Seven Stage Collapse Pattern: America is at Stage 5

Is Trump accelerating this process?

Haven't read the article just hope we are not drawn into it, Let Trump sort it , he never asked if anyone wanted to join him. Why, because he said he would sort it in two days! I

There were some excellent documentaries on this very theme a few months ago- wish I could remember what channel and what they were called.

I can't see the US surviving Trump's presidency. The country has already changed beyond recognition to outsiders, so it is the insiders who should decided what further changes they want to see.

I find the whole outlook for the US quite depressing though...

Allsorts

Haven't read the article just hope we are not drawn into it, Let Trump sort it , he never asked if anyone wanted to join him. Why, because he said he would sort it in two days! I

It's a video Allsorts, not an article. I found it fascinating but am still processing it.

Interesting keepingquiet. Some people are very good at detecting patterns. Maybe we've reach a point where it's possible to compare past patterns with what's happening to the USA.

It is possible to copy some or all of the transcript but I really don't think that I would be helping anyone by doing that.

Many of us on here grew up getting our news from newspapers, television and radio, and I still think those sources do a valuable job. Organisations like the BBC or the major papers have experienced journalists and editorial checks that are important.

TV and print news are very good at telling us what has happened, but because of time and space limits they can’t always go into much detail about how something works, why it matters, or what the evidence behind it is. Online reporting sometimes fills that gap with longer explainers, data, or specialist analysis. I think that is where videos like this one come in.

There us a phenomenon called false balance (sometimes “false equivalence”). It happens when media give equal weight to two sides of a debate even when the evidence is not equally strong. This is where online background information, historical comparisons can help us.

Maremia 14.02: "Is Trump accelerating this process?"

Ye, I think he might be. That is not a huge surprise to the world looking at the impact of Trump's domestic and world stage actions over the past 12 months and his MAGA, expansionist ideology. We've seen the evidence of domestic US civil unrest, warring on the streets, ICE fatal shootings etc plus his strike on Iran and how that is impacting global economics and creating tensions. The world can see his goals are chaotic, not well planned and not well thought through. It's a question of when not if as long as Trump remains in power I believe.

When you say a 'global super power collapse' we could also use the term 'Empire collapse' as in the link. Empire collapse could be defined as loss of central control, political fragmentation, economic decline and the fragmentation of vast territories into smaller, often warring successor states. The stages as set out in the video are being repeated around much of the world and there is no doubt the world at the moment is facing many competing climate, geo-political and economic challenges.

The chaotic style, impulsive and belligerent style of Trump coupled with his expansionist goals and provocations add to world empire/super global power chaos and competing geo/political forces. Thus inviting all Empire/global leaders to carefully consider what is in their best interests when Trump comes knocking for support as he is currently is regarding Iran- despite last week saying he didn't needed Starmer's help or support as the war was over! Trump's capricious behaviour causes distrust, diplomatic fallout and he blatantly has not thought through the strategic tactics, risks, consequences and adverse impact of this Iran "excursion".

The Empires/global powers are thus at a point of likely transition/change/shift and regrouping. Empire collapse is a known repeated pattern over the ages in certain circumstances and the ingredients are there for that to happen sooner rather than later. Intelligent political leaders will be considering the signs of Empire collapse, lessons learned and how to position themselves opportunistically to steer their country through transition and towards a new world order. Carney is doing this in a bold, yet planned, deliberate way, as a very close US neighbour with a vast large geographical territory. Carney, as a strategist, chose from the outset not to bow to Trump's whims and instead steer Canada's own path and focus on building resilience and other alliances. UK is less able to do this as a small island, now post Brexit, with low growth and a hollowed out defence budget.

The biggest and longest empire collapse I guess was the Roman Empire. It led its leader being overthrown, to a decline in urban life, population loss in Rome and a gradual transformation of Western Europe into fragmented Germanic kingdoms. The collapse of the British Empire, fairly recent historically, led to its colonies gaining independence, most joined the Commonwealth of Nations. 15 of these, at the moment, including UK retain the same person as Monarch, currently King Charles though this often led to immediate regional conflicts and complex borders issues.

