Five events that could change the shape of British politics in 2016.

Well EU vote for sure if the vote is to get out. If stay in then as usual, although not sure what those wanting to leave will do. Will UKIP disband?

Presumably DC will see the year out? Only I rather thought he intended to stay until after the EU vote

JC will need to get about 35% in May elections to shut his critics up. If he is forced to resign I suspect that the Labour Party may well try to change the leadership rules. Interesting times.

Trident vote - isn't that a foregone conclusion?

US elections - no way will Trump get it. Americans have peculiar ideas - like gun law. But surely they are not that daft?

I will give some thought to anything else - feeling lazy at moment!

Sorry, I realised I forgot to list the five.
1. The Eu referendum
2. The May elections
3. MPs vote on Trident
4. US election
5. Heathrow decision.

I am surprised the author does not list the junior doctor's strike.

Whitewave, if other party MPs refuse to go along with pairing, the Trident vote might not be cut and dried. Cameron has said he will give a free vote on it. I wonder if he will change his mind if pairing stops.

I wondered why the Heathrow decision was so important, but it's all to do with the May elections. Goldsmith has said he will resign from the Tory party if Cameron agrees to another runway at Heathrow. In which case he cannot be Tory mayor of London. It's also to do with Boris and his opposition to the third runway.

I agree about Trump. I'm surprised he's still walking, the number of times he's shot himself in the foot.

I would like to think that Trump won't win, but sadly (or maybe it's more accurate to say "frighteningly") a LOT of Americans I know are going on and on about him making the country great again. And there's a lot of positive feedback on FB about him. I'd like to think there's at least a fairly large group of Americans that are intelligent enough to know better, but I don't think it's wise to discount it.

EU referendum and US elections yes, the rest, no.

It will not be the first time a party leader and party has stood or fallen on the May local elections. It hasn't been game changing in the past and isn't going to be in 2016. I think a lot of the drama over Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, is grossly overblown. His situation is not unique. The main problem with all our political parties is the dearth of credible leaders. I am sure the reason Jeremy Corbyn got in was because of the complete lack of charisma or obvious leadership credentials in any of the other contenders for the job.

Trident will be turbulent but not game changing, Remember the cancellation of the TSR2 by Jum Callaghan in 1965? A far more catstrophic decision, but no game changer. ditto expansion at Heathrow. Just the ordinary contentious issues that will probably include resignations that governments have to make decisions about, but not game changers. I think that would also apply to the junior doctor's strike that you mention Durhamjen

What would I add? The political situation in the arab world, not just the middle east, A catastrophe in Syria, especially if the US and Russia are either driven apart as a result or start pulling very firmly together, could be a real game changer, likewise Libya

Good post, M0nica, I agree with what you say.

Thank you.

The middle east will not be a game changer in this country's politics because we have already had a vote on it, and know where the parties stand.

I wonder if the Saudi executions will make anybody wish they had voted differently.

www.theguardian.com/law/2016/jan/02/cameron-threat-to-leave-eu-a-security-risk

Keir Starmer thinks that even threatening to leave the EU is a security risk to the UK.

I think we should leave the eu managed before can do it again Britian will never be the same again sorry to say I love my country but just look around do you think Britian is like it was when we were young

When we were young we had an Empire and we were living off other countries riches, that was the difference. Older people seem to forget the world has changed and we can never go back to those times. We have to work and trade on different terms.

I agree with suggestions although I don't think Trump will get in. Trident and EU will affect Scotland and we may have another referendum there.
I would add:-
The teacher recruitment crisis - when schools start closing for days due to this the public might start taking notice.
Funding in schools and other services is also becoming critical

Just read the Kier Starmer piece. At least when we leave the EU we'll be able to kick the scum out.

Really? Which scum is that?

You obviously did not read his other piece about criminals and terrorists being pleased if there are no cross-border controls as it would take longer.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/02/eu-referendum-uk-exit-bad-for-crime-fighting

Older people seem to forget the world has changed and we can never go back to those times. Which older people are these and where do you meet them? I have never come across older people who think like this.

For most of us the Empire disappeared when we were 20 or younger and we have spent our whole working lives in a world where we have worked and traded on a worldwide basis.

There seem to be an awful lot of worn-out cliches appearing on Gransnet at present.

The scum who commit horrendous crimes in other countries and then swan into the UK and carry on as normal. And then let's not forget those that disagree with our way of life and want to blow us up.
As it stands there is nothing we can do about this scum, and I will use that word because that's what they are. But hopefully we do leave the EU and it's aurevior, Bon voyage to the lot of them.

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Reading some of these posts I am depressingly reminded of the pub bore I heard in the early 1970s, when the future of the old Cunard liners was a topic: "What they wanna do, they wanna fill the Queen Elizabeth with nxxxxxs and tow her out to sea, and the Navy can use her for gunnery practice."

Or are we blessed with satirists today?

Alf Garnett was satire, grumppa, but I don't think there's any of that on this thread.

Oh, Hidge your post did make me laugh

You don't sound very happy.

How many stories have we read concerning non british people who have committed terrible crimes in this country, gone to prison, been released and then can't be deported because of 'human rights'
The scum who went to prison for rape and then on release bought a cat to show his commitment to family life springs to mind.

The Middle East most emphatically could be a major political game changer in the Uk in 2016.

The Middle East is in melt down. Syria is already a failed state. Iraq ia teetering on the edge, so is Afghanistan,a lthough not in the Middle East, it is part of the problem. Lebanon is poised on a knife edge, Libya, Somalia, Yemen and Egypt are all disfunctional states. There are IS/Taliban lookalike groups (Al Shabab, Boku Haram) springing up in all these countries and else where in in neighbouring African states. Security in these countries is negligible and terrorists move in and out of them at will. Iran is large, expansionist and Shia not Sunni.

It is not impossible to see a scenario where we have countries collapsing like dominos in the region with a refugee problem that makes the 2015 Syrian exodus look like a storm in a teacup. There could also be a big falling out between the USA and Russia, with the implications for major hostilities or a great coming together after a joint and very successful operation in the Region.

Do you really think events like this will not be a political game changer in the UK because the British Parliament has had a vote on the subject of bombing IS in Syria?

Petra you say that if we leave the EU we can say au revoir to all the scum - how does that work?

Are you mixing up the EU with the European Court of Human Rights?

Please remind me of the cat story.

Good grief Hidge, I can well believe you have not gone into Birmingham for years. If you had, you would have found the smart, cosmopolitan city that I see when I visit, the excellent shops, a John Lewis to die for great restaurants, the museum, the theatres, Symphony Hall-culture at its best- some stunning buildings, Think Tank, the Botanical Gardens and great friendly people. What you describe could have come out of the mouth of Alf Garnett, not a description of 21st century Birmingham.