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All bets are on!

(307 Posts)
whitewave Fri 01-May-15 09:58:37

Right I have had a look at the polls today and at the moment the Tories are likely to get more seats than the Labour by a margin of 9.
So Tories 276
Labour 267
Libs 26
UKIP 2
SNP 56
Green 1
Others 22

Given that a practical majority is 323, who do you think will be likely to be able to form a government and how will the coalition look?

My guess is if Labour steadfastly refuse to have anything to do with the SNP than the Tories will form a coalition of themselves plus libs and ukip which makes 276+26+2= 304 so they will need at least 19 more seats - not sure where these will come from though.

If however the SNP comply with Labour's manifesto (unlikely) than the next Government will be formed by a Labour coalition with a good working majority of Lab plus libs plus greens plus snp. So 267+26+1+56= 350.

However if the SNP can't comply with Labour than neither parties seem to be able to form a government so what then? Back to the drawing board?

I find this so interesting!!!! How sad am I?blush

J52 Fri 01-May-15 11:55:06

By the way, DH has just come back from Scotland and 'word on the street' seems to be that many who voted No in the referendum are now voting SNP.

Again, just saying! x

soontobe Fri 01-May-15 11:56:21

I think that the campaign has been boring. Very boring.
I think that they are going the way of the US, and keeping away from the random general public as much as possible.

gillybob Fri 01-May-15 12:02:14

I think you are right soontobe I think the funny awful Gordon Brown/Gillian Duffy "thing" was a wakeup call to all of them.

POGS Fri 01-May-15 12:10:04

Whitwave

I don't think such a major statement as Miliband has made was aimed at the Scottish vote only to be honest. How can it be, he has declared a promise to the whole of the UK.

We get a tad immersed in our own countries but Miliband made a declaration that was sent to the voter in all 4 countries of the UK .

This could well be his Nick Clegg on Tuition Fees moment if he does not do as he stated and I don't think he will try and run a Minority Government so I am of the opinion he will do a deal with the SNP and show a very thick skin.

For what it's worth I dislike supply and confidence tactics, it is nothing more than blackmail , you scratch my back I will scratch yours.

Maggiemaybe Fri 01-May-15 12:12:00

I've really enjoyed the campaign this time. And I would be staying up most of next Thursday night if I hadn't booked a couple of nights away without checking the date. I don't think it'll be the same perched on the edge of a hotel bed watching the TV with the volume down!

GillT57 Fri 01-May-15 12:14:17

Yes, the Gordon Brown episode is considered to be the turning point, sadly what it has meant is rather sanitised electioneering with all the candidates speaking to a selected audience, with no opportunity for challenge by member of the public i.e. the voters. I really dont need to see any of them being applauded by the party faithful at yet another 'hustings'. Last night, the audience did try very hard to get them ( all 3 of them) to answer the questions asked, but with little success. I am also getting sick and tired of Nicola Sturgeon, she is not a candidate for The House of Commons.

POGS Fri 01-May-15 12:23:49

I thought the audience last night was the best so far, certainly clued up.

TerriBull Fri 01-May-15 12:31:53

I agree POGS. I do wonder if Liam Byrne would still have written the "we have no money left" note if he know how it was to be resurrected 5 years on in such a damning way!

jo1book Fri 01-May-15 12:55:32

The other view of of course that they tory lead will hearten those who like to be on the winning side and demoralise the other parties. Don't forget - John Major's win against poll predictions and the fact that when asked, labour supports will say and the tories will refuse to comment but know how they will vote. Being of a conservative nature, no doubt!

Anniebach Fri 01-May-15 12:57:13

whitewash, yes I live in Wales , I have worked / slogged on 14 elections and always quite easy to see which way the wind is blowing apart from 1964. This time is a tornado compared to the previous ones. Never have I encountered such open racism from England voters and a little in Wales too.

Wales has always been strong labour , as Scotland use to be. Plaid Cymru have three seats in Parliment and they will not support the Tories - if they still have three seats next Friday !

TerriBull Fri 01-May-15 13:23:45

Too much focus on Milliband's slight trip last night, as if it's some sort of omen for the outcome. Heavens it wasn't in the recent "Madonna" falling off stage league!

janerowena Fri 01-May-15 13:36:16

I haven't found this election at all boring. I think if anything it's more interesting than usual!

I do Yougov surveys, and they have been flying in thick and fast, presumably all of the parties have been commissioning them. They must hate me, because I am refusing to commit. Having read Annie's post, I am tempted to vote for whichever party is the least racist, to try to balance things out a bit.

POGS Fri 01-May-15 13:49:53

jo1book

I don't think it's racism on the part of the English but I do think the fact England is the only country in the UK to not be allowed to speak for itself has certainly come home to roost at this election.

Why is it the likes of the SNP are hailed as heroes by some because they are looking after their fellow nationals, the clue is in their name with the simple word 'National'. Plaid Cymru is the Party of Wales again a nationalist party both obviously wanting more than devolution, they want Independence. Yet if an English person raises such issues or asks why they cannot be allowed to do as the other nationalist parties they are subject to abuse and that's when things get heated up because the playing field is not level.

