Matt Goodwin

MaizieD

sundowngirl

MaizieD

Oreo

It depends how far into the future we wish to look.Remember also that huge numbers are arriving daily by small boat and there’s no stopping that it seems.

As it's all 'fighting age young men' and few women perhaps they might not be able to reproduce themselves too readily...

I would assume that once they are granted leave to remain, they will send for their families. This would likely result in the number of immigrants increasing by at least three to four times for every young man arriving by boat.

Not every young man who arrives by boat is granted asylum and there's no guarantee that they have families to send for. Who knows, they may have been eliminated by the regime they're fleeing from. Nor are they invariably three to four times for every young man.

For goodness sake, get some proportion into your argument.

How rude!!

68% from 2018 - 2024 have been granted asylum, whilst only 3% have been deported or have voluntarily left. Also, they are not all fleeing from persecution by a regime in their own country as it seems you would believe

Are you all aware that immigration numbers are actually going down?
Thought this might be worth repeating.
Maizie, you made me chuckle.

sundowngirl

MaizieD

Oreo

It depends how far into the future we wish to look.Remember also that huge numbers are arriving daily by small boat and there’s no stopping that it seems.

As it's all 'fighting age young men' and few women perhaps they might not be able to reproduce themselves too readily...

I would assume that once they are granted leave to remain, they will send for their families. This would likely result in the number of immigrants increasing by at least three to four times for every young man arriving by boat.

Not every young man who arrives by boat is granted asylum and there's no guarantee that they have families to send for. Who knows, they may have been eliminated by the regime they're fleeing from. Nor are they invariably three to four times for every young man.

For goodness sake, get some proportion into your argument.

sixandahalf

What an absolutely horrible discussion. Really.

Why????

MaizieD

Oreo

It depends how far into the future we wish to look.Remember also that huge numbers are arriving daily by small boat and there’s no stopping that it seems.

As it's all 'fighting age young men' and few women perhaps they might not be able to reproduce themselves too readily...

I would assume that once they are granted leave to remain, they will send for their families. This would likely result in the number of immigrants increasing by at least three to four times for every young man arriving by boat.

What an absolutely horrible discussion. Really.

The white population that live there...

It's all well saying the percentage of the population which are Muslim is 6%ish but the small town next to me is 52% Muslim...so the people that live there will believe what Matt Goodwin says I would think.

MaizieD

Oreo

It depends how far into the future we wish to look.Remember also that huge numbers are arriving daily by small boat and there’s no stopping that it seems.

As it's all 'fighting age young men' and few women perhaps they might not be able to reproduce themselves too readily...

They will all marry and produce children at some point.

Oreo

It depends how far into the future we wish to look.Remember also that huge numbers are arriving daily by small boat and there’s no stopping that it seems.

The numbers arriving by small boat are not huge in the context of the total population.

Oreo

It depends how far into the future we wish to look.Remember also that huge numbers are arriving daily by small boat and there’s no stopping that it seems.

As it's all 'fighting age young men' and few women perhaps they might not be able to reproduce themselves too readily...

I really dislike this obsession with arriving at percentages, as mentioned, to describe people and to put them in boxes.

Sorry to harp back to education as an example, but every year the DfE in its wisdom sends out pupil census forms for the Head to complete. You have to write down next to every pupil a code like WBRI, BAFR, BSOM etc to describe their ethnicity. There's 40 of these flipping codes to choose from and from which percentage figures are worked out! So how does that actually help anyone?

I was lucky. I used to cross through every box and write the word "child" as that's what they were, stuff their ethnicity! We never got questioned about this. (Private school).

Saying there's 20% Muslims, 40% or 60% is of no real relevance in most cases.

Allira

Meandrogrog

I am finding this all very interesting and will be looking into .toynbee further. Its fascinating how empires rise and fall, the weaknesses that cause this to happen.

My feeling is that extremists /those without a conscience of harming others, unfortunately rise to the top, ie Afghanistan and Iran, Russia and China.

They seize power, and take control. Who would be able to stop this happening here? I believe Matt Goodwin pointed out that the Muslim population in the UK will be 60% to 40%, on his calculations.

Who knows how this will all pan out in the future?

My feeling is that extremists /those without a conscience of harming others, unfortunately rise to the top
They seize power, and take control

You mean like Nigel Farage and Matt Goodwin? 😲

Matt Goodwin isn't managing much rising at the moment...

Matt Goodwin pointed out that the Muslim population in the UK will be 60% to 40%, on his calculations.

