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It doesn't look as if Labour's lead is softening

(117 Posts)
DaisyAnneReturns Mon 29-Jan-24 09:12:03

Today's Opinium poll is interesting for those who like this sort of thing.

You can find it here twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1751334275721400502?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

I'm afraid I still can't put the charts on here and would be grateful if anyone can help.

Opinium is well regarded amongst those who know about these things. It does differ from other polls in that it awards more of the "don't knows" to the Conservatives. This is not a good or a bad thing, just something to be aware of.

The most striking thing to me is in the most important issues facing the country. Unsurprisingly, the NHS is top followed by the Economy. But is the gap that is a surprise. Health/NHS is top for 64% with Economy second with 42%!

MaizieD Wed 31-Jan-24 11:56:38

I'd boot out Rachel Reeves.

If what she's saying now is how she intends to run the economy when chancellor it'll be more booty for the wealthy and more hardship for the those at the bottom...

I really hope it's just a ploy to keep the right wing media at bay...

ronib Wed 31-Jan-24 12:49:15

MaizieD sounds like trickle down economics? Going for growth? RR wants to expand the financial sector so it might make sense. Although weren’t uncapped bonuses for bankers problematic and played a major role in the last financial crisis?

MaizieD Wed 31-Jan-24 12:58:19

Tell me how a load of parasitic speculators (i.e much of the the financial services industry) are going to drive growth? All they do is suck public money out of the economy...

The only way we will get anywhere near growth is state investment in the public sector putting more money into the domestic economy. Private investors aren't going to put money into an economy where fewer people have money to spend. They want the profits arising from consumption. No prospect of profit = no investment.

ronib Wed 31-Jan-24 13:13:28

Are bankers’ bonuses not taxed ? There’s the option of raising taxes on bonuses I suppose. But that won’t lead to a thriving investment sector which is in RR’s sights. Interesting turn of events!

MaizieD Wed 31-Jan-24 13:27:31

Tell me, ronib. What are the 'investment sector' going to invest in when they can see no profit for themselves?

Casdon Wed 31-Jan-24 13:34:32

DaisyAnneReturns

nanna8

People say one thing and do another ,though. Polls are notoriously inaccurate where I live, don’t know about the UK. Also- a week is a long time in politics as they say . Anything can happen, all sorts of jiggery pokery ,at the last minute.

The best of ours have got "notoriously" better in recent years nanna8 by using multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP).

The problem is that although the majority of polling is accurate it us on gross figures telling you how people intend to vote across the country (at this moment on this day). Even that may/will be useful when analysed by experts, but what matters are seats. All votes are not of equal value under FPTP.

Just as not all cats are black not all polling companies are equal. This does not mean they are out to mislead you but they will each have their strengths. YouGov are at the top of election polling with a couple of others.

That’s exactly why I’d encourage people to get the Sky Poll Tracker, because it’s more reliable for summarising all the polls instead of relying on one source.

ronib Wed 31-Jan-24 13:40:57

MaizieD I think there are huge potential profits in the medical sectors - new technology for cancer treatments, robotic surgery and AI. If I knew for sure, I would invest my tuppences there.

MaizieD Wed 31-Jan-24 13:53:59

Potential profits for who, ronibThe private sector selling these to the NHS state sector, or the private sector providing private treatment to those who can afford it. Two tier health care?

ronib Wed 31-Jan-24 14:05:43

I think MaizieD that the NHS will benefit enormously from advances in science. So will filter down to the NHS patients who remain the largest group of end users. Funded by the taxpayer.

furzeacre579 Wed 31-Jan-24 16:08:19

also Maisie - nearer to Muslims taking UK over as they are labour voters

MaizieD Wed 31-Jan-24 17:41:21

furzeacre579

also Maisie - nearer to Muslims taking UK over as they are labour voters

I think they'll have a job to do that. Try a fact check:

www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-will-britain-have-a-muslim-majority-by-2050

Elegran Wed 31-Jan-24 17:49:48

A lot of things are paid for directly or indirectly by the taxpayer - street lighting and police for example. Does that get pointed out every time they are mentioned, as the NHS does? Do we hear that householders who install a light outside their front-door, using a private contractor and at their own expense are subsidising the lesser beings who just use the lamp-posts provided for all inhabitants?

flappergirl Wed 31-Jan-24 21:06:43

Germanshepherdsmum

AGAA4

I don't have much faith in polls and I know there are still staunch Tory voters who keep a low profile but will vote to keep Labour out.
This is worrying.

Presumably it’s only worrying if you want to see a Labour government.

