Trade wars - how will it effect the UK?

ronib

The UK is in a weak financial position overall and is not in any position to argue with Trump about tariffs. I imagine that we will meekly accept whatever terms Trump offers us . Not sure how Milliband will cope as the deal is bound to include buying American oil and gas. We have been well outplayed?

I’m not sure you understand how small the UK is in the greater scheme of things ronib. We are 12th on the list of countries who import to the USA, those that Trump wants to target, and we have a trade deficit with the USA. We are bit players.

But the £22 billion black hole definitely ties our hands in the UK? There’s no money so we have to fall in line as we can’t afford not to. Surely?

That’s irrelevant.

ronib

But the £22 billion black hole definitely ties our hands in the UK? There’s no money so we have to fall in line as we can’t afford not to. Surely?

That is complete bollocks nonsense, ronib. The only place that a 'black hole' exists is in Rachel Reeves' brain.

Casdon is absolutely correct. It's irrelevant.

Casdon my hunch is that a deal will be announced between Uk and USA and we will have no choice in the matter. We are so broke it’s not funny.

ronib

Casdon my hunch is that a deal will be announced between Uk and USA and we will have no choice in the matter. We are so broke it’s not funny.

That sounds like appeasement

Rachel Reeves has a brain? MaizieD. We don’t hold a very good hand do we in negotiations with a bully?

We have something to offer which Trump desperately wants - all the pomp and pageantry of a State visit, with him centre stage. I would bet on him not prejudicing that. We are, as has been said, just a bit player in the great scheme of things but we have something unique which his ego can’t resist.

I think we’ll have to wait and see.

MaizieD

ronib

But the £22 billion black hole definitely ties our hands in the UK? There’s no money so we have to fall in line as we can’t afford not to. Surely?

That is complete bollocks nonsense, ronib. The only place that a 'black hole' exists is in Rachel Reeves' brain.

Casdon is absolutely correct. It's irrelevant.

The only place that a 'black hole' exists is in Rachel Reeves' brain.
🤣🤣

"Black holes" are not an exact-science - they are largely based on theory and future projections, and the sum can therefore be 'moved' accordingly, but I think it suits Reeves if the electorate believe there's a ruddy great jar on the shelf with a 'missing' £22 billion, which we've got to replace, or else!

... It's just a crude political device which allows governments leeway to abandon election promises.

ronib

Rachel Reeves has a brain? MaizieD. We don’t hold a very good hand do we in negotiations with a bully?

She has a bi black hole in her brain where her economic knowledge should be.

Take it from me and a great many economists, the UK is not broke. It's being held hostage to a pointless and damaging obsession with a fiscal 'golden rule'.

It is, though, going to be destroyed by Reeves' determination not to invest in improving the public sector until her magical 'growth' occurs. An event about as likely as me riding in an international Three Day Event...(I'm sorry to say)

Black holes aren't science at all. Any more than economics is 'science'. A great deal of economics is pure magical thinking...

MaizieD yes I know that too. But when dealing with Trump just what hand do we play?
Also just be thankful you can ride a horse …. Some of us haven’t the opportunity!

I have never believed that the UK is broke or that there is a £22m black hole, save in Reeves’s imagination. She’s brainwashed people, and sadly it seems to have worked in some cases.

Barleyfields so sadly my mp wrote extensively about the 22 billion black hole in his feeble explanation of why our local hospital is not being rebuilt until 2032. You can’t mean it’s not true?

We don't have a 'hand'. We chucked away what we did have. But we can cultivate supportive allies, make alternative deals if need be. Sit tight and bear it. Grow vegetables and make our own clothes, accept rationing with good grace... 😁🤣

You may be right Maizie but he wants a legacy.
He also wants to show his POWER round the world - like all dictators!
🙄

He lied, ronib. Labour have turned out to be very good at that.

Trump is preparing a trap for Starmer. If the PM shows favour towards the EU in any retaliatory measures Brussels makes then we will suffer. If he doesn’t the UK will be protected and maybe Starmer will have to reel in his joiner tendencies. Quite a challenge for one of the most politically inept PM’s we’ve ever had. I also think Trump will lean on Starmer regarding the Chagos islands.

Although there may well be increases in Tariffs there will also be reciprocal Tariffs, that will offset any changes to a degree
My guess is we won’t notice much change.

FriedGreenTomatoes2

Trump is preparing a trap for Starmer. If the PM shows favour towards the EU in any retaliatory measures Brussels makes then we will suffer. If he doesn’t the UK will be protected and maybe Starmer will have to reel in his joiner tendencies. Quite a challenge for one of the most politically inept PM’s we’ve ever had. I also think Trump will lean on Starmer regarding the Chagos islands.

We wouldn’t suffer as much in that scenario as we would if we rebuild our ties with Europe, given we have far more interdependencies with the EU than with the USA.

David49

Although there may well be increases in Tariffs there will also be reciprocal Tariffs, that will offset any changes to a degree
My guess is we won’t notice much change.

Actually, David, that is more or less my guess, too.

It could be more noticeable if this 'war' drags on, but with the US dependency on imports and Musk taking physical control of the federal finances there could be a lot of internal US chaos on the not so distant horizon.

FriedGreenTomatoes2

Trump is preparing a trap for Starmer. If the PM shows favour towards the EU in any retaliatory measures Brussels makes then we will suffer. If he doesn’t the UK will be protected and maybe Starmer will have to reel in his joiner tendencies. Quite a challenge for one of the most politically inept PM’s we’ve ever had. I also think Trump will lean on Starmer regarding the Chagos islands.

Isn't he just? Starmer will have to tread very carefully on this one. Quite apart from the democratic Leave vote, he will be Public Enemy No 1 if businesses are hit with tariffs following Reeves's disastrous budget.

PoliticsNerd

Tizliz

It will kill our business as 70% of our sales are to USA, very worrying

Would it help your business if the trade barriers currently acting on sales to the EU were improved Tizliz.

I'm so sorry you're having to contemplate this.

Strangely we don’t have a European market. Though our products are expensive people save for them so a tariff could be the breaking point.

Casdon

FriedGreenTomatoes2

Trump is preparing a trap for Starmer. If the PM shows favour towards the EU in any retaliatory measures Brussels makes then we will suffer. If he doesn’t the UK will be protected and maybe Starmer will have to reel in his joiner tendencies. Quite a challenge for one of the most politically inept PM’s we’ve ever had. I also think Trump will lean on Starmer regarding the Chagos islands.

We wouldn’t suffer as much in that scenario as we would if we rebuild our ties with Europe, given we have far more interdependencies with the EU than with the USA.

every country that has a trade deficit with the USA will suffer.. because Trump CAN make us.. he is not interested in retaliations..

Changing our tariffs will not make the slightest difference

I agree with whichever poster said we should aim to become more self sufficient and get closer ties to Europe