Andy Burnham has plan to return to Westminster ‘within weeks’. Allies sayGreater Manchester mayor said to have identified seats where MPs would step aside to allow leadership bid.

Makerfield prediction according to Electoral Calculus.

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Makerfield

Al Carns originally said he didn't want to stand, sensibly,
as he has only been an MP for two years. Perhaps he will have a go for the experience.
David Miliband missed his chance at the time of Gordon Brown; he who hesitates is lost, which is why I think Sweeting has jumped in first. As for the other Miliband, my considered opinion is that he is mad.
Policies are important, but as we have learned through bitter experience, they can be changed.
I would be very cross as a constituent if Burnham was drafted in to my patch. Broken promises.

Well it looks as though there’s the possibility Andy returns to parliament. If there’s a leadership challenge, I have someone I can vote for

eazybee

Al Carns originally said he didn't want to stand, sensibly,
as he has only been an MP for two years. Perhaps he will have a go for the experience.
David Miliband missed his chance at the time of Gordon Brown; he who hesitates is lost, which is why I think Sweeting has jumped in first. As for the other Miliband, my considered opinion is that he is mad.
Policies are important, but as we have learned through bitter experience, they can be changed.
I would be very cross as a constituent if Burnham was drafted in to my patch. Broken promises.

You make a good point, but I think if I were a Makerfield constituent, I would prefer Andy Burnham to Josh Simons.

Are you a bit confused eazybee or am I, as I’m not aware that David Milliband has indicated he wants to return to politics? I wish he would though.

Subject to the NEC not blocking Burnham, the only possible contender with any realistic chance of success against him in Makerfield, is a Reform UK candidate.

Yes, Farage said he will throw 'everything but the kitchen sink' against Burnham but then he said that for the recent G and D and Reform still lost. What individual could Reform UK actually field, of a credible calibre and experience to match Burnham? In addition the electorate would be fully aware that it is also a vote to enable Burnham to return to front line politics and be a possible contender in a leadership challenge.

Makerfield constituency is also is in Greater Manchester, so the electorate has already voted three times in the GM Mayoral elections. Burnham was successful each and every time.

Burnham is a stronger, more experienced candidate than the incumbent and he lives in the area. So although it cannot in any way be described as a "safe seat" I think Burnham stands a good chance of success. I hope he wins.

Twaddle 19.11- I agree.

It was Labour Party members who voted for Ed not David I believe? And I was one of them. Yet another mistake after I voted for Michael Foot.

I wouldn't call your voting for Ed or Michael Foot mistakes MayBee70. Just wanting what they were offering.

Now I really made a mistake in voting for Keir Starmer, I believed that he meant what he was saying, I believed that he meant his pledges. More fool me!

I think it is a high risk - Burnham. Reform may have peaked but they are still a danger, even though the candidate is likely to be an idiot of the first order.

This whole thing is a disaster imo.

Always liked David Milliband better than Ed.

Yes it's a disaster, no-one likes Kier but he did lead the party to a landslide victory after being Leader of the Opposition for 4 years, so he's evidently not un-electable.

Nor has he done much wrong since election, that I can make out. & he's got a lot of things right.

I wouldn't be completely confident about a labour win in that area, look at the local elections results and people also don't always take kindly to political maneuvering involving their constituency.

LemonJam

Subject to the NEC not blocking Burnham, the only possible contender with any realistic chance of success against him in Makerfield, is a Reform UK candidate.

Yes, Farage said he will throw 'everything but the kitchen sink' against Burnham but then he said that for the recent G and D and Reform still lost. What individual could Reform UK actually field, of a credible calibre and experience to match Burnham? In addition the electorate would be fully aware that it is also a vote to enable Burnham to return to front line politics and be a possible contender in a leadership challenge.

Makerfield constituency is also is in Greater Manchester, so the electorate has already voted three times in the GM Mayoral elections. Burnham was successful each and every time.

Burnham is a stronger, more experienced candidate than the incumbent and he lives in the area. So although it cannot in any way be described as a "safe seat" I think Burnham stands a good chance of success. I hope he wins.

Reform threw everything at winning Wales as a flagship government too, but didn’t get close, so I wouldn’t say it’s a foregone conclusion at all. However, it would obviously be more likely that Burnham got a seat if he stood somewhere that had a large Labour majority in the last election, that would increase his chances (weirdly, chances autocorrected to Vance’s, which would not be good, we don’t want to increase Vance’s.)

