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Has the Conservative Party peaked after so many years and what can Badenoch do to lead it away from its current decline?

(115 Posts)
LemonJam Sun 09-Aug-26 10:54:15

There is a recent election result that tells a story of Conservative decline along with a series of decisions that confirm that, when it comes to both strategy and judgment, Badenoch is lacking.

Start with the Get Manchester Mayoral contest from a week ago. For many, the standout fact of the byelection to replace Andy Burnham as mayor of Greater Manchester was that Reform came a very poor second, taking just 21% of the vote to Labour’s 47%. A crushing defeat for Nigel Farage’s party, which a matter of weeks earlier had talked up its chances of winning the mayoralty.

But run your finger further down the vote tally until it finally reaches the Conservative candidate on a mere 7.7%. In all the previous mayoral contests in Greater Manchester, the Tories were in second place. This time they were fifth behind Restore Britain a party of the hard right. A Tory result that bad among such a large electorate of 3 million people suggests not merely that Badenoch is making slow progress, but that she is moving her party backwards.

Her strategic response to this competition on the right has been to move towards her rivals, hoping to blunt the appeal of the nationalist populist parties by matching their offer . The latest step came late on Thursday with, as the Telegraph billed it, a Tory “promise to end council housing for foreigners”. Badenoch’s pledge is to evict almost 230,000 non-EU foreign national households from their homes.

Never mind that many of those turfed out will include people who have been living, working and paying taxes in Britain for years. Once evicted, those families, including their children, will be rendered homeless, leaving local councils with the choice of either abandoning them to the streets or providing much costlier emergency accommodation. Consider the timing.

Badenoch decided the right moment to demand foreigners be kicked out of their homes was as the Norfolk town of Thetford entered its third night of violence and disorder, triggered by a mob surrounding the accommodation of suspected asylum seekers, some in the crowd trying to force their way in, as others threw rocks and chanted: “We want them out.” Into this tinderbox of a situation walked the Conservative party leader, clutching a petrol can.

Just a day or two earlier, she had been defending the selection as a Somerset council candidate of Joshua Bonehill-Paine, a man who has served long jail sentences for, among other things, a sustained campaign of antisemitic harassment and abuse of the Jewish former MP Luciana Berger, a campaign that saw Berger branded an “evil money-grabber”, her face superimposed on the body of a rat and photographs of her doctored into multiple, sexualised images. He has offered no apology to Berger. Badenoch herself conceded that Bonehill-Paine would not have cleared the threshold to become an MP but serving as a councillor was different, she explained, as he would be responsible for nothing more than “parking and bins” – thereby, and at a stroke, insulting the many thousands of Conservatives who devote themselves to public service in their local communities. She then appoints him to a national party advisor role.

Badenoch surely must realise she can’t outperform Reform- so what should she do instead to stop her party’s decline

Oreo Sun 09-Aug-26 14:29:16

I’m embarrassed that the LP has never had a woman to lead it or any person of colour.The Conservatives have had two female PM’s and Rishi Sunak.

Oreo Sun 09-Aug-26 14:29:59

I can’t count Liz Truss really as her tenure was so short!

Chocolatelovinggran Sun 09-Aug-26 14:41:58

I agree Oreo. The Labour party has had many competent women overlooked.
I also agree that Liz Truss doesn't count.
I'm amazed that the ethnicity of anyone could be seen as a matter of any interest
I was impressed with Rishi Sunak, because he seemed a competent, compassionate, intelligent Prime Minister. His racial origins were none of my business.

Visgir1 Sun 09-Aug-26 14:48:34

Of course Conservative will vote for Kemi. They don't worried about colour of the skin, religion, male or female either.
I have no doubt they will rise again.

mum2three Sun 09-Aug-26 14:51:17

She may not be truly British in the full sense of the word, but she has a lot going for her. She's intelligent, articulate and not afraid to say what she thinks.
The Conservatives lost their identity for a while and became more like Liberals. I think they are now realising their mistake and getting back on track.
I think they have a good chance of winning the next election and hopefully will stop the rot.

AGAA4 Sun 09-Aug-26 14:58:32

I would like to see the Conservatives get better. I don't believe Badenoch is the right person to do that.
Johnson ruined them completely during his time as PM and it will take someone better than KB to get them firmly back on track.
As a former Tory voter I won't be voting for them again until they get someone who thinks before speaking.

twinnytwin Sun 09-Aug-26 14:59:41

I think Kemi is great and she's slowly turning the tide on anti-Conservative views as she comes out with fully considered policies rather than soundbites and ridiculous kneejerk comments from the other parties. She'll have my vote.

Cumbrianmale56 Sun 09-Aug-26 15:28:54

With hindsight, Rishi Sunak wasn't a bad PM. Inflation fell from 11% to 2%, he reduced the tax burden on most people and the economy was starting to grow again. Sadly he had to deal with the fall out from Truss and Johnson. People might judge Rishi better in years to come.
I think Kemi is starting to become a better leader and isn't like Farage, making stupid comments to keep his fan club happy.

eazybee Sun 09-Aug-26 16:07:42

The Conservatives have 14 years of misrule to apologise for, as Labour never, ever ceases to remind everyone. But there is only so much mea culpa that is believed, and people are beginning to question when the much-vaunted improvements will arrive. Even Labour supporters are asking, what are you doing about it?
Starmer found to his great astonishment that being PM was rather more difficult than he anticipated; had it been that easy the Tories would have done it. Burnham, who believes his own publicity is discovering his faux charm won't solve the migrant housing problem, the burgeoning welfare state, or pay the Defence Budget. And he knows he has a bunch of conspirators at his back who have tasted blood once and are quite prepared to strike again.
Kemi Badenoch is making slow but steady progress, working out how to actually pay for changes rather than relying on other people's earned wealth. She is identifying the main concerns in this country without having to go on a self-promotional tour, and she is prepared to be unpopular if she has to make hard decisions, unlike Burnham.

