Have the Conservatives signed their own death warrant?

UKIP won 12.6% of the vote in the 2015 election though, so not much different to Reform last time.

Casdon

yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45744-which-media-outlets-do-britons-trust-2023
For you BevSec, and anybody else who is interested in the consensus on newspaper reliability.

Now that IS interesting!

I'd always ask, "whats the source, where's the fact check". If the DM or the Guardian just "says" - or does a readers poll, which will be biased -

...if a newspaper just "says" that this or that is the biggest issue, its not good enough, whichever the paper;

if the newspaper reports independently gathered data then thats another matter.

It's a different world/time to when UKIP were around though, it was reforms second place positions that I think were interesting. They were a relatively new party at the time of the election and will have opportunity to build on it. People didn't really see the threat of Brexit till it was here.
I think the most likely thing to happen is reform implode as historically that is what frequently happen to those new parties, but if they dont then I think they could cause a shock. Certainly in our labour branch they are seen as the 'threat' in local elections.

yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45744-which-media-outlets-do-britons-trust-2023
For you BevSec, and anybody else who is interested in the consensus on newspaper reliability.

Lizziedrip, thank you. It was not my link, but that doesnt matter. It was not in the Telegraph but in the Daily Mail. I know the comments I am going to get back from posters who do not take that newspaper seriously but bear in mind I feel the same way about the Guardian.

BevSec I can’t read your link because of the Telegraph’s paywall.

So, I’ve done my own research.

According to Statistica, an independent data gathering organisation, to use your own words ‘the single biggest issue now’ for the UK population is the economy.

I can post a link so you can confirm it yourself, if you wish.

David49

Here at the last GE Reform + LD overturned a 20k conservative majority, we now have a LD MP. In terms of votes around 12% of votes went to Reform that is significant, if the Tories want to form a majority again they have to win those back.

It’s quite possible for a Tory + Reform coalition at the next election, those that are bemoaning Starmer will get what they wish for, he need to stick to his plans to have any chance of reviving the economy.

In my (Kemi Badenoch's) constituency, a 27,594 Conservative majority was reduced to 2,610. This has been a Conservative seat for ever.

The Reform vote (7,935) was about the same as UKIP polled in 2015 (7,668). Having been a canvasser in elections, I know who they UKIP/Reform voters are and I can't see the figure increasing.

Before Badenoch, we had 'One Nation Conservative' MPs. Even now, people say that they might have disagreed with our last MP, but they respected him and he certainly worked for his constituents (even me - twice - and I've never voted Conservative in my life).

In a FPTP system, there are always going to be strange results caused by tactical voting, but I do not think that anywhere near half of the country (or those who can be bothered to vote) supports Reform (or a Reform-lite Conservative Party). 20% in every constituency in the country wouldn't give Reform any MPs. If Reform seemed like a serious threat, I wouldn't be surprised if people were motivated to vote against them.

A pound to a penny we can guess which bastion of editorial reliability you sourced that information from BevSec.
www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/07/britain-has-most-illegal-migrants-in-europe-study-finds/#:~:text=The%20up%20to%20745%2C000%20people,the%20Channel%20in%20small%20boats.

Weird? In what way?

Wyllow3, I know it because I have read it in a national newspaper (not the Guardian which I do not read as its so weird)

That doesn’t add up though David49, the Lib Dem’s had an only 2% difference in vote share to Reform. Labour and Lib Dem’s combined was 48%, Tory and Reform combined was 38%. If the Tories pursue a right agenda and join with Reform, they are attracting only the votes from the right, and will lose votes in the centre to the Lib Dems, not pick up more.

he needs to stick to his plans to have any chance of reviving the economy.
I think he will. He is at least seeming to be able to rise above the vitriol and attempts to bully him into changing his course. I hope he manages to do so.

Here at the last GE Reform + LD overturned a 20k conservative majority, we now have a LD MP. In terms of votes around 12% of votes went to Reform that is significant, if the Tories want to form a majority again they have to win those back.

It’s quite possible for a Tory + Reform coalition at the next election, those that are bemoaning Starmer will get what they wish for, he need to stick to his plans to have any chance of reviving the economy.

How can you possibly know that?

Wtllow3, the single biggest issue is now uncontrolled, illegal i migration apparently. That is what mum2three is referring to imo. Her post is not confusing, its very clear.

I'm genuinely confused as to what you are suggesting mum2three in saying If politicians want to take the helm they must put aside their own agenda and do what the decent, sensible people of this country want. ? Which helm? which agenda?

The attraction of Reform was a one issue agenda, really, with lamentable lack of detail on other policies.

A proper opposition has to deal with the whole raft of policies that govern our everyday lives, and I want to hear from conservative candidates about these, not just courting Reform votes.

They have done the obvious and asked themselves why so many of the electorate voted Reform. If politicians want to take the helm they must put aside their own agenda and do what the decent, sensible people of this country want.

nanna8 you could argue that the Conservative Party is becoming a spent force in the UK? I don’t agree that Farage is an unknown quantity. He feels pretty sure to me about key policies. What you see is what you get?

My post got lost in the ether before, either removed or unsuitable for sensitive types but to me it is obvious that the Conservatives follow the right wing line of Farage because that way they may attract some of his adherents back. People usually prefer tried and tested parties, not new ones. Farage is an unknown quantity, the Conservatives are not.

On our radio here they were saying the system for choosing leaders is much better in the UK than it is here ( where we take about 10 seconds to replace them.) I’m not sure, it seems to take an awful lot of dithering around.

vegansrock

The Tory centrist group TRG are refusing to back either candidate.

Good for them!

Thanks for bringing it to attention:

In several newspapers

www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/10/centrist-conservatives-refuse-back-badenoch-jenrick-tory-reform-group-leadership-candidates-party-right

some choice language further down the report.

"An education secretary in a job far out of her capabilities" Not that I agree, but the Conservatives put a Prime Minister in a job far out of her capabilities not so long ago.

westendgirl I believe that some Conservative M.P.s were using their vote tactically , voting to keep out a candidate rather than for a candidate, as they believed Cleverley was safely there. They got it very wrong

Well if they all just stopped all the stupid machinations then it wouldnt happen would it! Just vote for who you think would be best as leader ...but no, a load of stupid game playing! 🙄

orly

Trueloveways

As a Labour supporter the Conservatives at the moment are the gift that keeps on giving.

...and Labour are the gits which keep taking.

Ha ha very good. Have just been listening to the Black Belt Barrister, he speaks a very good tale of the ill thought out VAT on private schools, and the absolutely hillarious hypocrisy of Reeves and the ridiculous sayings from an education Secretary who has been put in a job far out of her capabilities.
"Cannot be trusted"? On you tube. A real eye opener.