Atlantic Ocean circulation nearing ‘devastating’ tipping point

Katie59

MaizieD

I don't think that I am the unhinged one, Katie59.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/record-breaking-rainfall-more-likely-due-to-climate-change

You are unhinged if you envisage rice growing in SW UK

I agree there may well be more rainfall in the future, having a monsoon climate to grow rice is not likely at this latitude.

OMG. You didn't think I was serious, did you?😂

Whether or no we can grow rice will be the least of our worries. And you don't need a monsoon climate for rice. The north of Italy produces a huge amount. What may be catastrophic will be the changes in sea temperatures which will affect all life in the sea in ways we can't yet imagine. We are already seeing changes in migration patterns which may have a a serious effect on our future.

And optimistic. Special fried rice with your haggis, anyone?

Looks as though Scottish experiments are under way.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyaGhHQi5NY

Camargue is currently the most northern place that rice is commercially grown.

It is not a great leap of imagination to suggest that with climate change it could be possible to grow in the U.K.

Climate change is what this thread is about- hmm, could there be a change to monsoons, perhaps, even in SW? More heat, different rainfall patterns - since change means that things would not be as we are accustomed to experience them then it is possible!

MaizieD

I don't think that I am the unhinged one, Katie59.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/record-breaking-rainfall-more-likely-due-to-climate-change

You are unhinged if you envisage rice growing in SW UK

I agree there may well be more rainfall in the future, having a monsoon climate to grow rice is not likely at this latitude.

With warmer, wetter weather come more pests and diseases so farmers will have even more to contend with.

I don't think that I am the unhinged one, Katie59.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/record-breaking-rainfall-more-likely-due-to-climate-change

Katie59

You really are unhinged if you think like that, we have had wet spells and some floods but nothing that hasn’t happened over the past century. There have been localized crop losses but most have been harvested in good condition, wet weather in October did make planting crops difficult, most did get done. It’s many years since we have had a cold hard winter, mild winters do help farmers. We havn’t had a serious drought since 1976, in this area the highest flood was in 1998 at 2.7 metres above normal, this year highest was just .9 metres, some cars stranded and a few riverside properties flooded, yet it was international news.

The big issue with food production is low prices, nobody is making money out of farming, that is why protests are happening across Europe, farmers can cope with weather variations but not low prices.

Regarding the floods, Katie59, I too remember the floods of 98 in our region. They were horrendous, leading to some deaths, and we haven't had anything nearly that bad since.

But that is almost certainly down to the changes to our rivers that were subsequently made to try to stop it from happening again
I am quite sure that without action, it would have happened again, possibly several times and possibly even worse, because we have certainly had equally heavy and sustained rainfall on quite a few occasions since, and it seems to be becoming more frequent.

There must be a lot of areas where the same is true - that the reason we are not yet seeing more and worse flooding is because of measures put in place to mitigate it. There will be limits though, both practical and financial, as to how long those measures will be enough and what else can be done, so we mustn't get complacent.

You really are unhinged if you think like that, we have had wet spells and some floods but nothing that hasn’t happened over the past century. There have been localized crop losses but most have been harvested in good condition, wet weather in October did make planting crops difficult, most did get done. It’s many years since we have had a cold hard winter, mild winters do help farmers. We havn’t had a serious drought since 1976, in this area the highest flood was in 1998 at 2.7 metres above normal, this year highest was just .9 metres, some cars stranded and a few riverside properties flooded, yet it was international news.

The big issue with food production is low prices, nobody is making money out of farming, that is why protests are happening across Europe, farmers can cope with weather variations but not low prices.

GrannyGravy13

I foresee paddy fields across swathes of the South West…

I was thinking that

Brown rice is a very healthy food...

I foresee paddy fields across swathes of the South West…

MaizieD

Katie59

There is no doubt the climate is changing, how that affects the UK is not certain by any means, in the short term warmer weather looks likely.

As for farming and food production, there will be positives as well as negatives, crops are grown in much more extreme climates, we only get localized flooding in the UK other countries get floods covering millions of acres regularly. Warmer weather may mean the crops like Soya, Grain Maize and Sunflower, even Grapes, can be more widely grown, farmers will adapt, as they always have.

You've neatly sidestepped the wetter weather, haven't you, Katie59?

How are farmers going to harvest these wonderful new crops (though we've been growing grapes in the UK for a long, long time) on totally waterlogged soils without destroying the soil structure and so decreasing soil fertility?

😄😄

I think katie59 is a post of wishful thinking.

