The Poverty of Brexit

Couldn't find his paperwork, more like. He seems very disorganised.

Apparently Mogg has sufficient support from the ERG MPs to kick May out. I guess the reason it hasn’t yet happened is because they can’t be sure that he will get the leadership. That must be the only reason as he would deliver a cliff edge Brexit immediately as that is what they all want.

David Davis, that is.

I suspect nottoo is right though. But doesn’t he have someone overseeing his diary?

This from Jonathon Lis

“Soft Brexit commands the majority in Parliament. No-deal doesn’t . Mogg can scream and scream until he makes himself sick, but we are not leaving without a deal.”

www.mumsnet.com/uploads/talk/201802/large-37897-dvixjgcx4aa7t27.jpg

Just pinched this from the other place.

John Pinaar reports that the past two days which were billed as making final decisions about Brexit were nothing of the sort.

Nothing decided, nothing done.

"Expect a major row from the headbangers and denial from Number 10

Round and around we go."

And pot stirring continues.

Project Fear is still alive and well and producing anti-Brexit headlines regularly on Gransnet. We have seen just how inaccurate all previous predictions have been, haven't we?

You can continue to hope and pray for disaster if that floats your boat.

The UK is at odds with Brussels in a number of areas: it has demanded a power to object to new rules imposed on it during the transition period, restrictions on the rights of EU citizens who come to Britain during the transition, and the ability to opt in to certain European policies

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-talks-david-davis-michel-barnier-eu-brussels-transition-period-a8203176.html.

It is weird varian because I followed phase 1 quite closely, and I understood that it had all been agreed?

I think it was called a "fudge" - who knows what that means?

Lots of information on this website about what the public now think about Brexit.

ukandeu.ac.uk/new-report-on-brexit-and-public-opinion-reveals-profound-divisions-in-the-uk/

whitewave: It is weird varian because I followed phase 1 quite closely, and I understood that it had all been agreed?

May said it had been agreed. The EU pointed out that the UK still hadn't said what it would accept, that the 'cake and eat it' scenario wasn't on. Do you really believe May?

Seems to me the EU is being very patient. There are fewer and fewer people both here and there who are prepared for the economic damage leaving will produce.
How much longer can people put their fingers in their ears, and say Project Fear La la la I can't hear you :-)

I suspect that behind closed doors in the Brussels EU negotiating headquarters, our negotiating team must be a source of great merriment, and frustration.

Watching from the beginning our side has produced some toe curling embarrassing moments, as well as clear indications that they are either wilfully or ignorantly misunderstanding the EU and the fact that it is entirely guided by its rules. Of course it is how else can it work?

thegreatcritique.wordpress.com/2018/02/10/why-hard-brexit-threatens-war/

The Irish conundrum.

Ireland appears insurmountable doesn’t it?

I pity the civil servants who have been tasked to solving the conundrum, as all logic says that there isn’t an answer.

Just reading in the other place.

If there is a hard Brexit, British truckers will need a licence to drive in the EU 27. There are 1200 available to the U.K.
there are 27000 truckers

Any Kentish grans?

From July 2018 the M20, is to have its central reservation and the 2 fast lanes converted into a massive waiting area. For all the tuckers waiting for a licence presumably.

Expect massive holdups on the M20

This is not the first twitter thread I've seen on these lines and I doubt if it will be the last.

An exporter of electronic goods explains the practical differences between exporting to the EU (No customs borders) and to non-~EU countries (which, however tariff free the trading might be it is still subject to customs borders; 'non-tariff barriers'...

(this is just part of the thread)

When shipping to Europe, the boxes are never opened, there are no checks, no paperwork, no taxes. Everything goes straight through. We therefore do just in time delivery for our customers in Europe.

In Middle East and Africa we have to have warehouses.
This is because the time to cross the border is unpredictable. The border guard has to check the consignment to see if:
1. The shipment is a permitted import, not banned under some local law or other (electronics are often caught up in defence import restrictions).
Often the border guards make honest mistakes in the classifications and hold you up for days whilst it is corrected.

2. The shipment is subject to an import tax. Different classes of products bear different import taxes. Sometimes the regime is very complex.
If you make a mistake in the declarations on your paperwork you are delayed weeks whilst it is corrected.

