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Has the Conservative Party peaked after so many years and what can Badenoch do to lead it away from its current decline?
(115 Posts)There is a recent election result that tells a story of Conservative decline along with a series of decisions that confirm that, when it comes to both strategy and judgment, Badenoch is lacking.
Start with the Get Manchester Mayoral contest from a week ago. For many, the standout fact of the byelection to replace Andy Burnham as mayor of Greater Manchester was that Reform came a very poor second, taking just 21% of the vote to Labour’s 47%. A crushing defeat for Nigel Farage’s party, which a matter of weeks earlier had talked up its chances of winning the mayoralty.
But run your finger further down the vote tally until it finally reaches the Conservative candidate on a mere 7.7%. In all the previous mayoral contests in Greater Manchester, the Tories were in second place. This time they were fifth behind Restore Britain a party of the hard right. A Tory result that bad among such a large electorate of 3 million people suggests not merely that Badenoch is making slow progress, but that she is moving her party backwards.
Her strategic response to this competition on the right has been to move towards her rivals, hoping to blunt the appeal of the nationalist populist parties by matching their offer . The latest step came late on Thursday with, as the Telegraph billed it, a Tory “promise to end council housing for foreigners”. Badenoch’s pledge is to evict almost 230,000 non-EU foreign national households from their homes.
Never mind that many of those turfed out will include people who have been living, working and paying taxes in Britain for years. Once evicted, those families, including their children, will be rendered homeless, leaving local councils with the choice of either abandoning them to the streets or providing much costlier emergency accommodation. Consider the timing.
Badenoch decided the right moment to demand foreigners be kicked out of their homes was as the Norfolk town of Thetford entered its third night of violence and disorder, triggered by a mob surrounding the accommodation of suspected asylum seekers, some in the crowd trying to force their way in, as others threw rocks and chanted: “We want them out.” Into this tinderbox of a situation walked the Conservative party leader, clutching a petrol can.
Just a day or two earlier, she had been defending the selection as a Somerset council candidate of Joshua Bonehill-Paine, a man who has served long jail sentences for, among other things, a sustained campaign of antisemitic harassment and abuse of the Jewish former MP Luciana Berger, a campaign that saw Berger branded an “evil money-grabber”, her face superimposed on the body of a rat and photographs of her doctored into multiple, sexualised images. He has offered no apology to Berger. Badenoch herself conceded that Bonehill-Paine would not have cleared the threshold to become an MP but serving as a councillor was different, she explained, as he would be responsible for nothing more than “parking and bins” – thereby, and at a stroke, insulting the many thousands of Conservatives who devote themselves to public service in their local communities. She then appoints him to a national party advisor role.
Badenoch surely must realise she can’t outperform Reform- so what should she do instead to stop her party’s decline
FriedGreenTomatoes2
Oh don’t be silly Whitewave so much hyperbole in your post
Of course our grandchildren will have rights and protection
It’s just the European set of rules Reform UK would be leaving
I don't like to point this out to you, FGT, but we in Britain are European.
That Britain was instrumental in drawing up the European Convention on Human Rights.
That the ECHR is fundamental to the Good Friday Agreement. (not that peace in NI seems terribly important to many people)
That sensible people don't give up their rights unless they know that whatever replaces the convention we work under has been comprehensively worked out, publicly available and takes nothing away from the rights they already enjoy.
sundowngirl
LissieDrip applauding "it will undoubtedly get far worse with continual war and climate change rendering large parts of the world uninhabitable"
Unbelievable!!
It's far more believable than trusting demagogues...
Badenoch was schooled in Nigeria until age 16. She will never be in power because the British people dont want a Nigerian as prime minister. She has been constantly trying to emulate Reform which would be taking the UK in the wrong direction, too far to the right. I call her the Conservatives' useful idiot as being black allows her to say outrageous statements regarding people of colour. She appears to get away with this whereas if a white politician made those statements they would be labelled as racist.
Bring back Boris!
mum2three
She may not be truly British in the full sense of the word, but she has a lot going for her. She's intelligent, articulate and not afraid to say what she thinks.
The Conservatives lost their identity for a while and became more like Liberals. I think they are now realising their mistake and getting back on track.
I think they have a good chance of winning the next election and hopefully will stop the rot.
I dont think the Conservatives will win the next election. They caused this mess in their 14 years of rule. Covid has nothing to do with this as the rot of closures, not building enough homes, etc started before covid.
Oldnproud
I am not a Conservative supporter, but I do know a lot of people who are, and although not initially not keen on her (and I have to say, not one of them has ever suggested this was because of her 'race'), many of them were becoming increasingly impressed by her. Even I felt that she had started to grow into the role and become less 'sneery'.
However, it is just as easy to reverse that support with a single ill-judged comment, and I very much doubt that trying to "outperform Reform" will do her any favours in the long run.
I totally agree. Trying to outperform Reform is where she is hoping wrong.
Badenoch is not the problem for the Tory party, the problems are Farage and Lowe who are splitting the right of center vote.
The threat to Labour is a coalition not a majority, in those circumstances we are guessing at the PM who will lead that. It all depends on Burnham holding together the Labour Party and improving the economy, we will know a lot more at the budget this autumn.
Does the USA have a Court of Human Rights?
Why shouldn't we stay with the European version?
After all, we may not be in the EU, at the moment, but we are still European.