The collapse of the Soviet Union/USSR was driven by severe economic stagnation, the financial burden of the arms race, ethnic nationalism, falling oil prices and reforms that loosened central control. It broke into 15 independent states, including Russia (still a vast territory and Putin has expansionist goals) , Ukraine, Belarus etc that marked the end of the Cold War. Putin openly sought to expand Russian territory by invading Ukraine. It is notable that Trump is currently is helping Putin's expansionist goals by way of the increase oil prices and his decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil sales. This gives Putin the advantage of replenishing his financial coffers for the duration of the Iran "excursion". Increased oil prices in reverse however are adverse for Trump (may yet prove to be his downfall in mid term elections later this year), US citizens and his allies. Trump really did not think his Iran strike through...what's new.

Current day US, China, Russia, EU have all been described as 'Empires'. All 4 represent vast territorial units with global influence in material, institutional and ideological terms.

Trump has been forward in consistently and successively criticising the EU. Conversely he has gone out of his way to build his relationship with Putin- to appease and seemingly position Putin as an ally. Putin is way more strategic than Trump and no doubt will always do what is in the best interests of Russia- with or without Trump. Trump, unwittingly and deplorably is currently challenging the world order of the 4 Empires- US, Russia, EU and China- not in a good way.

Having watched that video I think it's even more important to step away from the US or we will go down with them

It really isn't about Trump per se. It's a very different view of global powers.

There's a pattern in history that has destroyed three global superpowers in the last 500 years. And right now in 2025, the United States is following that exact same pattern stage by stage, decision by decision. Almost like we're reading from the same script that led to catastrophe every single time before.

In 1590, Spain was the richest empire on Earth. They controlled half the world's gold and silver. Their military dominated Europe. Their currency was accepted everywhere. Within 80 years, they were bankrupt. A second-rate power that never recovered.

In 1914, Britain ruled the largest empire in human history. The sun never set on British territory. The pound sterling was the global reserve currency. Within 40 years, the empire was gone. The currency collapsed. They became America's junior partner.

In 1991, the Soviet Union was the other superpower. Nuclear weapons, global influence, satellites spanning the globe. It ceased to exist in 900 days. Not from war, but from economic implosion.

Three times, three superpowers, three complete collapses, all following the exact same sequence. And here's what should terrify you. The United States has already completed five of the seven stages. We're not approaching the pattern. We're deep inside it. This is the story of how empires die, why they always think they're different, and why the math says that the United States is next, and it's happening faster than anyone wants to admit.

Before we go through the pattern, you need to understand what imperial collapse actually looks like. Not in textbooks, but in practice. What it means when a superpower dies. Imperial collapse doesn't start with invasion or military defeat. It starts with economic exhaustion. The empire extends beyond its ability to maintain itself. Military bases in 150 countries, wars on multiple fronts, promises it cannot keep, debts it cannot repay. At first, the decline is invisible. The currency still works. The military still wins battles. The government still makes promises. But beneath the surface, the foundation is cracking. Resources are misallocated. Productive capacity shrinks. The best and brightest people leave. And then comes the acceleration. Allies start hedging. Enemies test boundaries. Trade partners seek alternatives. The reserve currency status erodess. And suddenly the advantages that made you powerful become vulnerabilities.

It then goes into detail.

AGAA4

Having watched that video I think it's even more important to step away from the US or we will go down with them

Thank you AGAA4. It's certainly eye opening.

Very interesting post DaisyAnneReturns . I also hope we distance ourselves from the US.

The 'pattern' as outlined in the video exists can be accepted. However Trump as the US leader is not likely to be much interested in the pattern or take any necessary corrective action. I'm with Maremia that he is likely to hasten the process along.