DiamondLily Sun 09-Aug-26 16:21:41

I think the Tories are tainted because of the last 14 years, with the mismanagement, and nothing to with their latest leader.

Labour have, so far, been worse than useless, so I guess votes will be scattered across a lot of parties.

Whitewavemark2 Sun 09-Aug-26 16:53:01

Burnham’s popularity outstrips Badenoch’s by 10% points

Oldnproud Sun 09-Aug-26 17:24:04

I am not a Conservative supporter, but I do know a lot of people who are, and although not initially not keen on her (and I have to say, not one of them has ever suggested this was because of her 'race'), many of them were becoming increasingly impressed by her. Even I felt that she had started to grow into the role and become less 'sneery'.
However, it is just as easy to reverse that support with a single ill-judged comment, and I very much doubt that trying to "outperform Reform" will do her any favours in the long run.

westendgirl Sun 09-Aug-26 17:59:38

I thought she was starting to improve and to show her strengths, but then she made those ill judged errors about
Joshua Bonehill Paine and trying to our Reform reform. I think she needs to think more carefully before she comes out with a plan.

Plevey08 Sun 09-Aug-26 18:38:14

Towards the end of Starmer's tenure she was gaining in the polls. She had gained in confidence, her humour was appealing to many and she interviewed well. However I think it has panicked her that AB is now in situ, as his was a populist vote and will require different tactics to influence voters. Her poor judgement of late may indicate her apprehension with the change in PM.

MayBee70 Sun 09-Aug-26 21:18:33

When will political parties stop trying to be more Reform’y than Reform are?

Sarnia Sun 09-Aug-26 22:03:27

Whitewavemark2

Burnham’s popularity outstrips Badenoch’s by 10% points

It's early days. I wouldn't put the bunting out yet.

Casdon Sun 09-Aug-26 22:24:52

No, not for either of them. It’s a long time until 2029.

Grantanow Mon 10-Aug-26 00:24:27

Being chosen by members of the Tory Party is no recommendation: remember they chose Truss!

ronib Mon 10-Aug-26 07:30:46

The funny thing about Liz Truss is that bus fares were £2. Burnham announced a reduction in fares with effect from January 2027. I am completely turned off by the state of British politics and no one knows what they are doing.

petra Mon 10-Aug-26 08:07:19

It wouldn’t matter what leader they have.
Their biggest problem is the fact that millions of people from whatever sector of society have woken up to the realisation that
the vast majority of the problems they have points back to Tory cuts starting with George Osborne all those years ago.
There are a lot of educated/ informed people who really do think that Tracy from the fish shop doesn’t see this. Believe me, she does.

Whitewavemark2 Mon 10-Aug-26 08:34:15

petra

It wouldn’t matter what leader they have.
Their biggest problem is the fact that millions of people from whatever sector of society have woken up to the realisation that
the vast majority of the problems they have points back to Tory cuts starting with George Osborne all those years ago.
There are a lot of educated/ informed people who really do think that Tracy from the fish shop doesn’t see this. Believe me, she does.

Yes

Silvershadow Mon 10-Aug-26 09:48:31

M0nica

Silvershadow

She will never be prime minister because Conservative voters will not vote for her. As others have said on another thread she is Nigerian. If I wanted a Nigerian prime minister I’d go and live in Nigeria and many think the same.

There is much more choice than before. The days of Labour or Conservative are over. There’s Reform, Restore, the Lib Dem’s, the Greens.

They will never recover. It’s over.

Why do you object to a British person of Nigerian descent and not object to Prime Ministers of Irish, Scottish, Welsh or Indian descent?

I have reported your post as racist.

From:M0nica
To:SilvershadowSubject:ConservativesDate:Sun 09-Aug-26 12:59:21
Racist

Not only did you report my post that appears to offend you Monica, you also sent me a nasty little PM with one word on it didn’t you, see above those who are interested.

Let’s expose you for the sort of person you are.

Sadly that word has long lost its currency to shut down legitimate debate as we have all seen in the Jason Arday case. You hear something you don’t like, let’s call the person a racist.

Pathetic.

Cossy Mon 10-Aug-26 09:51:25

Smileless2012

Yes she is British and so what if she wasn't, if she's the best candidate for the job.

Absolutely! I don’t “judge” her on her skin colour or nationality and, frankly, anyone who has done so needs to feel ashamed!

Cossy Mon 10-Aug-26 09:57:15

Silvershadow

She will never be prime minister because Conservative voters will not vote for her. As others have said on another thread she is Nigerian. If I wanted a Nigerian prime minister I’d go and live in Nigeria and many think the same.

There is much more choice than before. The days of Labour or Conservative are over. There’s Reform, Restore, the Lib Dem’s, the Greens.

They will never recover. It’s over.

I am sorry if this offends you, this particular post of yours offends me, it sounds racist, even if this was not your intention.

I wouldn’t dream of sending you a private message, nor reporting you.

The way you put this particular post across on here, came across as racist.

I don’t care what colour or nationality our PM or party leaders are, so long as they do their job and they themselves are not judging others on the basis of their skin colour or nationality or faith.

The fact that she is actually British does not help your rhetoric.

nanna8 Mon 10-Aug-26 10:15:46

I think Kemi is great. Good speaker, good debater and a good sense of humour. I have watched her in parliament many times and she doesn’t disappoint . Unfortunately she is up against it because many of her fellow MPs aren’t crash hot. I wish people would stop with this reporting lark it is ridiculous unless obscenity is involved.