Voters won't forget the 14 years that Conservatives were in power and the numerous time they said they would reduce immigration and did the complete opposite that's what finished Sunak the small boats crisis and that's what will finish Labour and Burnham especially the HMOs Rayners brainwave Operation Scatter, putting foreign men we know nothing about into houses next to families and Serco out bidding British people on rents to do so, you couldn't make it up could you putting these men before British people, no wonder people are turning to Reform the only party in my opinion with any idea how to fix this mess this country is in.
And yet the first poll putting both Labour and the Tories ahead of Reform was published yesterday. People are disillusioned with Farage now, Both Reform and his personal popularity are on the decline currently, which has to be good news for the Tories.
If there is any danger of Reform losing momentum due to Farage then he, like so many others before him, will be ousted.
No way the Conservatives are ahead of Reform yes perhaps Burnham ( the so called Burnham bounce) is slightly ahead but it's early days yet. Don't believe all the polls remember Brexit it was a given Remain would win and look how that turned out. It's Reform who are winning nearly all the Council seats.
From GB News, no less.
www.gbnews.com/politics/nigel-farage-reform-labour-tories-poll-lord-ashcroft
MaizieD
FriedGreenTomatoes2
Oh don’t be silly Whitewave so much hyperbole in your post
Of course our grandchildren will have rights and protection
It’s just the European set of rules Reform UK would be leavingI don't like to point this out to you, FGT, but we in Britain are European.
That Britain was instrumental in drawing up the European Convention on Human Rights.
That the ECHR is fundamental to the Good Friday Agreement. (not that peace in NI seems terribly important to many people)
That sensible people don't give up their rights unless they know that whatever replaces the convention we work under has been comprehensively worked out, publicly available and takes nothing away from the rights they already enjoy.
I remember you said much the same over Brexit fgt and look how that has turned out.
You will forgive me if I doubt your judgement.
Maremia
Does the USA have a Court of Human Rights?
Why shouldn't we stay with the European version?
After all, we may not be in the EU, at the moment, but we are still European.
And the ECHR has nothing to do with the EU. It is mere coincidence that it happens to cover some EU member states.
At the next GE unless there is a major upset the result will be either Labour continue OR a right of center coalition, neither the Tories nor Reform are likely to get an outright majority, Reform will field a lot of candidates erode the Tory votes
but only win few more seats.
3 yrs is a very long time in politics
The UK cannot just leave the ECHR without repealing the Human Rights Act 1998.
Whatever nonsense Reform spouts (and its fans believe) it isn’t going to happen, nor least because Reform could never form a credible government. Even if it could, it would never get such a radical change past the House of Lords where it has no peers.
Under certain circumstances a bill can be passed without the agreement of the Lords. The Parliament Acts allow the Commons to send a bill for Royal Assent even if the Lords haven’t passed it, provided that certain conditions are met and not less than 13 months have passed since the bill initially received its second reading in the Commons. In practice, it’s very rare for the Parliament Acts to be used.
A Reform government would fail before the year was out so it’s all hot air from Farage and his unelected bag carrier Yusuf.
Greece chose to leave the ECHR in the 70’s.
The sky didn’t fall in.
Yes I do realise we in the UK are European. Of course.
And yes I also realise Reform UK have few MPs and Farage is unlikely to be our next PM. That said, I can no longer vote for the UniParty. I just can’t. Keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result is madness.
fgt not so. Gradually, the freedoms have been eroded, noticeably press freedom and civil space. So humanitarian groups are beginning to be criminalised. The Greek government uses spyware to spy on journalists, civil servants, politicians and private individuals.
There have been instances of torture and degrading treatment.
Whether that constitutes the sky falling in is a matter of opinion, but it looks pretty foggy from where I am sitting.
FriedGreenTomatoes2
Greece chose to leave the ECHR in the 70’s.
The sky didn’t fall in.
Yes I do realise we in the UK are European. Of course.
And yes I also realise Reform UK have few MPs and Farage is unlikely to be our next PM. That said, I can no longer vote for the UniParty. I just can’t. Keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result is madness.
And did it solve the migrant problem?
AI Overview Maybee
Greece has not completely solved its migrant challenges, though arrival numbers on certain routes have fallen due to aggressive deterrence policies. The country remains a primary entry point into Europe, balancing lower overall mainland pressures against shifting maritime routes, recurring spikes from North Africa,
FriedGreenTomatoes2
Greece chose to leave the ECHR in the 70’s.
The sky didn’t fall in.
Yes I do realise we in the UK are European. Of course.
And yes I also realise Reform UK have few MPs and Farage is unlikely to be our next PM. That said, I can no longer vote for the UniParty. I just can’t. Keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result is madness.
You do realise why Greece left the ECHR in 1970 and rejoined in 1974? In the interim I think a lot of Greek people thought the sky had fallen in
Tuliptree
FriedGreenTomatoes2
Greece chose to leave the ECHR in the 70’s.
The sky didn’t fall in.
Yes I do realise we in the UK are European. Of course.
And yes I also realise Reform UK have few MPs and Farage is unlikely to be our next PM. That said, I can no longer vote for the UniParty. I just can’t. Keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result is madness.You do realise why Greece left the ECHR in 1970 and rejoined in 1974? In the interim I think a lot of Greek people thought the sky had fallen in
Not knowing about this I did a bit of googling ( not time to study it properly, got builders coming tomorrow) but am I right in thinking that Greece had to leave anyway because they were torturing people?
Yes they left before they were expelled - it was the military Junta ( 1967-74) - torture, executions, loss of all civil liberties, , no elections, no free press ( obvs). But hey - human right are for wimps and the sky didn’t fall in
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