia?

So Gransnet majority says Russia should be driven out of Ukraine whatever the cost however long it takes. With the quantity of arms that are being supplied that is not going to happen, much much more is needed.

ronib

MOnica on balance, US veteran analysts are presenting a very incisive view of a potentially dangerous world scenario. Russia China axis is not something we want.
I am very disheartened by the Gransnet intelligence analysts on this forum but hey everyone is entitled to their opinion.

Your statement is not ‘on balance’ ronib, it’s your opinion. Your opinion doesn’t carry more weight than anybody else’s.

MOnica on balance, US veteran analysts are presenting a very incisive view of a potentially dangerous world scenario. Russia China axis is not something we want.
I am very disheartened by the Gransnet intelligence analysts on this forum but hey everyone is entitled to their opinion.

Even veteran intelligent analysts are not always right.

www.conservativewoman.co.uk

Is the website. I think it’s second down on the list. Don’t forget it’s the opinion of veteran intelligence analysts.

maddyone hear,hear, hear.

The only thing the west did to provoke Putin was - doing nothing. It left him thinking he could get away with whatever he wanted because the west was too supine to stand up to him.

Normandygirl as you seem so knowledgeable, could you list the things the west did to provoke Putin, apart, of courese, of the events that maddyone listed.

ronib, please can we have a link, if you think we should read this article.

Stop arming Ukraine now, intelligence veterans warn Biden.
Article in Conservative Woman by Serena Wylde Feb 13 2023
Well worth a read.

The problem here is that ‘the west’ did absolutely nothing to provoke Putin. If anything the west did much less than it should have done when Putin invaded and annexed Crimea. Britain should have acted when Russia murdered Alexander Litvinenko by poisoning him via a cup of tea in a London hotel. Britain again gave a lees than robust response when Russia sent two agents to murder the Skripals with novichow in Salisbury and actually succeeded in murdering a British woman and causing severe injuries to four other people. These two events were clear attacks inside Britain by Russian agents acting illegally and provocatively inside a sovereign state. The Russians also succeeded in murdering 298 people on flight MH17 over Ukraine by shooting the plane down using a surface to air missile which was transported from Russia on the day of the crash.
Neither Ukraine, the west, the UK, America, Germany, the EU, NATO nor any other country or organisation is responsible for Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. The responsibility for the illegal and immoral invasion of Ukraine is the responsibility of Putin and Putin alone. The only responsibility the west bears is of tolerating illegal acts of aggression for far too long.