Trump's to lose.
Depending on which polls one reads. I read NYT, CNN, WSJ and Economist -- balanced view, in my opinion.
There are a few states that swing the elections. That has happened before as well, GWBush won stole through Florida.
Trump attempted to upend Georgia. Trump won against Hillary (higher popular vote) but turning the swing states. Inserted candidates siphoning Democrat votes, much as RFKjr is attempting now.
Harris-Walz are appealing to many different groups of people (women, gays, pro-abortion, left of center socialists, footballer fans, "white guys" (that group is oddly amusing), younger than 40s, etc.
The X POTUS appears to appeal to isolationists, anti-socialists, self made upper middle income - people who think they are like him.