Some are making it perfectly clear that they detest the Conservative party and anybody who votes for them. That's up to the individual to say what they like, although I find it at odds with the perception the Conservatives are the so called Nasty Party, irony or what.

Hatred of the conservatives certainly seems to be the common denominator for a lot of those who are supporters of Labour, Greens, Plaid Cymru and the SNP. Thank goodness they are in the minority. I think this is another reason why this election is being viewed openly as being aggressive, undemocratic and being seen by those English voters who like to fight with the view that if your party looses at least be magnanimous in defeat as I certainly will be if the party I vote for looses.

I hate, I hate the language of those who say 'If we gang up together we can lock our opposition out , for good'. I use the word not in a personal attack on those who say it but the undemocratic message it means and it doesn't sit well for many voters IMHO.

durhamjen Fri 01-May-15 13:58:59

may2015.com/featured/election-2015-odds-miliband-is-a-5941-favourite-to-become-pm-despite-recent-polls/

POGS Fri 01-May-15 14:06:58

Good for him.

He can only do it with the backing of the SNP so do you think he will try running a minority government or quickly rubbish his own declaration of No Coalition, No Supply and Confidence, No dealing with the SNP?

Anniebach Fri 01-May-15 14:10:17

If you were Milliband what would you say when asked about working with the SNP? you have forty one MP's fighting to hold their seats in Scotland , all aware their chances of retaining their seats is grim. Would you want a leader to say tough luck , your loss, as long as I get into No 10 ?

durhamjen Fri 01-May-15 14:11:01

The Guardian poll tracker shows you all the other parties involved.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/poll-tracker

The SNP has quadrupled its membership since Cameron backtracked on his promises after the referendum. Scotland do not trust him. I heard yesterday that the SNP are on track to win every seat in Scotland.

All Miliband has said is that he is not going to do a deal with the SNP. It means he can try to get what he wants through parliament, and it's up to the SNP whether they support him or not on any vote. It's up to them whether they let the Tories in or not. I thought he'd shot himself in the foot when I first heard him say that, but now I think it's quite clever, if he is chosen to be PM.

One thing I find interesting is the problem of Trident. Labour says it will keep Trident, as do the Tories. Libdems say Trident light. SNP say they will not back Labour on Trident, but the Tories say they will not. Does that make any sense to you?

jo1book Fri 01-May-15 14:18:27

POGS I believe that any party in opposition turns nasty because it is fighting against a certain strength the ruling party has, in that it is known. Miliband is a unknown factor and his supporters feel the need to rally to his cause.
I think you are right about the hate message from the Nats. We are all stronger to-gether and your average voter is getting fed up with them.

Remember Martin Luther King; We live together as brothers or we die together as fools.

P.s. I didn't see the leader's discussion last night. What did Miliband do? Break out into "I'm a virgin"? Do tell.

durhamjen Fri 01-May-15 14:22:00

I'm with the SNP about this. I hate what the Tories have done to the poor and dispossessed in our society. I hate them even more because they pretend otherwise.

Anniebach Fri 01-May-15 14:29:58

With you durhamjen

POGS Fri 01-May-15 14:47:25

jo1book

I don't see Miliband as an unknown factor at all. He was well established in the Labour Government and has been given more media coverage than any other opposition leader I have ever known. Mainly due to the fact politics is becoming more popular with voters.

As for not watching Question Time last night and asking 'What did he do, do tell'. I will repeat he said categorically Labour will not go into coalition with the SNP, Labour will not go into a Supply and Confidence deal with the SNP, Labour will do no deals with the SNP.

Anniebach

You are missing the point. Miliband , Cameron and Clegg are not in the position of being able to speak to just one nation to gain votes, as you imply. Even Miliband would know that by declaring his guarantee that he will do no deals with the SNP the voters in Wales, England and N. Ireland will expect him to keep to his word. Hence as I said it could be the electorate will view any U Turn as his Nick Clegg Tuition Fee moment, you know where that has left him.

POGS Fri 01-May-15 14:53:04

DJ

So you believe Miliband and Labour will try running a Minority Government then?

jo1book Fri 01-May-15 14:56:51

POGS On the basis that over half the Scots did not vote for Ms Krankie, would they not be better giving a tactical vote to Labour or Conservative.

durhamjen Fri 01-May-15 14:59:16

Yes, POGS.
SNP have said they will not support the Tories. The Tories will not be in a position to form a government, because there will always be a vote of no confidence by the opposition. The Libdems are unlikely to go in coalition with the Tories again, and if they do, there will not be enough MPs to get the queen's speech passed.
The SNP are not going to go against the Labour queen's speech because if they do they will let the Tories in. Clever of Miliband, I think.
If Miliband keeps Trident out of the queen's speech, he will be able to form a government.

durhamjen Fri 01-May-15 15:01:35

Five years ago, the Tories promised no top down reorganisation of the NHS, and look what they did as soon as they got in.
No Tory can have the moral high ground on election promises.