It doesn't look as if Labour's lead is softening

AGAA4

I don't have much faith in polls and I know there are still staunch Tory voters who keep a low profile but will vote to keep Labour out.
This is worrying.

aka "Shy Tory Syndrome"

If anyone's interested, here's the latest yougov on voting intentions by age group

The two big parties are both unholy coalitions of people who violently disagree.

If we had PR both of these parties could split into two or more parties whose members actually agreed with what they said they stood for.

People would be able to vote positively for politicians they agreed with, rather than negatively against the party they loathed the most.

Skydancer

I know it's important to vote but I agree with some things the Conservatives say, some things Labour stand for and much that the Green Party stands for. I also quite like a lot about the Lib Dems. So how do I vote? I wish we could vote on separate issues.

Skydancer sadly as yet there is no Centrist Party. I will vote tactically to get the Conservatives out and then be most interested in who offers PR.

I don't "believe" in a socialist economy or a capitalist economy either but a mixed economy. One thing is sure ... two parties are never going to be enough.

I know it's important to vote but I agree with some things the Conservatives say, some things Labour stand for and much that the Green Party stands for. I also quite like a lot about the Lib Dems. So how do I vote? I wish we could vote on separate issues.

An unbiased explanation of the constituency boundary changes.
theconversation.com/uk-constituency-boundaries-are-being-redrawn-to-make-them-more-equal-but-it-wont-save-the-conservatives-221256

British democracy is being “warped” by an unfair system for drawing constituency boundaries that ignores millions of “missing voters” and hugely benefits the Tories, according to a new study of official data.

British democracy is being “warped” by an unfair system for drawing constituency boundaries that ignores millions of “missing voters” and hugely benefits the Tories, according to a new study of official data.

Polls always used to look at the National share of the vote Ronib. Many now use MRP. It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. YouGov’s MRP model correctly predicted the 2017.

MRP uses census data, such as the age and income distributions of voters in an area. You can then make granular predictions by assuming that people in a certain demographic bracket in one area – university-educated single men in their 30s, say – have similar preferences to people in the same bracket in another area. You can use this with national survey data to get more specific results.

The new constituency boundaries were carefully drawn to advantage the Conservative Party.

ronib

I wonder what impact the newly redrawn constituency boundaries will have? Also it could be a long wait until the actual election… need to pace yourself!

So do I. I'm in one. Got to be a tactical vote as they were redrawn yo favour Labour.

MaizieD

I'll try a chart.

Unfortunately posting a twitter link isn't helpful these days as one can only read it if one is signed up to twiiter.

That won't help Thank you for doing what you can

Actually the silver lining in this for Richard Tice is that the longer Sunak postpones the GE, the more organised Reform will become and the lower down the polls the Tories go!

👋 Whitewave! 😁
“If you can’t beat them …”
(I’m still going to vote for Reform though!). A protest vote of sorts of course, but still, it sends a message eh?

Yes, that one worked. Thanks Casdon

There’s an interesting discussion on Twitter about whether voting Conservative/other right-wing party is linked to ageing, or whether it’s a result of age.

Yes, I got involved in a twitter conversation about that. I think one of the main points was that the older demographic is more (most?) likely to turn out to vote.

We saw the effect of that in the EU referendum with a lower turnout among the 'young' but we don't know if the dire state of the UK and their poor future prospects will galvanise them into making the effort for the GE.

Another unknown might be the extending of the franchise to UK citizens who live abroad who have been out of the UK too long to qualify for a vote.

There's also the question of the voter ID gerrymandering...

There was also an amusing twitter reaction from the 'saga' generation when Sunak announced he was 'on their side'. Told him what he could do with that with varying degrees of politeness. Who did he think he was kidding

I had to laugh at grannyactivist's story. We had something happen along the same lines when we were trying to negotiate the purchase of a tiny piece of land which adjoined our property. The family we were negotiating with agreed to sell it, but came back a couple of weeks later to say that they'd talked it over and couldn't sell it because 'dad wouldn't like it'. Dad had been dead for about 15 years...

Urmstongran

MaizieD

Labour intends to take us closer to the EU, Ug. Can you live with that?

I’m resigned to it now MaizieD. The Tories had their chance and blew it. I shall just go with the flow now with whatever Labour decides is best for me.

Strewth!! 😄😄😄. Welcome ug

MaizieD

Casdon

For anybody who is a bit of a politics nerd, it’s worth signing up to the Sky Poll Tracker app. It is a running percentage, updated every week, of all election poll results.
news.sky.com/story/sky-news-poll-tracker-how-are-political-parties-performing-as-an-election-looms-12903488

I tried your link, Casdon. It takes me to the explanation of how their tracker works, but it's not showing me the actual tracker.

news.sky.com/topic/poll-7187
I think this one has the link, I downloaded it ages ago and I can’t find how I signed up, sorry.

MaizieD

Labour intends to take us closer to the EU, Ug. Can you live with that?

I’m resigned to it now MaizieD. The Tories had their chance and blew it. I shall just go with the flow now with whatever Labour decides is best for me.

Let me re-phrase part of my previous post: the 50+ cohort are not as likely to vote for the right as the current 65+ cohort were when we were that age (generalisation because that’s how political polling works).

This is interesting from Statista. Voting intentions (as at this month) by age

www.statista.com/statistics/1379439/uk-election-polls-by-age/

There’s an interesting discussion on Twitter about whether voting Conservative/other right-wing party is linked to ageing, or whether it’s a result of age.

Given the 50+ cohort (in this survey and elsewhere) are not moving rightwards, and due to some other lifestyle data and persuasive viewpoints, I’m thinking it’s age, not ageing. Anyone agree or disagree?

And please don’t shoot the messenger; I don’t determine, or necessarily agree with, the wide 65+ cohort that is routinely used.

GSM It's worrying because despite being disillusioned by their party Tory voters will vote for them mostly
to keep Labour out.
I live in Wales where there is a Labour government and I won't be voting for them but it's almost certain that Labour will win here.

I was listening to a woman on the bus this morning and she spent almost an hour minutes denigrating the Conservative party. She railed against our local (Tory) MP who she described as a “useless waste of space” and complained about Rishi Sunak being out of touch and leading the most corrupt and dishonest government the UK has seen, she complained about how the NHS has been ruined, the police are underfunded etc. etc.

So I, and I suspect from the reaction most other listeners were too, was flabbergasted when she finally said she won’t enjoy voting Conservative this year, but it had to be done to keep labour out. The woman next to (not with) her pointed out that the local opposition are LibDems not Labour, at which point she said she would still have to vote Conservative because her dad would turn in his grave if she didn’t. She’d already said she’s 77 years old! 🤯

Casdon

For anybody who is a bit of a politics nerd, it’s worth signing up to the Sky Poll Tracker app. It is a running percentage, updated every week, of all election poll results.
news.sky.com/story/sky-news-poll-tracker-how-are-political-parties-performing-as-an-election-looms-12903488

I tried your link, Casdon. It takes me to the explanation of how their tracker works, but it's not showing me the actual tracker.

AGAA4

I don't have much faith in polls and I know there are still staunch Tory voters who keep a low profile but will vote to keep Labour out.
This is worrying.

Presumably it’s only worrying if you want to see a Labour government.

This map lets you see notional changes to results in the new constituencies (pop in your postcode for your own). It lets you see which parties are competitive in the new constituencies which can be used to consider if you might want to vote tactically.

www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jan/16/find-your-constituency-uk-general-election-2024-boundary-changes-votes-map-postcode?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

There are some stats in the accompanying article about what the changes mean for the two main parties.