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Follow the Polls

(710 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Thu 23-May-24 07:29:20

I am not sure if it will be possible over the next 42 days, but I thought it would be fun to try to see. How the polls perform after the various gaffs that the politicians will inevitably make.

Whilst the gap is huge at the moment, it will almost certainly close as the days go by.

I think I’ll use Politico (poll of polls)

Iam64 Sun 09-Jun-24 18:23:51

Grannygravy13 - I’m catching up so responding late to your concerns that Starmer may be held back by the left, as Conservatives have been dictated to by their right.
I’m not so worried. I voted Starmer and I’m reasonably happy so far. ‘The left’ in my constituency, aka the activists historically dislike Starmer and would have preferred their own candidate to stand in this election. ‘That lot in London’ prevented their name going forward. I’ve no doubt this was because they only left Momentum a couple of weeks before throwing their hat in the ring.
There are muttering about getting rid of Starmer post election. Sadly for them, the ‘moderates’ are fully behind our candidate and Starmer
You don’t get to head the CPS. Be a QC or run an argumentative Labour Party without a ruthless streak. I’m hoping we will be ok. I see Starmer and Rayner as a good match/mix and then we have Wes Streeting, Yvette Cooper, Rachel Reeeves, Lamy, Jess Phillips and many more. Wanders off singing the Manc anthem Always Look On The Bright Side Of Life de dum ……

Dickens Sun 09-Jun-24 14:51:53

Casdon

It would be wonderful if party selection processes worked well so that we don’t have sexual predators, conspiracy theorists, bullies, dishonesty or any other such MPs next time round, in any of the parties. I’d love to see parliament transform into a respectable and respectful institution.

Quite!

They are selected, approved - then weeded out afterward!

Casdon Sun 09-Jun-24 14:34:24

It would be wonderful if party selection processes worked well so that we don’t have sexual predators, conspiracy theorists, bullies, dishonesty or any other such MPs next time round, in any of the parties. I’d love to see parliament transform into a respectable and respectful institution.

Dinahmo Sun 09-Jun-24 14:24:23

This is of interest.

www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/09/crank-tory-candidates-accused-of-sharing-online-conspiracy-theories

Whitewavemark2 Sun 09-Jun-24 14:21:06

Are we following theirs as well as our own

😄 could do I suppose, as I am getting board with ours not moving.

Although there is a suggestion that Labour is increasing it’s lead, but it hardly matters with the huge lead they apparently have.

I’m worried that it is all a mirage.

Whitewavemark2 Sun 09-Jun-24 14:17:15

😄😄 I’m sort of going on what happened to UKIP when they were exposed to be a load of charlatans. Apparently none of the Reform candidates have been vetted😮😮 so goodness knows what they are hiding!

Dickens Sun 09-Jun-24 14:15:52

Whitewavemark2

Biden is now leading Trump in the polls

Biden 49%

Trump 45%

Yippee

Are we following theirs as well as our own? grin

If Biden is leading and even wins the presidency, then there will be trouble. Trump has more or less said - or certainly implied - that he expects to win. He's not going to accept defeat a second time. And neither will his fanatical supporters.

By comparison, our own political environment is far less stressful - regardless of the outcome.

MaizieD Sun 09-Jun-24 13:23:20

^ as I’ve said on another thread, once the candidates credentials become obvious, support for reform will fall away.^

You're more confident than me, then, Wwmk2 😁

If they can swallow Farage I think they'll swallow anyone...

Whitewavemark2 Sun 09-Jun-24 12:56:30

I’ve seen one poll that has Reform level with the Tories, but it won’t last because as I’ve said on another thread, once the candidates credentials become obvious, support for reform will fall away.

Casdon Sun 09-Jun-24 12:45:17

news.sky.com/story/last-minute-dash-for-seats-makes-douglas-ross-and-richard-holden-look-like-a-self-serving-elite-13148901
Some controversy - interesting because it means there is still time for manoeuvring to bring some familiar faces back, maybe in more than one party - I wonder if all seats now have candidates?

