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Follow the Polls

(710 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Thu 23-May-24 07:29:20

I am not sure if it will be possible over the next 42 days, but I thought it would be fun to try to see. How the polls perform after the various gaffs that the politicians will inevitably make.

Whilst the gap is huge at the moment, it will almost certainly close as the days go by.

I think I’ll use Politico (poll of polls)

Oreo Fri 24-May-24 10:55:32

Whitewavemark2
How can you agree with both me and Casdon on this aspect?
Tbf it was me that agreed with you when you said that Starmer needs to make waves soon and that invisibility won’t cut it.
It won’t.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 24-May-24 10:47:56

Country’s 😡

Whitewavemark2 Fri 24-May-24 10:47:24

Casdon

Oreo

Whitewavemark2

Day 1 passed without any notable incident.

Sunak, however did manage to peeve the Welsh over their failure to make the grade in the European football, and was caught out planting Tory councillors in order to get easy questions in the biscuit factory. He also seems intent on a one man success in breaking the U.K. carbon footprint in his jet.

Starmer seems to have managed to have got away without any incident, invisibility won’t cut it though, and he needs to make waves soon.

No movement in the polls.

You’re dead right, invisibility won’t cut it.I think he hopes to do and say as little as possible in the next six weeks but that won’t appeal to voters.
I heard his interview this morning on radio 4 and tho he seemed to be as honest as a politician is able about what can be achieved if he becomes PM, it wasn’t exactly inspiring.

I think you’ve misjudged his intention. He’s very visible in terms of TV and other interviews. Exposure isn’t an issue for him, he’s trying to distance himself from the gimmicks and slanging matches, and appeal to voters by coming across as pragmatic and competent. Whether he’ll succeed I don’t know, but that’s definitely his game.

Yes, absolutely.

We know that Starmer is keen to take politics back to a much less performative circus, where integrity, honesty and standards are expected from the countries leader,

Wyllow3 Fri 24-May-24 10:45:44

Casdon

"I think you’ve misjudged his intention. He’s very visible in terms of TV and other interviews. Exposure isn’t an issue for him, he’s trying to distance himself from the gimmicks and slanging matches, and appeal to voters by coming across as pragmatic and competent. Whether he’ll succeed I don’t know, but that’s definitely his game."

Yes, thats why I respect him. I'm fed up of gimmicks and oven ready social media one liners I'll go for thoughtful and considered now after the last few years.

Oreo Fri 24-May-24 10:44:20

The Tories will hammer that message home ( about Reform) I bet, or will be stupid if they don’t.

growstuff Fri 24-May-24 10:40:35

Urmstongran

Analysis for The Telegraph by the polling group More in Common found that if Reform secures 9 per cent of the vote the Conservatives will win 35 fewer seats as a result.

However, if it won 14 per cent, a level at which it has consistently polled in recent months, then the impact would be even starker, costing the Tories 64 MPs.

I hope that's persuaded you to vote for Reform wink.

Urmstongran Fri 24-May-24 10:24:47

Analysis for The Telegraph by the polling group More in Common found that if Reform secures 9 per cent of the vote the Conservatives will win 35 fewer seats as a result.

However, if it won 14 per cent, a level at which it has consistently polled in recent months, then the impact would be even starker, costing the Tories 64 MPs.

Oreo Fri 24-May-24 10:20:49

Did he tell you that Casdon?
No future possible PM wants to balls things up for themselves in the time leading up to the vote, they can get caught out, mixed up, look silly and so on.Keeping as low a profile as they can would minimise chances of that.Add to that he isn’t a natural showboater and can seem dull at times.I know that none of that should matter but at election time it usually does.

Casdon Fri 24-May-24 10:12:20

Oreo

Whitewavemark2

Day 1 passed without any notable incident.

Sunak, however did manage to peeve the Welsh over their failure to make the grade in the European football, and was caught out planting Tory councillors in order to get easy questions in the biscuit factory. He also seems intent on a one man success in breaking the U.K. carbon footprint in his jet.

Starmer seems to have managed to have got away without any incident, invisibility won’t cut it though, and he needs to make waves soon.

No movement in the polls.

You’re dead right, invisibility won’t cut it.I think he hopes to do and say as little as possible in the next six weeks but that won’t appeal to voters.
I heard his interview this morning on radio 4 and tho he seemed to be as honest as a politician is able about what can be achieved if he becomes PM, it wasn’t exactly inspiring.

I think you’ve misjudged his intention. He’s very visible in terms of TV and other interviews. Exposure isn’t an issue for him, he’s trying to distance himself from the gimmicks and slanging matches, and appeal to voters by coming across as pragmatic and competent. Whether he’ll succeed I don’t know, but that’s definitely his game.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 24-May-24 10:07:28

Oreo

Whitewavemark2

Day 1 passed without any notable incident.

Sunak, however did manage to peeve the Welsh over their failure to make the grade in the European football, and was caught out planting Tory councillors in order to get easy questions in the biscuit factory. He also seems intent on a one man success in breaking the U.K. carbon footprint in his jet.

Starmer seems to have managed to have got away without any incident, invisibility won’t cut it though, and he needs to make waves soon.

No movement in the polls.

You’re dead right, invisibility won’t cut it.I think he hopes to do and say as little as possible in the next six weeks but that won’t appeal to voters.
I heard his interview this morning on radio 4 and tho he seemed to be as honest as a politician is able about what can be achieved if he becomes PM, it wasn’t exactly inspiring.

