Preparing for No Deal

day6 you are pushing against an open door, this thread is about preparing for life post no deal. No one is arguing against it merely pointing out the WTO rules etc.

I wonder just how many, if any, of the red-faced "no-deal" brexit enthusiasts in the carefully selected Question Time audience, have the slightest understanding of any of this.

I see no reason why UK exports shouldn't boom, seeing that the pound is very low and we are still in the EU, so benefiting from all the trade agreements made through the EU.

If we leave with no deal all those agreements will immediately lapse, thus losing us any advantages we have from the lower tariffs negotiated in those deals. This is what the 'no dealers' seem to forget. No deal does not mean business as usual with all the countries we export to.

As WwMK2 says "However, our businesses who export will have tariffs imposed on their products making them less competitive than other businesses who trade under various trade agreements. "

As for foreign investment, it dropped last year, though as part of a world downturn.

data.oecd.org/fdi/fdi-flows.htm

What is dear to our hearts is the price of food.

So much of our fresh produce is imported particularly in the winter. About 40% of the total of our food is imported.

Post Brexit a number of things will affect the price of our food.

Tariffs
The value of sterling
Border checks i.e. slowing the movement

So if we take the tariff on dairy there will be an average of 44% tariff, this translates to approx. 8% price rise.
Meat by 5%
Vegetables 4%

Sterling is unknown but of course if it should fall in value which is likely post Brexit judging by what has happened recently this will of course affect prices.

Border checks. It is clear from the lorry parks that delay is being built into the system. Businesses reckon that for each day if delay costs will rise by by £500|£850.

Maybe the only answer to the Irish border problem is, give N. Ireland back to the Irish

Gonegirl, we can't just ,give NI back to the Irish. It isn't in our 'gift'. It's not something we can just give away because we don't want it any more. The Northern Irish have got to want to rejoin Ireland and Ireland has to want it back. Both quite dubious propositions.

Where do people get these absurd simplistic notions from?

Liam Fox has already negotiated many trade deals with countries which have similar agreements with the EU; South Korea being the most recent. No deal is just a starting point and the majority of the world deals under WTO rules and they seem to cope.

Mrs May's so called deal was actually 'no deal' too because you cannot negotiate with the EU while still a member. The transition period, for which we are supposed to pay £39 billion, was just an extended period to talk about a deal. Do you honestly think, with the way the EU behaves, that it would be willing to negotiate a good deal with us! Both sides have had 3 years already and got nowhere. Good businesses producing quality goods, which the world wants, will weather the storm, others sadly may not.

Are you all buying British to support our country? Don't leave our farmers stranded. Freedom is priceless, the EU is toxic, ask Greece. Why does a trading block need a flag, an anthem, a currency, a parliament in two countries, unelected presidents - 5 of them, an army? ....... Because it is building an empire.

All the above is not project fear nor is it guess work. This is what will happen from 1 November.

I have to say that I voted remain but get fed up of people decrying Britain.

Crikey; thought the stuff about a EU army was fake news. When did that actually happen quizqueen?

qq I’m not sure that is quite correct.

As a member of the EU the U.K. has about 40 trade deals. This amounts to about 11% of the U.K. trade.

There are no deals yet signed but there has been some progress. There has been an agreed trade arrangement with Switzerland, but nothing yet signed. However the government was unable to offer clarity as to exactly what this agreement entailed.

South Africa has said it is close to signing but nothing formally agreed as yet.
Australia and New Zealand are looking at areas of mutual recognition, but no trade deals.
South Korea has also agreed to sign a continuity agreement post Brexit but nothing yet formally agreed.

kitty how can you interpret what is being outlined as decrying the U.K.?

No-one is 'decrying Britain' ... in case of No Deal, the UK will be left in the cold, begging for any deal, at any cost. This is how it works- and is not about Great Britain's character or courage- just the way it works.

I couldn't give a stuff about decrying Britain. The Union is on its knees. Life has moved on. We are not in an era when half the globe was coloured pink.

the majority of the world deals under WTO rules and they seem to cope

The majority of the world doesn't deal under WTO rules. You are being fed a lie.