I think it's worrying for all of us. Another 5 years of this incompetent government doesn't bear thinking about.

Germanshepherdsmum Wed 31-Jan-24 21:10:57

Not worrying for me.

DaisyAnneReturns Wed 31-Jan-24 22:50:48

MaizieD

I'd boot out Rachel Reeves.

If what she's saying now is how she intends to run the economy when chancellor it'll be more booty for the wealthy and more hardship for the those at the bottom...

I really hope it's just a ploy to keep the right wing media at bay...

Do you know what they are intending to do Maizie?

I haven't heard, and dont think we will until an election is declared. I want to know what they will do, rather more than what they won't do.

There is, as they say, more than one way to skin a cat.

DaisyAnneReturns Thu 01-Feb-24 00:05:17

I knew there would be a reason why they are saying they will not reverse the threshold for bankers bonuses.

The cannot do everything straight away. If they leave this as it is the treasury will get in more than if the took a lower bonus and made up for the missing amount by

I expect all those hoping for the tax on unearned and work income to be matched, can understand that this may take some time. Meanwhile, it seems to me that the Tories have not yet caught up with the fact that RR has put one over on them - and neither have some of her own party.

DaisyAnneReturns Thu 01-Feb-24 09:49:47

My last post by by other means

Germanshepherdsmum Thu 01-Feb-24 10:34:16

I hope you’ve been listening to RR’s speech just now, extolling the virtues of the finance industry and its importance to the economy.

Siope Thu 01-Feb-24 10:51:45

As a natural Labour voter, who has always voted for them whilst living in England, I’m finding it harder and harder to justify voting for them this time.

It’s not specifically because of bankers’ bonuses. It’s a slow trickle of policy announcements that seem increasingly far from my values, and which I don’t believe shift the balance back to tackling the mess the Tories have made of just about everything.

Given I live in a Tory safe seat, where my vote genuinely won’t matter, I may well vote Green, although I will wait for the Manifestos before I decide.

ronib Thu 01-Feb-24 10:54:53

Is Rachel Reeves suggesting trickle up - growing the economy from the bottom up? How is that going to work?
I am disillusioned by now with hearing rhetoric and no detail. Mark Carney seems captivated though.

MaizieD Thu 01-Feb-24 12:38:46

I think she's depending on trickle down, ronib. And placing her faith in private investment.

I still say that the private sector won't invest where there is no profit to be made, unless they think that the public sector is going to buy their goods and services (like the technological advances in healthcare that you have great faith in).

But that's only a part of the private sector. Those expecting to make a profit from UK consumers don't have much of a prospect of success.

MaizieD Thu 01-Feb-24 12:43:12

As a natural Labour voter, who has always voted for them whilst living in England, I’m finding it harder and harder to justify voting for them this time.

That's how I feel, Siope, but they have a very good chance of dislodging the tories in my 'red wall' constituency so I'll grit my teeth and vote for them.

DaisyAnneReturns Thu 01-Feb-24 13:05:03

Siope

As a natural Labour voter, who has always voted for them whilst living in England, I’m finding it harder and harder to justify voting for them this time.

It’s not specifically because of bankers’ bonuses. It’s a slow trickle of policy announcements that seem increasingly far from my values, and which I don’t believe shift the balance back to tackling the mess the Tories have made of just about everything.

Given I live in a Tory safe seat, where my vote genuinely won’t matter, I may well vote Green, although I will wait for the Manifestos before I decide.

I would wait for the declaration of the election and the manifestos if I felt as you do Siope.

As a Democratic Centrist I am happier and happier with what I am hearing. The other day I listened to Keir Starmer speaking to the Civic Society and saying that we need private industry, civil society and the state to work together.

Anyone who only believes in only socialist economics or only capitalism is missing out on so much of what is possible.

Whitewavemark2 Thu 01-Feb-24 13:41:47

Labour needs to be prepared for a sharp closing of the polls and subsequent far fewer seated imo for a variety of reasons. I’ve outlined 4.

Voter ID - favours the older and wealthier voter, which in turn favours the Tories

The Islamic vote - Starmer’s rhetoric around the Palestinian issue.

Younger voters - traditionally they have always voted labour, but there is a distinct shift between the genders - males favouring more authoritarian figures, females becoming more empathetic and shifting to the left.

Boundary changes - Tories have gained 13 Labour have lost 6.

Casdon Thu 01-Feb-24 13:47:03

If you did a similar list for the Tories, Lib Dem’s, SNP and Reform Whitewavemark2, then did a prediction of the election result you’d be rich.