President Assad

Yes there has been limited military involvement, by the West especially early on 2012-2015 against the excesses of the Russian backed Assam regime, including its chemical weapons.

FWIW, his article charts US
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_attacks_on_Syria_during_the_Syrian_civil_war

I'm not sure what overall point you are trying to make, Ronib.

The aid budgets throughout the period as outlined above as mentioned several times are channeled through international aid agencies and are not for arms.

Wyllow3 my point is that I don’t have a position/point. This whole situation seems to be very difficult to unravel. There are so many conflicting interests involved but I guess we’ll see who comes out top soon enough!!
The US seems to have been very involved militarily from 2013?? I am sure greater minds than mine will explain. Back to my hoovering….

As someone with a poor knowledge of geography I find looking at maps is a good start to understanding the geopolitics of an area. I think geopolitics is what Ronib is referring to as stirring the pot with paddles? Thinking of Syria, it's not just the adjacent countries that matter (Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Israel), it's their alliances and type of government etc, it's coastline and who has ports there (eg Russia) which give access to other places of access? (Russia and Wagner group in Africa). Where are the oil fields, what other countries have bases there and why? It really helps to give me a sense of why we get involved in the politics of other countries, why organisations like NATO and the UN (despite the faults!) are important to our security. I'm grateful for links that people have found that help to explain the complexity of this region, keep posting them please.
No one know who will prevail in Syria, at least we are sending humanitarian aid and speaking to HTS via diplomatic routes (which is apparently legal). I think what is worrying me most is seeing how wars in one part of the world have a knock on effort somewhere else, the world feels very unstable ATM.

We shall see Jeanathome

Wyllow3

M61: you are completely wrong:

Refugees are coming back, often families, from Turkey, already. And so many more want to come back, but there are things to be sorted first

Here is a video of them from today, and they talk of living under Assad, and their hopes in coming home

www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=refugees+in+turkey+retrun+to+syria&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:ad5dde1c,vid:pDEoKRVVn5A,st:0

However, this helpful BBC article says the difficulties they face and why some won't be coming back until matters are more resolved

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg6eeg87lqo

""There is still no water in many regions in Syria, electricity comes at certain times of the day. It is not even clear who will govern the country and how, but we need to return to get Syria back on its feet," says Ibrahim, a chemical engineer"

OTOH

"that there are big questions over infrastructure – a lack of schools, jobs and hospitals.
The United Nations estimates that 90% of the population inside Syria is now living below the poverty line.
"It may take hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild these devastated cities. Which country will provide the resources?" Mr Erdogan says. "The deep poverty and the collapse of infrastructure in Syria are likely to continue for a long time. These are not problems that will be easily fixed in the short term."
Metin Corabatir warns also of the risk of unexploded bombs and mines when refugees head home: "They also need to find out in advance what condition their homes are in the destroyed cities."

Can't you understand a genuine longing to "go home"?

Yes I certainly can but you are saying there is no infrastructure, no schools, etc
A-bit like here really! So that’s why I don’t think they will be rushing off back to Syria- I certainly hope their country is sorted out & rebuilt then they can get back to some normalcy

There is an infrastructure just very patchy and regional. BBC update recorded some children going back to school and some Christians going to services.

foxie, you said it all really what I was thinking of saying. People commenting on here,
some want to look into it more than others, nobody is an "Expert"
some want to look up and post references, others to choose a particular angle of interest.

You say foxie, " I think what is worrying me most is seeing how wars in one part of the world have a knock on effort somewhere else, the world feels very unstable ATM"

Yes

The USA has just under 1000 troops (did check it out) in the Kurdish areas, no one knows if they will stay or go, the Russians still have two bases on the coast to the East, the HTS have control of the oil areas (not currently producing a lot),

Israel is still advancing/consolidating (today BBC report)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgm9w2ym39go

Yes, Syria is in the middle of a some very troubled areas and thats why so much effort is going into it.

https://www.gransnet.com/uploads/talk/202412/medium-427218-fw2ruksoqai6vp2e6ucd5m4rri.jpg https://www.gransnet.com/uploads/talk/202412/medium-447596-file-20241204-15-p7a090.jpg

Yes I certainly can but you are saying there is no infrastructure, no schools, etc
A-bit like here really!
Where do you live? 😯

Somewhere like this? One province after Russian airstrike.

