Trade wars - how will it effect the UK?

MaizieD

Completely off topic, but I do wish the mods would correct the title of this thread. It makes ne wince every time I read it.

If OP were to come back I'd ask her to get the mods to change it...🙏

What do you want it changed to?

ayse

MaizieD

Completely off topic, but I do wish the mods would correct the title of this thread. It makes ne wince every time I read it.

If OP were to come back I'd ask her to get the mods to change it...🙏

What do you want it changed to?

I think you’d like to change it to “how will they affect us”. I would if this topic hadn’t run out. That’s what come of posting when you are tired.

Wyllow3

rula if you read the Trump thread you will read that the so called "concessions" made by Mexico and Canada were already in the pipeline (Publicly so, as in military on borders). Trump didnt have to threaten.

He settled quickly as the financial markets were threatened with freefall.

He's a mouthy bully.

Ironically, Trudeau is now more popular than he has been for some time.

The spectacle of the big match and usually respectful Canadians Booing the US national anthem will not go away.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZTvivK-dbs

Wyllow3
Unfortunately 65% of the population have turned against his liberal views on immigration.
I listened to a piece on Radio 4 a while back. There have been big demonstrations against his policies.
unherd.com/newsroom/canadians-turn-on-trudeau-over-immigration/

Perhaps it's not an "either/or. Ie have a strong opinion on immigration but support his opinions on tariffs?

As yet Trump hasn't put tarrifs on the UK. If he does buy stuff elsewhere. It may be cheaper. He has taken them off Canada and Mexico. He uses them to bully people into submission. He doesn't like it if countries don't do what he says. I've noticed he's not looking well at the moment, he may kick the bucket any time.

I wonder how Canadians will react to US citizens fleeing to Canada to escape Trump’s madness? I predict it could well happen

I also suspect that Canadians (who, extraordinarily enough, are immigrants or descended from immigrants) may be more worried at the moment by Trump than by immigrants.

Farage says we should not have to adhere to EU Law and Standards to export to EU. Why? Of course if you want to export you should have to follow their rules and standards.

I mean, we could choose to sell carpets to EU by the square foot, and in widths in feet and inches- but they would not buy them. Same for any goods, incl meat, fish, fruit, veg, cars, whatever. If they buy import goods, they can insist on certain standards.

Does anyone believe that we won't have to adhere to US standards as they require, to export there? On the other hand, you can bet your botoom Dollar that Trump will insist we buy any c* from them, including hormone feed meat, etc, etc, etc.

MaizieD

I wonder how Canadians will react to US citizens fleeing to Canada to escape Trump’s madness? I predict it could well happen

I also suspect that Canadians (who, extraordinarily enough, are immigrants or descended from immigrants) may be more worried at the moment by Trump than by immigrants.

That is clear- we have many friends and family who are considering a move to Canada or Europe, looking at all possibilities.

MaizieD

I wonder how Canadians will react to US citizens fleeing to Canada to escape Trump’s madness? I predict it could well happen

I also suspect that Canadians (who, extraordinarily enough, are immigrants or descended from immigrants) may be more worried at the moment by Trump than by immigrants.

I heard on the grapevine that the Canadians are building a wall to keep illegal immigrants from the USA getting into Canada.

Claremont

MaizieD

I wonder how Canadians will react to US citizens fleeing to Canada to escape Trump’s madness? I predict it could well happen

I also suspect that Canadians (who, extraordinarily enough, are immigrants or descended from immigrants) may be more worried at the moment by Trump than by immigrants.

That is clear- we have many friends and family who are considering a move to Canada or Europe, looking at all possibilities.

There won’t be any work available in Canada though, because if the tariffs do bite it’s going to seriously affect their economy, as it will everywhere else if Trump goes ahead.

Casdon

I’m not sure that’s true, I think people do listen to Maizie’s view, but those who don’t subscribe to that are not necessarily people who ‘won’t change the minds that have been made up for them anytime soon’. That’s patronising people who think differently but whose views are equally valid, as well as those who are sceptics, and those who go along with whatever their own party’s line is. This applies in the wider world as well as on Gransnet.

The flaw with “Maisies” view of economics is the government can print/create money, but those awful finance markets don’t like it.
Around 30% of current borrowings are QE, that’s probably getting close to the limit before confidence becomes shaky. The government realizes that and does not want to increase borrowing/QE .
Comment was made about WW2 recovery that was accompanied by high taxation and a much lower level of state support.

Would trade standards might be the issue? I'd assumed paying to keep NATO afloat without so much USA money? Isn't NATO in US interests security wise?

The flaw with “Maisies” view of economics is the government can print/create money, but those awful finance markets don’t like it.

The finance markets don't have to like it. They can speculate with other currencies.

It is public knowledge that the government has 'printed' some £900billion of our money to cover 'emergencies' since the beginning of this century. The finance markets weren't bothered.

