Ask yourself why no-one told you that.

Ladbrokes', that's a big deal isn't it?
But not on MSM.
Why could that be? Is there some sort of bias?
Are we being fed a load of nonsense by our media?

The bookies often seem to get it right! Mind you, it's still a while until the next General Election is due, but it's cheering if they don't think Reform is doing as well as we are led to believe.

Because to say Labour is in the lead is not a story. All the media wants is to attract readers. To me, it feels like the media run this country. Politicians are too ready to jump when the media continually runs a story, stirring up discontent and mayhem. How many of us are influenced by sensational headlines rather than in depth analysis?

The media often is like a dog with a bone, ready to expose anything about anyone regardless of how relevant to performance of the person until they succeed in bringing them down. Sometimes it is justified but often not.

I think Starmer’s approach to national defence, his speech in Munich, and alliances forged with the EU and other European countries, whilst remaining on civil terms with the US, could be his saving grace.

I sincerely hope that is right Doodledog. If Reform gets in we are doomed for sure.

In answer to the OP because the Labour comms team is dreadful and getting their messages out

I agree with everyone so far 😀

It's very interesting, as the odds are based on opinion polls, which must show that Labour is currently at the top despite the relentlessly negative reporting of everything they do. All of this could be different tomorrow, of course, but I wonder if any of it will be reported.

The LBC video of James O’Brien speaking about this.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MFQfDjmtKc

The betting is close but does show Labour is slightly more favoured.

75% of the media is owned by right-wing, tax-exile billionaires, which is why it has just spent a couple of weeks trying desperately to bring Starmer down over Mandelson when a year ago they were almost all saying what a marvellous appointment it was (apart from the FT). Any reservations about Mandelson were about China and Europe not about his relationship with Epstein.

It rarely reports on anything positive achieved by this government and there is progress to applaud.

Reform have lost 3 points this week - the biggest drop in a years. 76% of people don’t want them.

Three-quarters of the media promoting a party that three quarters of the people don’t want.

You are spot on GG13. Hope with the recent 'clear out' they find someone both decent and media savvy.

Labour certainly don't promote themselves well so the positive things they have achieved are not known by all.

Just saw someone on instagram asking Reform supporters if they knew Reform policies and they were shocked when told what their policies actually were.

But who takes part in these opinion polls? I've never been asked ,has anyone on here ?

I don't think it is an opinion poll, is it? Isn't it Ladbroke interpretation?

There was an interesting article in the new Statesman by Andrew MRr, I think it was him, suggesting that it was really only journalists and commentators like himself that were thinking Labour was on course to lose.

Flippin2

But who takes part in these opinion polls? I've never been asked ,has anyone on here ?

Yes. Less so now, as I expect they mostly happen online, but I used to often be stopped in the city centre and asked if I would answer some questions in return for a small present, such as a duster or biro . I suppose they couldn't be accused of bribery.

I also know people who sign up to fill in surveys. You get paid in Amazon vouchers and similar (I think some pay cash but you have to accrue points to claim it). They ask all sorts of demograhic questions when you sign up, so they can be sure to get a representative sample for each survey, although I imagine it must be difficult for them to find people who are comfortably off and willing to sit for ages ticking online boxes for a couple of pounds. The ones I've known have been young mums and students, who have spare time and little money.

The next GE is some way off yet- but on current form, despite all the set backs in current challenging times- Conservatives have been haemorrhaging to Reform, Reform are going down in the polls so Ladbroke's favourite for the L party to win the most seats in the next GE seems about par for the course....

GrannyGravy13

In answer to the OP ^because the Labour comms team is dreadful and getting their messages out^

Oh how I agree!

Flippin2

But who takes part in these opinion polls? I've never been asked ,has anyone on here ?

Yes, I am part of the YouGov panel and get reuests to complete uestionnaires about once a month.

The only reason people are saying thet Labour will win the next election is because all the other parties are in dissarray. This does not mean that those polled want a Labour government, merely that they can so no other option.

What I forecast is that if British politics stays in the negativw quagmire it is in at the moment we will have the lowest voter turnout ever recorded. It may well fall below 50%.

What vaildity does a party have as a government when only half the electorate did not vote and effiectively less than quarter of the electorate voted for them.

The only reason? How do you know that? Have you seen a survey the rest of us haven't?

Between 2019 and 2024, only 600,000 more people registered to vote, with the total electorate increasing to 48.2 from 47.6 million.
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10009/CBP-10009.pdf

Turnout in 2024 was 59.7%, down from 67.3% in 2019 but the latter was an exception year with Johnson trying to get a mandate for Brexit.

ONS say the population increased by 2.6 million in that time with about 4 million live births over 5 years and 3.5 million deaths. The rest is presumably migration, people who are not UK citizens and therefore ineligible to vote.

That 600,000 does look as though a good proportion of newly eligible adults is at least registering to vote even if they don’t bother to exercise that right.

The fact is that the five main parties in England did all field a similar number of candidates in 2024 and Labour did win almost 3 million more votes than its nearest rivals.

Reform effectively put Labour in power by splitting the right wing vote. The Tories and Reform together polled more than Labour.

FPTP is the main problem here. The Tories only have themselves to blame for the result in 2024 and have always opposed PR anyway.

I disagree that turnout will fall. What we are seeing is the traditional Tory voters literally dying out - or should I say Tory/Reform voters since 2024.

You may need to zoom in to see the detail on the graphic.

Many young people are being galvanised to oppose the rise of Reform and support the Greens instead. 16 and 17 year olds joining the electorate is likely to increase that support. We are just seeing a change of the old guard.

GrannyGravy13

In answer to the OP ^because the Labour comms team is dreadful and getting their messages out^

Is there in fact anyone in charge of their communications?
You'd think the recent ones were plotting against Labour, a fifth column.

The next election may well be in 2029 and I wonder how many people are thinking that far ahead.
Much can happen in the next three+ years.

Oh yes, I don’t think it is a prediction of anything much, but I did find it interesting that there was little or no reporting of the matter, when we are constantly told how well Reform is doing.

By definition, we don’t know what doesn’t make it into news reports, so what else are we unaware of, and how much are we influenced by the stories that do get published?

I do hear of people not bothering to vote because they think they know how others will vote (‘It’s not worth it - Xparty could put a donkey up in this area and it will get in’) so is constantly hearing about how Reform is going to sweep the boards likely to increase their chances of forming a government? Or might it cause disgruntlement in the Labour rank and file, and lead to rebellions from within?

I am not sure it is particularly Reforms performance that is causing unease in the Labour camp though.
Also once a government gets to this type of situation it is quite hard to row it back in terms of media portrayal and public perception.
I knew Johnson was finished when Ant and Dec took the p... out of him.

Graphite Voting patterns are far more complex than you suggest. Younger age groups are far less likely to vote than older age groups and proprtion of population voting is fslling and young people ae more likelyto vote for smaller parties like Lib Dems and Greens.

At this distance of time from an election voters intentions are based on how they feel now about this government as it too is now.

Three years from now if employment and wages are rising the Labour party could get back in with a similar majority. Three years from now, if employment is still growing, prices are rising and the NHS is still the basket case it is now. Labour may not stand a cats chance of returning to power.