Yes I certainly can but you are saying there is no infrastructure, no schools, etc
A-bit like here really!

Then there was the earthquake last year

Thank you Allira - there are pictures showing unaffected areas too, but the statistics are compelling

This article gives the facts and figures

www.context.news/socioeconomic-inclusion/syria-the-war-in-numbers

hate to use these words "its a must read" but its very clear, and clear why we are giving substantial aid.

On an optimistic note, there are videos showing girls and boys going back to school online.

I'm wondering if Assad will be used by Putin to bargain with the next regime eg we'll let you have Assad if you let us keep our ports. Just a thought!

hopefully they'll tell Putin, we'll let you have the joy of him mate.

valdavi

hopefully they'll tell Putin, we'll let you have the joy of him mate.

Yes, my preferred option, lose the bases, keep the monster - for now.

foxie48

I'm wondering if Assad will be used by Putin to bargain with the next regime eg we'll let you have Assad if you let us keep our ports. Just a thought!

To be fair to the Russians, they do not usually betray leaders like this.

However, what has happened in the past is that some leaders have taken temporary refuge in Moscow until moving on to another more comfortable country.

In this case I think Assad and family will move on to one of the 'friendly' Gulf arab states like Saudi Arabia or Qa'atar.

I doubt either Saudi Arabia or Qatar will have him, they were helping to arm the "Rebels".

There are other Gulf and arab states. I am someone somewhere will be all to willing to help - for a price - and Assad and his family have £billions salted away in various tax havens.

Wouldn't he be in danger in any of those states on a hit list?

No, he could pay for security and the gulf states have a history of providing unpleasant people, especially Arab or African dictators with a safe haven - no doubt at a price. Here is a list of those finding sanctuary in Saudi Arabia
www.middleeasteye.net/news/sri-lanka-rajapaksa-saudi-arabia-safe-haven-ousted-leaders

*MOnica" Saudi's are generally Sunni, Assad is an Alawite following the Shiite interpretation of Islam. I think it's highly unlikely that he would be welcome in Saudi Arabia regardless of how much money he has. The question is also, where has he put his money and how easily can he access it? It's thought a lot of his money is in Russia which if Putin decides to off load him, is a bit of a problem.

Some list!

Long but informative article for those interested enough on relationships with Turkey and HTS plans with other rebel groups and the future of the Kurds.

www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/17/ankara-is-getting-what-it-wants-how-erdogans-balancing-act-in-syria-paid-off

I am not suggesting that Assad will end up in Saudi Arabia specifically, but I was only able to find a link listing those dictators who had sought refuge in that country. Other dictators have ended up in other countries around the Persian Gulf, but i could not find.

Here is another interesting article that seems to be old enough to be unaffected by the Washington Post's pay wall. www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/01/30/where-do-ousted-dictators-go-fewer-countries-now-offer-a-warm-welcome/

It actually suggested that Syria's war lasted longer because Assad knew he faced International War crime trials, if he went and his country of exile needs to be one that ignores such warrants.

It is an interesting thought. Assad - and his family may, in fact, have to stay in Russia whether he or Putin want him or not, simply because no other country willing to take him is safe for him to go to.

A BBC interview with HTS leader.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c05p9g2nqmeo

A very positive sign, good intentions for sure it’s now up to the west and the US in particular to make sure those good intentions are put into practice.
Don’t expect that to be an easy process!.

Thats more or less how I felt too about it David. So many obstacles to steer through. He's asked for a lift on sanctions.

A word of caution. The Taliban made all sorts of promises before the American withdrawal about how women would be treated under their (second) period in power.

Look what they have actually done. No education for women, now not even allowed to speak in when out in public to train to be mid-wives.

look how the Chinese have broken every clause in the agreement over the return of Hong Kong to Chinese rule.

We must be aware in dealing with the new powers in Syria, not to be deceived into supporting a regime that starts by being open and liberal to attract western support but then changes to be as repressive as Assads, but for different reasons.

Yes MOnica, beware yet open to working constructively. Another tough call for the government and diplomats