It doesn't look as if Labour's lead is softening

Urmstongran

MaizieD

Labour intends to take us closer to the EU, Ug. Can you live with that?

I’m resigned to it now MaizieD. The Tories had their chance and blew it. I shall just go with the flow now with whatever Labour decides is best for me.

Strewth!! 😄😄😄. Welcome ug

There’s an interesting discussion on Twitter about whether voting Conservative/other right-wing party is linked to ageing, or whether it’s a result of age.

Yes, I got involved in a twitter conversation about that. I think one of the main points was that the older demographic is more (most?) likely to turn out to vote.

We saw the effect of that in the EU referendum with a lower turnout among the 'young' but we don't know if the dire state of the UK and their poor future prospects will galvanise them into making the effort for the GE.

Another unknown might be the extending of the franchise to UK citizens who live abroad who have been out of the UK too long to qualify for a vote.

There's also the question of the voter ID gerrymandering...

There was also an amusing twitter reaction from the 'saga' generation when Sunak announced he was 'on their side'. Told him what he could do with that with varying degrees of politeness. Who did he think he was kidding

I had to laugh at grannyactivist's story. We had something happen along the same lines when we were trying to negotiate the purchase of a tiny piece of land which adjoined our property. The family we were negotiating with agreed to sell it, but came back a couple of weeks later to say that they'd talked it over and couldn't sell it because 'dad wouldn't like it'. Dad had been dead for about 15 years...

Yes, that one worked. Thanks Casdon

👋 Whitewave! 😁
“If you can’t beat them …”
(I’m still going to vote for Reform though!). A protest vote of sorts of course, but still, it sends a message eh?

Actually the silver lining in this for Richard Tice is that the longer Sunak postpones the GE, the more organised Reform will become and the lower down the polls the Tories go!

MaizieD

I'll try a chart.

Unfortunately posting a twitter link isn't helpful these days as one can only read it if one is signed up to twiiter.

That won't help Thank you for doing what you can

ronib

I wonder what impact the newly redrawn constituency boundaries will have? Also it could be a long wait until the actual election… need to pace yourself!

So do I. I'm in one. Got to be a tactical vote as they were redrawn yo favour Labour.

The new constituency boundaries were carefully drawn to advantage the Conservative Party.

Polls always used to look at the National share of the vote Ronib. Many now use MRP. It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. YouGov’s MRP model correctly predicted the 2017.

MRP uses census data, such as the age and income distributions of voters in an area. You can then make granular predictions by assuming that people in a certain demographic bracket in one area – university-educated single men in their 30s, say – have similar preferences to people in the same bracket in another area. You can use this with national survey data to get more specific results.

British democracy is being “warped” by an unfair system for drawing constituency boundaries that ignores millions of “missing voters” and hugely benefits the Tories, according to a new study of official data.

British democracy is being “warped” by an unfair system for drawing constituency boundaries that ignores millions of “missing voters” and hugely benefits the Tories, according to a new study of official data.

An unbiased explanation of the constituency boundary changes.
theconversation.com/uk-constituency-boundaries-are-being-redrawn-to-make-them-more-equal-but-it-wont-save-the-conservatives-221256

I know it's important to vote but I agree with some things the Conservatives say, some things Labour stand for and much that the Green Party stands for. I also quite like a lot about the Lib Dems. So how do I vote? I wish we could vote on separate issues.

Skydancer

I know it's important to vote but I agree with some things the Conservatives say, some things Labour stand for and much that the Green Party stands for. I also quite like a lot about the Lib Dems. So how do I vote? I wish we could vote on separate issues.

Skydancer sadly as yet there is no Centrist Party. I will vote tactically to get the Conservatives out and then be most interested in who offers PR.

I don't "believe" in a socialist economy or a capitalist economy either but a mixed economy. One thing is sure ... two parties are never going to be enough.

The two big parties are both unholy coalitions of people who violently disagree.

If we had PR both of these parties could split into two or more parties whose members actually agreed with what they said they stood for.

People would be able to vote positively for politicians they agreed with, rather than negatively against the party they loathed the most.

If anyone's interested, here's the latest yougov on voting intentions by age group

AGAA4

I don't have much faith in polls and I know there are still staunch Tory voters who keep a low profile but will vote to keep Labour out.
This is worrying.

aka "Shy Tory Syndrome"

Skydancer

I know it's important to vote but I agree with some things the Conservatives say, some things Labour stand for and much that the Green Party stands for. I also quite like a lot about the Lib Dems. So how do I vote? I wish we could vote on separate issues.

Can't you just eliminate the Tories because of the way the country has been run for the past 13 years?

MaizieD

If anyone's interested, here's the latest yougov on voting intentions by age group

Interesting! Labour has an overall majority in all under 50 age groups. The Conservatives don't have an overall majority in any age group.

Bring it on! Vote Reform! Split the anti-Labour vote! It sounds good to me.

People say one thing and do another ,though. Polls are notoriously inaccurate where I live, don’t know about the UK. Also- a week is a long time in politics as they say . Anything can happen, all sorts of jiggery pokery ,at the last minute.

I agree nanna8.

Sounds egotistical, but I go by myself somewhat. I am a floating voter.
For may years, elections have gone how I thought they would/wanted.

I think I want a hung parliament this time. I havent wanted that in a long while.

In an ideal world, I would very much like the masses to abandon both main parties.
But not many seem to think like me, in that particular aspect.

I still know stanch Tory voters.
But it is the silent majority that swings things.
And we may not know what they are all thinking until after voting has been completed, and the polls have all closed.

Polls can be inaccurate to a degree, but it would be unprecedented for the margin of error to be so large that it would result in a shock win for the Tories this time. One thing Keir Starmer has proved adept at so far is having a nose for trouble and avoiding it, so tactics to discredit him personally aren’t likely to work, particularly now when the electorate is so disillusioned with the Tories - unless there is a huge skeleton in his closet we currently know nothing about. The attempt to discredit Ed Davey doesn’t appear to have had much effect either.
What struck me about this poll was just how few under fifties are planning to vote Tory, and what that will mean going forward for their prospects.

nanna8

People say one thing and do another ,though. Polls are notoriously inaccurate where I live, don’t know about the UK. Also- a week is a long time in politics as they say . Anything can happen, all sorts of jiggery pokery ,at the last minute.

The best of ours have got "notoriously" better in recent years nanna8 by using multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP).

The problem is that although the majority of polling is accurate it us on gross figures telling you how people intend to vote across the country (at this moment on this day). Even that may/will be useful when analysed by experts, but what matters are seats. All votes are not of equal value under FPTP.

Just as not all cats are black not all polling companies are equal. This does not mean they are out to mislead you but they will each have their strengths. YouGov are at the top of election polling with a couple of others.

I'll vote anyone who will keep out the Tories. Around here it's the LibDems.

Despise the Tories but not a fan of Starmer by any means. If they got rid of him they'd win by a landslide.

New boundaries and voter ID favour Tories 😐

SeaWoozle

I'll vote anyone who will keep out the Tories. Around here it's the LibDems.

Despise the Tories but not a fan of Starmer by any means. If they got rid of him they'd win by a landslide.

Whom would you replace him with? I like Angela Rayner but many, certainly on here think she's uncouth.