This would seem to be very chancy as Reform came second in Makerfield at the GE with quite a large proportion of the vote.

It's a gamble and far too risky imo.

I’m increasingly thinking they will wait until the autumn.

valdali

Always liked David Milliband better than Ed.

Yes it's a disaster, no-one likes Kier but he did lead the party to a landslide victory after being Leader of the Opposition for 4 years, so he's evidently not un-electable.

Nor has he done much wrong since election, that I can make out. & he's got a lot of things right.

But it is not true that ‘no one likes Keir’. That’s just the spin that the news media have put on things.

I reluctantly reached agreement with the Keir must go group in recent days.
Ultimately, the CEO takes responsibility when the organisation is losing clients and credibility to the extent Labour is. It’s dreadful, he’s good internationally, has integrity but appears unable to lead the party and give the electorate short, clear indications of intent.
Labour Party members get regular emails setting out achievements. Somehow none of this is reported on……

I hope Andy wins and returns to Westminster. It’s high risk but seems an indicator of how serious things are

Casdon

LemonJam

Subject to the NEC not blocking Burnham, the only possible contender with any realistic chance of success against him in Makerfield, is a Reform UK candidate.

Yes, Farage said he will throw 'everything but the kitchen sink' against Burnham but then he said that for the recent G and D and Reform still lost. What individual could Reform UK actually field, of a credible calibre and experience to match Burnham? In addition the electorate would be fully aware that it is also a vote to enable Burnham to return to front line politics and be a possible contender in a leadership challenge.

Makerfield constituency is also is in Greater Manchester, so the electorate has already voted three times in the GM Mayoral elections. Burnham was successful each and every time.

Burnham is a stronger, more experienced candidate than the incumbent and he lives in the area. So although it cannot in any way be described as a "safe seat" I think Burnham stands a good chance of success. I hope he wins.

Reform threw everything at winning Wales as a flagship government too, but didn’t get close, so I wouldn’t say it’s a foregone conclusion at all. However, it would obviously be more likely that Burnham got a seat if he stood somewhere that had a large Labour majority in the last election, that would increase his chances (weirdly, chances autocorrected to Vance’s, which would not be good, we don’t want to increase Vance’s.)

I agree- it would be more likely Burnham would win with more than just a slim Labour majority.

However if he does win Makerfield, and if he increases the current majority it would be a very clear message that he can withstand Reform challenge that has been "everything but the kitchen sink". That would stand him in god stead for any leadership challenge vote.

I cannot see why Kier has to go. I cannot see he has done anything wrong.

For my taste he is insufficiently radical on social policy and renationalisation, but I get the feeling that is what most people want. So what's the problem?

The media have decided he lacks charisma - nothing exciting to report as was the case with BJ who was always courting silly publicity - so they talk him down and ignore the solid pair of hands that we needed.

Yes - he needs to rethink mid-term and get some Labour policies to the fore - but I cannot see any good reason why he is being vilified, except that this is what the media want.

The Reform gains in the local elections are par for the course - this is the sort of thing that always happens mid term - but Labour are allowing this to dictate what they do next and donating power to Reform. Nuts!

They should take it as a sign that so far the government has been insufficiently radical and just blooming well get on with it.

I cannot see why Kier has to go. I cannot see he has done anything wrong.

Apart from a whole heap of things I could list[not going to as everything has been discussed before], the electorate dont like him!
Well, dont vote for him.
Labour Party, in my opinion, are heading same was as conservatives, 100 seats left!
Having already lost 1450[whatever the number was] Local Council seats.

Casdon

I’m increasingly thinking they will wait until the autumn.

Me too.

I’ve just seen that Streeting is not going to stand, he’s come out and said he is supporting Burnham.

fancythat

^I cannot see why Kier has to go. I cannot see he has done anything wrong.^

Apart from a whole heap of things I could list[not going to as everything has been discussed before], the electorate dont like him!
Well, dont vote for him.
Labour Party, in my opinion, are heading same was as conservatives, 100 seats left!
Having already lost 1450[whatever the number was] Local Council seats.

the electorate dont like him!

That is a very sweeping statement.
Many still do and are dismayed at what is happening.

Just wait to see what a mess Reform make of local government.
Of course, they may fill all the potholes 🤔

^he electorate dont like him!

That is a very sweeping statement.
Many still do and are dismayed at what is happening.^

Well, it has spooked enough to get us to this point.

I suppose often the electorate didn't like who they ended up with.

The PM didn't have to endure trial by social media.