I went and had a word with the lazy woman's friend, Chatgtp, who said that Goodwin had never actually said that. So, unless that is a direct quote I inclined to believe AI.

It also told me that 'popular belief' exaggerates the proportion of the UK population which is Muslim. When asked to say what percentage of the population is Muslim they tend to give an estimate 4 to 6 times greater than the reality, which is about 6%

Cossy has covered a lot in her post.

AI tells me that while there might be a higher birth rate now succeeding generations tend to lower their birth rate to about the national 'norm'.

As Islam is a religion, not an ethnic group we have to remember that there is a tendency for a growing number of people to claim that they have 'no religion' (census data) so any current extrapolation of numbers may be on the high side. I would suspect that anyone trying to nurture fear, as Goodwin does. will certainly go for the high figure. But there is no guarantee that future generations will follow their parents' religion.

It also tells me that Goodwin's own figures only give a Muslim population of about 20% in 2100

Allira

Meandrogrog

I am finding this all very interesting and will be looking into .toynbee further. Its fascinating how empires rise and fall, the weaknesses that cause this to happen.

My feeling is that extremists /those without a conscience of harming others, unfortunately rise to the top, ie Afghanistan and Iran, Russia and China.

They seize power, and take control. Who would be able to stop this happening here? I believe Matt Goodwin pointed out that the Muslim population in the UK will be 60% to 40%, on his calculations.

Who knows how this will all pan out in the future?

My feeling is that extremists /those without a conscience of harming others, unfortunately rise to the top
They seize power, and take control

You mean like Nigel Farage and Matt Goodwin? 😲

Hardly!

Corbyn almost rose to the top ..there are two points of view, cream rises to the top and floats and so does the other thing🤦🏻‍♀️

Oreo

Or Starmer?

Starmer is not an extremist.

I find Polanski odd.

Or Starmer?

And Zack Polanski?😄

Meandrogrog

I am finding this all very interesting and will be looking into .toynbee further. Its fascinating how empires rise and fall, the weaknesses that cause this to happen.

My feeling is that extremists /those without a conscience of harming others, unfortunately rise to the top, ie Afghanistan and Iran, Russia and China.

They seize power, and take control. Who would be able to stop this happening here? I believe Matt Goodwin pointed out that the Muslim population in the UK will be 60% to 40%, on his calculations.

Who knows how this will all pan out in the future?

My feeling is that extremists /those without a conscience of harming others, unfortunately rise to the top
They seize power, and take control

You mean like Nigel Farage and Matt Goodwin? 😲

It depends how far into the future we wish to look.Remember also that huge numbers are arriving daily by small boat and there’s no stopping that it seems.

Cossy 14.24 "So, where has Goodwin got his stats, both projected and real, from?? Does he name his sources?"

Perhaps the OP could provide the sources MG uses 🤷‍♀️.

Statisticians and scientists are far more able than I to most importantly critique and analyse MG's predictions, assumptions and mis placed extrapolations wherever data sources he is using. For example he may alight on a particular measure- e.g. the proportion of children born in UK where one or both parents were not born in the UK. Then he may conflate that to the factual measure of proportion of countries mirrored in immigration figures- e.g Indian Pakistani being the largest group. Then he may conflate that further and make an assumption that the children born to mothers where one parent not born in the UK is therefore more likely to have a parent that is born in a Muslim country and therefore will be become a practising Muslim. Then he will conflate that to population rising year by year- and hey presto- he's arrived at his current view that the Muslim proportion will rise to 40-60% by year X based on all those various extrapolations and assumptions. Then his pronouncements become Reform's rallying call.

I could be wrong- and am more than willing to be proved wrong. I will be delighted if anyone is able to list what data sources MG has used and how he specifically arrived at his increase in the muslim population prediction, that stands up to rational, fair, well reasoned scrutiny.

So, where has Goodwin got his stats, both projected and real, from?? Does he name his sources?

Sorry, the below is long, but this is what I can find re Muslims in the UK from various sources:-

According to the latest available data, Muslims make up approximately 6% to 6.5% of the total UK population.

Based on findings from the 2021 Census (and subsequent analysis), the official figures for the Muslim population in the UK are as follows:

Total Number: As of the 2021 census, there were nearly 4 million Muslims in the UK, with roughly 3.87 million in England and Wales, 119,000 in Scotland, and roughly 11,000 in Northern Ireland.

Percentage: This represented roughly 5.9%–6.5% of the total population.
Growth: This is an increase from 4.9% (2.7 million) in 2011.

