Israel attack on Iran

Whitewavemark2

Iran is undoubtedly an illegitimate authoritarian regime and there is always the possibility that the regime will fall - but only almost certainly to the military, and then what?

Yes a military takeover, likely to be much easier to deal with than the fundamentalist regime we have now. Most other nations on the region are military dictatorships. We have seen with Egypt that it’s impossible to control extremists with a civilian government

AGAA4

Oreo

Anyone got any confidence in Trump’s deals? Iran’s leaders would run rings round him and his entourage just as Putin does.
It was the right time to strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities.

No confidence at all in Trump's deals. He has proved himself ineffective before.
Not sure about the timing of the attack on Iran.

I think that, in his past, business, life, Trump's 'deals' have always succeeded because he had money and the threat of ruinous litigation behind him.

In government, he has nothing as powerful. So he can't produce the simplistic solutions to international problems that his simplistic voters believed that he could.

From BBC news.

'Tehran will burn' if missiles do not stop - Israeli defence minister
published at 11:36
11:36
Israel's defence minister, Israel Katz, has said "Tehran will burn" if Iran continues to launch missiles.

In comments made during an assessment with military officials, Katz says: "The Iranian dictator is turning the citizens of Iran into hostages and creating a reality in which they, especially the residents of Tehran, will pay a heavy price for the criminal attack on Israeli civilians."

I think I have entered the world of 1984.

Mamie

I would thoroughly recommend the latest episode of The Rest is Politics on the Iran Israel events.

Thanks for this mamie I didn’t realise that they had done an emergency podcast. They confirmed most snd more of what I’d read and listened to.

Iran have warned the US UK and France that if they give aid to Israel they will attack their bases and ships.

The UK is staying out of this and France too I think. Not sure if the US are helping to shoot down missiles from Iran.

Just jumping in to thanks CariadAgain and Whitewavemark for their fact finding suggestions. Heading over to see if the library has 'The Lemon Tree', and will also try to catch the Rest is Politics.

Anniebach

ronib I do like facts, thank you

Seems to me you like some facts, those you want to hear- and totally blank the rest.

How rude.

AGAA4

Iran have warned the US UK and France that if they give aid to Israel they will attack their bases and ships.

The UK is staying out of this and France too I think. Not sure if the US are helping to shoot down missiles from Iran.

Iran is over playing their military power, they may have an estimated 2000 missiles that can reach Israel, if they are sending 200 at a time, most of which get shot down they won’t last long. In the meantime Israel seems to be attacking at will because Iranian defenses are so poor, if they do attack the US the retaliation will be massive.

Iran claims to only have a peaceful nuclear programme, so why are they hiding it deep inside a mountain, why are they denying inspectors access. Israel should get on with it and stop Irans nuclear threat with US help if needed.

UK is sending RAF planes to the middle east. Starmer hasn't said what they're doing there but I would think they will be in support of Israel.

G7 summit in Canada happening soon. Bound to be on the agenda.
One of the online papers gave a summary of what might happen next.
One of the 'versions' was that the new replacement leaders in Iran might be even more hardline than those killed by Israel.
Another suggested that Israel's attack, just when 'nuclear deal' was about to be achieved, could convince Iran they now must have nuclear weapons to survive.

TRIP podcast discusses that possible outcome too Maremia. It is a sobering thought.

Exactly- poking a dangerous bear rarely works. From Iran's pov it makes total sense.

Hiding the bomb deep inside a mountain means it will be hard to destroy. Israel have killed some of the scientists working on the bomb which will delay it being ready.
Iran with a nuclear weapon is very worrying.

David49

AGAA4

Iran have warned the US UK and France that if they give aid to Israel they will attack their bases and ships.

The UK is staying out of this and France too I think. Not sure if the US are helping to shoot down missiles from Iran.

Iran is over playing their military power, they may have an estimated 2000 missiles that can reach Israel, if they are sending 200 at a time, most of which get shot down they won’t last long. In the meantime Israel seems to be attacking at will because Iranian defenses are so poor, if they do attack the US the retaliation will be massive.

Iran claims to only have a peaceful nuclear programme, so why are they hiding it deep inside a mountain, why are they denying inspectors access. Israel should get on with it and stop Irans nuclear threat with US help if needed.

I have been reading that because of their weakened military power, this attack by Israel and the failure of an agreement with the USA on nuclear, that it is almost certain that Iran will double its efforts to become a nuclear power.

Apparently the main bombing production is at the moment too deep for Israel to attack it - they would need assistance from the USA

Oh bum! I should have read the subsequent posts

Sorry to repeat😊

America has a decision to make. Will it supply the weapons to destroy the bomb or not? The prospect of making a deal is long gone so what will Trump do now?

Nuclear proliferation was always the massive risk- it was always clear that some nations would never accept that the 'West' was somehow allowed to have them, and other not. And that MAD (Mutual assured destruction) would only work for some time.
The development since of smaller, tactical and very targetted smaller nuclear weapons, that some believe could deliver a 'small and limited' nuclear attack have made that obsolete, and so has proliferation to the Middle-East, Russia, China and beyond. And to some States that were previously so called trusted Allies, and now have turned rogue states partly due to their new leaders, like Trump, Putin, KimJung and Netanyahu, and others. Proliferation was always going to happen, and was always going to be beyond massively dangerous. And the UK agreeing to have nuclear weapons on our soil for the USA puts all at increased risk.

Some of us tried in the 70s and 80s to explain- but it all fell on deaf ears.

The UK is sending jets to support our bases in the area not to aid the attack by Israel.
Rachel Reeves has said we have defended Israel in the past but would not be involved in an attack.
That would put us on a war footing with Iran if UK are involved.

Claremont

Nuclear proliferation was always the massive risk- it was always clear that some nations would never accept that the 'West' was somehow allowed to have them, and other not. And that MAD (Mutual assured destruction) would only work for some time.
The development since of smaller, tactical and very targetted smaller nuclear weapons, that some believe could deliver a 'small and limited' nuclear attack have made that obsolete, and so has proliferation to the Middle-East, Russia, China and beyond. And to some States that were previously so called trusted Allies, and now have turned rogue states partly due to their new leaders, like Trump, Putin, KimJung and Netanyahu, and others. Proliferation was always going to happen, and was always going to be beyond massively dangerous. And the UK agreeing to have nuclear weapons on our soil for the USA puts all at increased risk.

Some of us tried in the 70s and 80s to explain- but it all fell on deaf ears.

US nuclear arms in UK makes no difference, we ARE a nuclear power
We have 4 nuclear submarines each with 16? Missiles, each of those have multiple warheads. The deterrent value has served us well for 75 yrs, our entire lifetimes and I’m pretty confident that will continue.

We have 4 nuclear submarines each with 16? Missiles, each of those have multiple warheads.

The capability is that but they do not necessarily carry the full number at all times.

Parsley3

America has a decision to make. Will it supply the weapons to destroy the bomb or not? The prospect of making a deal is long gone so what will Trump do now?

This.

Okay Donald - what is with the easily? Please spell it out. We must be missing a trick or two?

Too late for deals but this war needs to be kept between Israel and Iran. If US, UK or other European bases are targeted then that draws NATO into the war.
The US insists that there was no imminent danger from Iran.

An easy deal? Well go ahead and make one, Mr President. The world awaits.