When it comes to actually casting your vote in a General Election, patterns have undergone massive change in recent decades. Perhaps the most significant difference is the way in which the proportion of people who usually vote the same way election after election has reduced, as has the strong, emotional commitment which in the past, was strongly based on perceived social class . Also, traditional institutions such as Trade Unions, Churches, Clubs and Societies etc. no longer exert the same influence over people’s value systems as they did in former years. The job market also has a very different appearance now, as what used to be traditional working class jobs have been eroded by the decline of heavy industry. So class is now a very poor predictor of voting patterns. It now appears that voters have become much less “party people” and are now more individualistic in their political outlook. A study which the BBC carried out into voting patterns indicated that back in 1964, about 48% of those questioned said that they identified with a particular party “very strongly”. By 2015 this figure had reduced to only 17%. So yes, both major parties still have a core vote of loyalists, but what used to be a reliable support base has significantly eroded away. The survey also showed that at the 1966 election, a mere 13% of voters switched parties, but at the 2015 election, some 40% did so.
What all this means to me is that voting patterns constantly evolve and change and “in the moment” of a particular election, are subject to immediate, specific influences. Personality comes into it, as in the Blair/Corbyn/Johnson/Truss effect, as does the ongoing clash between those who consider themselves more socially liberal, and those who express perhaps more authoritarian views. Even that contrast has become less definable in party terms, demonstrated recently by Starmer stating that “he doesn’t care” if people think that “he is a Conservative”. Blair was also similarly labelled by the far left in particular.
So how will I decide where my vote will go next time around? The much quoted “a week is a long time in politics” means that my decision will be made close to polling day, and yes, I’ll still take a slightly jaundiced look at all the worthy plans and promises. In addition, I won’t lose sight of Lewis Carroll’s Red Queen’s comment, as in “the rule is jam tomorrow and jam yesterday, but never jam today”. Wonderland indeed. I’ll also remind myself that in real terms, despite all the political science and the punditry as to what the win of a particular party might mean, on the day it’s still a gamble.. although hopefully an informed one. Bring it on…