To be honest Lemonjam, without watching the video I can't see how anyone can decide whether the suggestions for the US could or will happen or if there is reason to believe their downfall can be stopped or ... that the writers are seeing correlation as causation. It seems that's one discussion we won't be having.

Just click the link while you are busy doing something 'easy'.
I was washing the dishes, no thought required, and listened to the whole thing.

DAR 18.04- "To be honest Lemonjam, without watching the video I can't see how anyone can decide whether the suggestions for the US could or will happen or if there is reason to believe their downfall can be stopped or ... that the writers are seeing correlation as causation. It seems that's one discussion we won't be having."

I for one did watch the "7 stage collapse Pattern" video setting out Ray Delio's analysis before my first post on this thread. RD's book "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" notes the US is experiencing issues similar to previous declining empires, including high debt, political fragmentation and social decay. How Trump is governing in relation to these issues alongside his expansionist ideology and current actions in relation to Iran 'excursion" is of interest to me at least.

I posted accordingly and in response to Maremia's 14.02 "is Trump accelerating the process"? It's an interesting topic of debate Maremia raised I thought....

Thank you LemonJam . I think my posts may have misled you.

I'm interested in the counter arguements to the one put forward in the video. I found I was very prepared to believe it which immediately red flags it for me. I hoped we would see see alternative views. There was, apparently, critique of the book, mainly citing "historical determinism” and "oversimplified cycles". There has also been some suggestion that technology could break the cycles. And yet ... even the books (and therefore the videos) critiques think it is useful because it "forces readers to think about long-term structural forces in geopolitics."

There have been a number of academics and policy analysts who have expressed partial support for the framework offered in both book and video, though it’s important to note that most supporters don’t fully endorse the exact “cycle formula.” Instead, they tend to agree with the structural forces Dalio highlights: debt cycles, inequality, institutional strength, and great-power competition. That makes me feel much more comfortable

DAR 8.12

There are indeed a myriad of different and competing views re the causes of society/empire/global power decline.

You did not say in your OP that you were interested in posters responding with counter arguments to the view put forward in the video so thank you for that clarification.

Yes historical determinism, but it is always possible to find these patterns.

I think the best way is to think of progress is by tendency😊

It's not predictive, over-simplifies complex processes and is not inevitable: the USA stabilised after the Great Depression - it didn't collapse.

Grantanow

It's not predictive, over-simplifies complex processes and is not inevitable: the USA stabilised after the Great Depression - it didn't collapse.

Maybe because FDR broke the pattern?

Hated by the republicans, who would almost certainly broken the economy.

Whitewavemark2

Grantanow

It's not predictive, over-simplifies complex processes and is not inevitable: the USA stabilised after the Great Depression - it didn't collapse.

Maybe because FDR broke the pattern?

Hated by the republicans, who would almost certainly broken the economy.

FDR broke the pattern because he was greatly influenced by the work of Keynes. A truly great economist whose work has been marginalised for the past 45 years.

We are suffering greatly from the effects of that marginalisation now.

(Mon 16-Mar-26 11:48:34) I couldn't agree more Maizie.

(Mon 16-Mar-26 08:48:03) I'm not sure I'd worked out what was bothering me when I first posted LemonJam. I do realise I rely on friends to 'offer' the "have you looked at it this way" comments.

MaizieD

Whitewavemark2

Grantanow

It's not predictive, over-simplifies complex processes and is not inevitable: the USA stabilised after the Great Depression - it didn't collapse.

Maybe because FDR broke the pattern?

Hated by the republicans, who would almost certainly broken the economy.

FDR broke the pattern because he was greatly influenced by the work of Keynes. A truly great economist whose work has been marginalised for the past 45 years.

We are suffering greatly from the effects of that marginalisation now.

😊😊

One of the patterns mentioned was over extending a country in trying to give military support.
This latest escapade of Trump's is costing the USA a fortune.
An unnecessary fortune.
Which nation, or nations, is holding the USA national debt?