Whitewavemark2 Sun 09-Jun-24 11:37:33

Biden is now leading Trump in the polls

Biden 49%

Trump 45%

Yippee

DiamondLily Sat 08-Jun-24 18:40:30

Regardless of debates, I think most people know who they intend voting for.

I think these debates are tedious - they all just shout over each other.

The polls don’t seem to be shifting much anyway,

Whitewavemark2 Sat 08-Jun-24 16:24:23

Yes, I really thought that the polls would show more movement - it is getting boring.

The right wing press must be pretty desperate to pin a boo-boo on Starmer, which is why I think that they are playing it so safe and boring. They aren’t going to give an inch if they can help it, and i don’t blame them.

It was noticeable in the last nights debate, - Rayner was so unlike herself, as she is a good debater - but she gave Mordaunt quite a bit of rope, and Mordaunt duly hung herself.

Casdon Sat 08-Jun-24 16:12:57

Whitewavemark2

He’s been booted out of the Labour Party. So that problem solved.

No change in polls.

Be interested to see if Sunak’s abysmal behaviour makes a difference.

Yes, a long time ago - it just struck me as one of the least likely attempts to return to politics ever.

The poll summary seems immune to everything that’s happening, there are lots of ‘shock results’ being reported, but they must be the extremes because it’s not affecting anything overall. I think the seat predictor was one of the best, purely because it had a huge sample of electors compared to most polls.

Whitewavemark2 Sat 08-Jun-24 16:07:17

He’s been booted out of the Labour Party. So that problem solved.

No change in polls.

Be interested to see if Sunak’s abysmal behaviour makes a difference.

Dickens Fri 07-Jun-24 23:54:20

Casdon

Goodness me. I can’t believe this is going to be a successful comeback.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv223v2qqn3o

Good grief!

I'm not clutching my pearls, but those accusations really were unsavoury.

And the bullying of a female staff member - allegedly once likening her to a prostitute.

He was told he should've been ashamed of his behaviour. Clearly, he isn't.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 07-Jun-24 17:37:38

😄😄 I meant the impact of the ham fisted mess Sunak is making, not the polls😄😄

Casdon Fri 07-Jun-24 17:27:20

Whitewavemark2

The £2000 lie hadn’t made any difference. Perhaps it’s cumulative?

It is cumulative, it’s all polls conducted by companies registered with the Polling Council over the previous 28 days I think, for Sky anyway.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 07-Jun-24 16:37:54

The £2000 lie hadn’t made any difference. Perhaps it’s cumulative?

DiamondLily Fri 07-Jun-24 16:35:14

Well, after the D-Day fiasco, and the exposed lie by Sunak, it’ll be interesting to see the polls on Sunday night/Monday morning.

Casdon Fri 07-Jun-24 15:55:19

Whitewavemark2

Casdon

Goodness me. I can’t believe this is going to be a successful comeback.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv223v2qqn3o

Surely they could have found someone else?

I know, I was, to coin a phrase, gobsmacked.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 07-Jun-24 14:39:31

Casdon

Goodness me. I can’t believe this is going to be a successful comeback.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv223v2qqn3o

Surely they could have found someone else?

Casdon Fri 07-Jun-24 13:58:02

Goodness me. I can’t believe this is going to be a successful comeback.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv223v2qqn3o

Whitewavemark2 Fri 07-Jun-24 08:17:41

Urmstongran

^Once many of the candidates come under scrutiny and found severely wanting because of their racism, criminal record or just plain wanting- their support will drop away^

Oh come on Whitewave I’m sure Labour aren’t that bad….

😀😀.

You’ve just to keep your fingers crossed.

Urmstongran Fri 07-Jun-24 08:14:25

Once many of the candidates come under scrutiny and found severely wanting because of their racism, criminal record or just plain wanting- their support will drop away

Oh come on Whitewave I’m sure Labour aren’t that bad….