The majority of the world is busy forming itself into trading blocs so as to escape from 'WTO rules'.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_bloc

From the article:

By 1997, more than 50% of all world commerce was conducted within regional trade blocs.

What is more, if we want to trade with countries in a trade bloc we will not get such advantageous terms as do the members of the bloc. 50%+ of commerce within regional trade blocs mean that we won't get advantageous terms...

And if we do try to join a trade bloc?

No country wants to let foreign firms gain domestic market share at the expense of local companies without getting something in return. Any country that wants to join a trading bloc must be prepared to make concessions. For example, in trading blocs that involve developed and developing countries, such as bilateral agreements between the U.S. or the EU and relatively poor Asian, Latin American or African countries, the latter may have to allow multinational corporations to enter their home markets, hurting the business of some local firms.

And if countries are not in a trade bloc they are busy making bilateral trade agreements with other countries. also to escape 'WTO rules'

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bilateral_free-trade_agreements

It’s time I referenced the information.

BBC

All the WTO agreements we have are as a Member of the EU - every single one of them will have to be renegotiated- started from scratch.

From the Guardian today- the reality:

A no-deal Brexit would be “commercial suicide” with tens of thousands of jobs already lost in the UK because of the political uncertainty, manufacturing representatives have said.

As Boris Johnson broke cover to launch his Conservative party leadership campaign, in which he repeated his pledge to leave the EU by 31 October, industry representatives were telling MPs that crashing out of the bloc was “economic vandalism”.

Seamus Nevin, the chief economist with Make UK, which represents some of the country’s largest manufacturers, said: “There is a direct link between politicians talking up the prospect of no deal and British firms losing customers overseas and British people losing jobs.

“A no-deal Brexit would be nothing short of commercial suicide.”

He told the House of Commons Brexit select committee that some businesses were already “downsizing or completely shutting down in the UK”. Some were very profitable and leaders in their sector, but were struggling because of the political uncertainty.

Nevin said he was aware of one company, which he could not name because of a confidentiality agreement, that was planning to quit Britain. “That will result in several thousand job losses,” he said adding that a no-deal Brexit “would be nothing short of an act of economic vandalism” and “undo 25 years of economic progress and consign a generation of highly skilled workers to the scrapheap”.

His assessment came in stark contrast to Johnson’s upbeat declaration that he would deliver Brexit and transform the UK into a powerhouse that would “go neck and neck with Germany” in manufacturing and technology.'

One of the reasons behind the Brexit divide IMO is that half the population have voted to strip certain rights from their fellow citizens: rights which many of us value hugely. The subsequent crowing about 'we won' and the lack of acknowledgement of the closeness of the result of this advisory referendum has made things worse. And then we have TM's 'red lines' and her pandering to ERG, along with her utter refusal to address any of the concerns of the people who didn't vote to leave. All of these have stoked further division.
Finally, the inability of leavers to articulate any concrete benefits to leaving the EU 3 years after the vote has done nothing to reassure anyone. By now, if some good, solid arguments for the benefits of leaving had been made, remainers would, I'm sure, be 'coming round' to the idea, but they are not. So if you think leaving with no deal will mean all discussion of Brexit will cease then think again.

It helps me to allay my Brexit anxiety to stock up on tinned chicken soup and tins of dog food.

After reading most of the posts so far, I do wonder why so many are speculating and indeed arguing (after a fashion) as to how we in the UK will manage post Brexit. Nothing you say will alter the outcome.
It's all out of our hands so why worry when worrying and talking about the what ifs and hows will not resolve anything?
Sit back, relax and deal with the result when it happens because you're getting nowhere fast by chatting about it now.

But I thought people had voted to take back control...?

Informing ourselves will mean that if in the event of a GE or (god forbid) another referendum or even lobbying our MPs means that we are sitting back like Emmas but taking active decisions about our future.

I have no intention of letting things be done to me, never have never will.

so why are you chatting about it G?

Ww2 - ditto, for sure.

And if there is another march- I'll be there too this time, for sure.

Let’s just stick our fingers in our ears and sing la la la shall we? Not sure why people bother to post don’t think about it , when they are obviously thinking about it.