The Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank has published its assessment of Reform UK's tax and spending plans and it says they “don't add up”. And they are not just relatively unrealistic, it says. It says the costings are out “by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year
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Reform UK proposes tax cuts that it estimates would cost nearly £90bn per year, and spending increases of £50bn per year.
It claims that it would pay for these through £150bn per year of reductions in other spending, covering public services, debt interest and working-age benefits.
This would represent a big cut to the size of the state. Regardless of the pros and cons of shrinking the state, or of any of their specific measures, the package as a whole is problematic.
Spending reductions would save less than stated,
and the tax cuts would cost more than stated, by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year.
Meanwhile the spending increases would cost more than stated if they are to achieve their objectives …
Even with the extremely optimistic assumptions about how much economic growth would increase, the sums in this manifesto do not add up. Whilst Reform’s manifesto gives a clear sense of priority, a government could only implement parts of this package, or would need to find other ways to help pay for it, which would mean losers not specified.