It has steadily 'printed' money to expand the money supply in this country for the last 100 years at least.

Reflect on this, David and tell me where the money for the increase in earnings has come from.

Consider also that the population of the UK in 1950 was about 45million and is now 66 million +

Start

Average weekly earnings of industrial wage earners shown by Ministry of Labour inquiries were £4 16s. ld. in July, 1945, £6 16s. 2d. in April, 1951, and £9 2s. 3d. in April, 1955, a rise of 42 per cent. between 1945 and 1951, and 34 per cent. between 1951 and 1955.

hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/1956-02-23/debates/8806eeb3-a61f-4178-8115-8648bbd89f38/AverageIndustrialWage(PurchasingPower)

Wages in Manufacturing in the United Kingdom increased to 772 GBP/Week in November from 771 GBP/Week in October of 2024.
tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/wages-in-manufacturing

End

Thank you for this post MaizieD- very interesting and food for thought.

I propose the increase in earnings has come from inflation and the need to buy the essentials of life, money supply has had to increase to achieve that.

The government created money to fund WW1, WW2 and it was gradually replaced by borrowings, in recent times in 2002 borrowing was 29% of GDP, since then creation of money has increased to over 30% and total debt nearly 100% of GDP the economics have failed because the government is spending more than we earn.

We paid back the £900 billion you say we created, it does not look like we are going to be paying back current debt anytime soon. Historically we did not have the intense financial trading we have today, even so investors separate borrowing/creation for growth from that to fund social spending

MaizieD

I wonder how Canadians will react to US citizens fleeing to Canada to escape Trump’s madness? I predict it could well happen

I also suspect that Canadians (who, extraordinarily enough, are immigrants or descended from immigrants) may be more worried at the moment by Trump than by immigrants.

Listening to the piece on Radio 4 it is a high percentage of migrants that are in uproar.

If anyone is seriously interested in how the whole money system works watch The Spiders Web ( Britains second empire) on Netflix.

I don’t think Trump had any intention of raising tariffs.
He had to convince the voters that he was going to make America great again raising tariffs. Knowing full well he had no intention of following through.
But maybe not with the eu. That’s personal with him. He had a real problem with Angela Merkel.

Did he convince anybody else though petra? He looks like a failed bully from the outsider’s perspective, and it’s an early warning system for countries to look to other markets in future rather than the US. Own goal, I would suggest.

It looks like we here in the UK will be the lucky ones where tariffs are concerned from what DT said the other day, but the EU not so lucky.Or will it all be a bluff?

Inpropose the increase in earnings has come from inflation and the need to buy the essentials of life, money supply has had to increase to achieve that.

Fine.

Now, where did the extra money come from, David?

Since many products passing between the USA and EU are similar (like cars, car parts, pharmaceuticals) what would be the point in a tariff war? Where is Trumps leverage, except in money for NATO.

Chump doesn't much care that his previous imposition of tariffs in term #1 raised costs for his own people by several hundred dollars a year, or even a few thousand, depending on their buying habits. Not that he WOULD care, his natural arrogance means he is disconnected from real people, except when getting MAGA hats made in China for his imbecilic fans to wear.

Maybe his voters never heard that his previous attempts to attack China meant they stopped buying Soy Beans, and the US Govt had to pay massive compensation to the affected farmers, genius use of the taxpayer dollar (not that Chump is affected -- records show he doesn't pay any).

His whole spiel about "Make America Great Again" is just that, a sales pitch, from an expert conman and hypocrite.

Anyone in doubt should check out that hilarious video, from about 2015 (? -- UTube now), Chump on the Letterman show, talking about his "Luuuuurrrrrvvve" for American workers, then DL got out some ties and shirts from under the desk, part of Chump's exec clothing range, and when the orange sex pest said he "couldn't remember" where they were made, DL said "let's look at the labels", "Oh, Bangladesh", then "this one's Taiwan - lovely ties . . ." etc etc. Collapse of bumptious braggart balloon as it meets expert comedy pin, on TV.

Oh, and his attacks on all those terrible immigrants? His winery business was caught applying for MORE Mexicans to work there . . .

Did someone say he's not looking well? Indeed, must take ages for someone to paint him that strange colour every morning. Somehow I doubt it's Melania . . .

petra

If anyone is seriously interested in how the whole money system works watch The Spiders Web ( Britains second empire) on Netflix.

Thanks for the heads up - I will look at that!

The extra money in circulation has come from economic activity, increased GDP if you like plus borrowing/creation
In 2002 borrowing was 29%, public spending was just over 30% of GDP.
Today borrowing is nearly 100% of GDP, public spending is now nearly 45% of GDP, that increase has been funded by borrowing/creation. Proposing more printing money risks the situation Japan has suffered their borrowing is 260% of GDP and the currency collapsed.

I agree with Labour policy to increase GDP, there is plenty of wealth in the UK, taxation could increase to fund that, my doubts are that they will have the courage to do that.