If you are looking for massive charisma, and a personality full of charm and wit, you will not get it in Starmer.

However, I am more than content to get a prime minister of integrity, honesty and strength.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 24-May-24 10:05:10

Interviews.

I think some are not understanding the point of Starmer’s refusal to take part in a weekly circus of debates.

First - he will not allow Sunak to call the shots and has decided that 2 debates are sufficient for them both to get their points across.

Second - Starmer is without doubt the better performer - PMQs are a prime example. Sunak does get tetchy and patronising under pressure - but Starmer is keen to turn politics back to greater integrity and higher standards rather than performative type of politics that we have seen , particularly over the past few years, where the message is all and delivery extremely hit and miss.

Oreo Fri 24-May-24 10:04:24

Whitewavemark2

Day 1 passed without any notable incident.

Sunak, however did manage to peeve the Welsh over their failure to make the grade in the European football, and was caught out planting Tory councillors in order to get easy questions in the biscuit factory. He also seems intent on a one man success in breaking the U.K. carbon footprint in his jet.

Starmer seems to have managed to have got away without any incident, invisibility won’t cut it though, and he needs to make waves soon.

No movement in the polls.

You’re dead right, invisibility won’t cut it.I think he hopes to do and say as little as possible in the next six weeks but that won’t appeal to voters.
I heard his interview this morning on radio 4 and tho he seemed to be as honest as a politician is able about what can be achieved if he becomes PM, it wasn’t exactly inspiring.

Nicenanny3 Fri 24-May-24 10:02:39

Because Starmer can't debate can he, he reads from a script on PMQs.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 24-May-24 09:54:58

Nicenanny3

Whitewavemark2

Interviews

It is accepted standard procedure for the leaders to take part in two debates

One on BBC

One on ITV

Sunak is keen to do one a week, but Starmer has said that they must keep to accepted procedure.

So we will see that leaders debates, but it will not be turned into a weekly circus as Sunak wants.

More likely a weekly loss for Starmer

Why?

Nicenanny3 Fri 24-May-24 09:46:16

Whitewavemark2

Interviews

It is accepted standard procedure for the leaders to take part in two debates

One on BBC

One on ITV

Sunak is keen to do one a week, but Starmer has said that they must keep to accepted procedure.

So we will see that leaders debates, but it will not be turned into a weekly circus as Sunak wants.

More likely a weekly loss for Starmer

RosiesMaw Fri 24-May-24 09:44:48

Casdon

Whitewavemark2

Apparently there was a Tory councillor plant in an audience giving Sunak easy questions at McVities warehouse.

This is such an idiotic basic error.

You could almost say it took the biscuit….

That’s the way the cookie crumbles hmm

Whitewavemark2 Fri 24-May-24 09:40:35

Interviews

It is accepted standard procedure for the leaders to take part in two debates

One on BBC

One on ITV

Sunak is keen to do one a week, but Starmer has said that they must keep to accepted procedure.

So we will see that leaders debates, but it will not be turned into a weekly circus as Sunak wants.

winterwhite Fri 24-May-24 09:18:13

I’m disappointed in KS re interviews. It’s how the nation gets to hear his priorities in depth. Trouble is, public speaking is not his strength. He doesn’t have a good voice and he can’t keep up being fast on his feet for long.
A mix of cabinet ministers / shadows would suit Labour better and in fact might be better all round. Certainly more interesting.

(Just noticed through for threw in my last. Never mind.)

Wyllow3 Fri 24-May-24 09:13:08

I think I have little appetite for more than 3 interviews and I doubt many of the public have either.

This "macho standoff" "knives out" approach to politics is just posturing by Sunak and I'm fed up of that sort of politics.

I'd prefer an approach that features other people in the cabinet/shadow cabinet on policy areas.

Urmstongran Fri 24-May-24 09:10:43

Bill Cash bows out too apparently.

Urmstongran Fri 24-May-24 09:03:19

Had to laugh hearing that Starmer has been dubbed ‘The Knight with No Fight’ regards the 6 tv interviews. He says he won’t do weekly interviews but will do a couple.

Nothing wrong with that in a busy schedule.
The knives are out.

winterwhite Fri 24-May-24 08:56:05

John Redman is the sort of man who could not bear to lose. No surprise there.
Don’t think Sunak can be blamed for the biscuit factory ex that his announcement through everyone in a panic.
I’m interested in watching Angela Rayner. She’s generally a good complement to KS in public. I hope she won’t be suppressed because of this house business or thought not to be popular with some voters.

Urmstongran Fri 24-May-24 08:49:01

I don’t believe Farage for one moment. He’s got bigger fish (more lucrative?) to fry. His GBNews slot, his alignment with Trump this autumn. In fact Ben Habib (deputy leader of Reform UK) said just now he hadn’t heard from Farage about standing. I think Farage is full of his own celebrity these days.

Casdon Fri 24-May-24 08:39:17

John Redwood, Tory MP for Wokingham, a bastion of the right is standing down - he must be in his seventies I would think, he’s been around for donkeys years.

Jeremy Corbyn is standing as an independent, interestingly not for Momentum (what happened there?), or for the Workers Party of Britain.

Joseann Fri 24-May-24 07:52:03

Looks like a fair summary to me! 👍