3. The shipment has to comply with an ever-growing array of local laws like Health & Safety, environmental, local content etc.
Again either mistakes in our paperwork or the guards’ understanding can cause delays.

4. The end customers must be a properly registered business for local taxes and all other laws. If they don’t comply in our paperwork, there are delays.
We often sell to SMEs and they are not always good at this stuff.

5. Sometimes the delays are accidental or honest mistakes. Sometimes they are deliberate. In some countries, the only way to get goods out of a long delay is to pay the Guard a bung in cash...
We can NEVER do this because British law is strict. But a local SME customer can and will and he will then demand a price discount from us to accommodate “logistical costs”. Perversely this incentivises him to tell the Guard to hold it up so that they can split a bribe.

This is a link to the thread 'unrolled'

threadreaderapp.com/thread/961677795008110592.html

Full thread plus comments from others can be seen here:

twitter.com/batanball/status/961677795008110592

No wonder businesses are tearing their hair out at the thought of Brexit...

www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/09/lack-of-migrant-workers-left-food-rotting-in-uk-fields-last-year-data-reveals

That's before we've left.
What's happened to the great army of Brits who have had their jobs taken by EU migrants?
Why weren't they working in the fields last year?

I wonder what Brexiteers think of this? Not exactly bringing back control, is it?

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/feb/09/power-firms-win-uk-subsidies-for-new-electricity-cables-across-the-channel

This brexiteer doesn’t believe half of what is written in the media or spouted by politicians in front of a microphone. Read the books written by the Greek finance minister regarding his country’s negotiations with the EU and you’ll know why! What is said in public and what is done in private are two different things. The EU isn’t one body neatly agreeing on anything but a bag of twenty-odd squirming cats each state looking to get the beast for itself, not the state of the EU. As for the media, each side has an axe to grind and, like Trump, a supporter base to keep happy. Brexit will happen and we will survive and it won’t be a disaster if everybody in this country does what they can to make it a success rather than bleating away while doing their best to sabotage it.

Most of us can do nothing to actually influence how Brexit pans out -
There are varying opinions about Greece and Yannis but of. course we must not forget that there was quite a bit of jiggery-pokery going on for it to appear to pass the necessary tests to enable it to join.

So, mollie, are you saying that you do not believe that we are building three new electricity cables from UK to France because it was in the media?
How weird.
Do you think we should be, as we are supposed to be taking back control of everything from the EU?

Greece was in a completely different situation from the UK. It was in the Euro and had no sovereign control over its money. it also has a population which is very averse to paying its taxes... I agree that the imposition of austerity measures in return for loans to bail them out was not in the least bit helpful, but that is a mainstream economic strategy which the UK has also pursued enthusiastically, to the approval, it seems, of the large numbers of our electorate who voted tory in 2010 and 2015. Despite the fact that it is a strategy which badly damages the economy.

And Greece fiddled their books in order to join the Euro - not a good start.

We are different from Greece, however, in that we have sovereign control of our own currency and we're not in the Euro, nor were ever likely to be. Also, our economy was in much better shape. So saying 'look how 'the EU' treated Greece is not a particularly valid economic argument for Brexit (nor a moral one, really, as most people in the UK think that the 'household model' of economics is perfectly valid so why should they object to it being applied to Greece?)

As to the 'squirming cats' I really think that Leavers should make up their minds. Is 'the EU' a rather nebulous monolithic body which seeks to impose its will on the member countries or is it a 'union' of 28 sovereign countries, all with their own interests and concerns, striving to reach a consensus on what will be best for the members? And yes, politicking plays a great part in what goes on but try looking a bit closer to home, the government of the UK isn't exactly a smooth running collection of like minded people all out for what is best for the UK. It most certainly isn't and 'politicking', and corruption, is never far from the surface. That's how it works when there are so many different interests to reconcile.

Yes, Remainers are trying to stop Brexit, but they regard Brexit as sabotage of the UK's strength and prosperity and, in the face of the mounting evidence of the damage it will do to, at the very least, our economy I think they have every right to do so. The guy whose twitter thread I posted earlier is knowledgeable about the problems and extra costs that it will incur for his business and people with no knowledge of this would do as well to listen, instead of dismissing it as 'bleating'.