As little people all we as individuals can do is our best.

Those who have families in far flung corners of the world will still visit, I expect those who can will replace their cars, phones, tablets, white goods and anything else they need all of these use water, minerals along with other resources.

I am ,just saddened each year by the ineffectiveness of these junkets or as they are commonly known COP’s.

ronib

Elegran So how do you explain that the biggest inversions of climate change happened in the past when there were NO humans to effect or influence that change? Yet now humans are thought to be solely responsible for climate changes.

Please note that the tipping model is a MODEL forecast on seven times more volume of water than exists at the moment and so well into the future that humans may well be living on another planet by then.

They happened more slowly without expert human assistance.

My point was that IF the predicted model DOES turn out to be true then we will all be in the Doo-doo at some point, and it would be worth making sure that it DOESN'T come to pass.

Too many people are claiming that it couldn't possibly happen so we can just ignore any signs that it might do.

Katie59

There is no doubt the climate is changing, how that affects the UK is not certain by any means, in the short term warmer weather looks likely.

As for farming and food production, there will be positives as well as negatives, crops are grown in much more extreme climates, we only get localized flooding in the UK other countries get floods covering millions of acres regularly. Warmer weather may mean the crops like Soya, Grain Maize and Sunflower, even Grapes, can be more widely grown, farmers will adapt, as they always have.

You've neatly sidestepped the wetter weather, haven't you, Katie59?

How are farmers going to harvest these wonderful new crops (though we've been growing grapes in the UK for a long, long time) on totally waterlogged soils without destroying the soil structure and so decreasing soil fertility?

Elegran So how do you explain that the biggest inversions of climate change happened in the past when there were NO humans to effect or influence that change? Yet now humans are thought to be solely responsible for climate changes.

Please note that the tipping model is a MODEL forecast on seven times more volume of water than exists at the moment and so well into the future that humans may well be living on another planet by then.

Bcause it is happening at a scale fast enough for them to notice the difference, and too fast for them to gradually change their settlement areas to more liveable places, or alter their several billion lifestyles to suit. The biggest inversions of the past took place when there were no humans.

If the "tipping points" that may soon be reached turn out to be real, and temperatures do rise unstoppably, a very wide band around the equator and the tropics and beyond could become hot deserts unable to support human life, due to the fierce temperatures and the ferocious subsequent storms, agriculture could be impossible and whole populations could be seeking new homelands at the slightly cooler poles.

Those who deny that there is even a possibility that this would happen have their heads in the sand. If it is possible then there should be forward planning to minimise the likelihood and to be prepared to try to mitigate the effects.

There is no doubt that climate has always changed from the beginning of time. Why have humans just discovered climate change in the last century?

There is no doubt the climate is changing, how that affects the UK is not certain by any means, in the short term warmer weather looks likely.

As for farming and food production, there will be positives as well as negatives, crops are grown in much more extreme climates, we only get localized flooding in the UK other countries get floods covering millions of acres regularly. Warmer weather may mean the crops like Soya, Grain Maize and Sunflower, even Grapes, can be more widely grown, farmers will adapt, as they always have.

nanna8

Wait long enough and global warming becomes global freezing. Why don’t they just call it global changing? In the particular part of the world where I live it has actually levelled out- not so hot as it once was ten, twenty years ago but not so cold in Winter,either. We don’t get frosts much anymore but we don’t get 40C plus heat for more than a couple of days at a time. We used to get both every year. I believe it is similar in parts of the UK.

Well, it as known as Climate Change, too. Which is a fair description of what is happening.

We're getting warmer winters, too. Summers are patchy, but what we are getting is almost incessant rain. The ground is so saturated that even a light rain shower makes puddles because there's nowhere for it to go.

It's not a good situation for agriculture, waterlogged fields are no more productive than baked dry ones.

Elegran

So it is the fault of the media who splash a sensational version of the conclusions, without checking their logic, not of the reputable scientists.

The media companies are there to make money, the more sensational their content the more they make. It doesn't have to be factual, true or honest. They promote environmental content in the same way as Politics and Celebrity content and I hope we all realize how scurrilous much of that is.

Or maybe some don’t.

Wait long enough and global warming becomes global freezing. Why don’t they just call it global changing? In the particular part of the world where I live it has actually levelled out- not so hot as it once was ten, twenty years ago but not so cold in Winter,either. We don’t get frosts much anymore but we don’t get 40C plus heat for more than a couple of days at a time. We used to get both every year. I believe it is similar in parts of the UK.

Well said, undines!!