Regional Concentration: The Muslim population is concentrated in urban areas, with 15% of Londoners identifying as Muslim, making it the most concentrated region in the country.

Note: The 2021 census results were released in late 2022, with subsequent analysis published by bodies such as the Muslim Council of Britain (MCB), providing the figures up to 2025/2026.

Why are there so many Muslims in the UK?

There are many Muslims in the UK primarily due to post-World War II immigration from former British colonies like Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh, seeking better economic opportunities, alongside later waves of refugees and economic migrants from Africa (Somalia, Nigeria) and the Middle East, with a significant portion of the current Muslim population being UK-born and younger, leading to natural growth and integration.

Key Factors for Growth:

Post-War Labour Needs: After WWII, Britain needed workers for rebuilding and the developing NHS, leading to recruitment from the Commonwealth, especially the Indian subcontinent.
Economic Opportunity:

Many immigrants came for significantly higher wages and a better material life compared to their home countries.
Commonwealth Ties:

Links to the UK through the Commonwealth facilitated migration from countries like Pakistan, India, and later, African nations.

Refuge & Conflict:

Wars and political instability in places like Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, and Algeria prompted refugee flows to the UK.

Family Reunification:

Early immigrants often brought family members over later, establishing communities.

Natural Increase:

A significant and growing percentage of British Muslims are now UK-born, particularly younger generations, contributing to population growth.

Projections indicate the UK Muslim population could rise to approximately 17.2% by 2050 (around 13 million people) under high migration scenarios, up from nearly 7% in 2025.

Medium migration forecasts suggest a similar 16.7% share, while a "zero migration" scenario still projects a rise to 9.7.

This growth is primarily driven by younger demographics, higher birth rates, and migration.

Projected Figures: Estimates range from 9.7% to 17.2% by 2050, depending on migration levels.

Current Standing: The Muslim Council of Britain reports that Muslims are the fastest-growing religious group in the UK, reaching 7% of the population as of 2025.

Demographic Factors: The Pew Research Center notes that even if migration completely stopped, the UK Muslim population would likely still grow due to a younger age structure compared to the general population.

Growth Context: The UK has one of the higher projected increases in Muslim population within Europe, with figures similar to France (18%) and Germany (19.7%) by 2050.

This bears no relation to Goodwin’s (scaremongering, eye watering) stats of 40%-60% - people of his ilk are the very reason that sometimes, some people, refer to Reform supporters as “ignorant” and “uneducated”, because instead of actually challenging where these figures come from, or doing their own digging or fact-checking, they simply accept everything coming out of Reforms mouthpieces as true.

Personally, I factcheck, challenge and research all statements which appear to have been exaggerated or that I simply believe are not true, even if I support or respect the person from whom these statements originate.

In my humble opinion, repeating completely unfounded and in some cases untrue statistics and statements is immoral, dangerous and divisive. To do it accidentally is bad enough, to do this deliberately is down right dangerous.

No wonder Reform have so many supporters if they’re happy to believe such rot!

Matt Goodwin's is unable to 'calculate' population patterns/increases/changes etc- he can only make 'predictions' by making on 'assumptions' and only do this on previous immigration patterns and data at the time available when he made his 'assumptions'.

What is factually available however rather than assumptions is the most recent immigration data. This shows a dramatic fall in immigration numbers heading towards net zero.

Migration Observatory 27 November 2025 "migration observatory.ox.ac.uk' reported a fall of 78%. In the year ending June 2025 (almost one year into Labour term) a reduction of roughly 70-80% to an annual total of approx 204,000- down from a peak of 900,000 in 2023. This sharp drop was driven by a 662,000 drop in non EU net migration and fuelled by tightened visa rules and health care workers. If this sharp drop continues we could reach a net zero immigration level within Labour's term or lower.

Matt Goodwin's assumptions are merely assumptions and a provocative statement that the UK will become 60%muslim is merely that- a provocative assumption based on misplaced assumptions where the migration patterns and numbers are changing.

Oreo

Graphite

You’re choice, Oreo, to close your ears and eyes. We can chose to challenge the assertion that Goodwin has written an “excellent piece”, to engage fully with a topic or to post drive-by sarcasm.

You’re mixing me up with the OP now! I haven’t said it was an excellent piece.I would have to read more of the book to have a real opinion on it.

No she's not. She's referring to the OP's words, 'excellent piece' and saying that people will respond to them in whatever way they feel fit. Whether it's in their own words or quoting something.

Her response is a in answer to your complaint about the length and form of others' posts.