Confused. Projected uk death rate due to Coronavirus.

Are you saying GPS are making lists of people who should be left at home to take their chances? I’m picturing a busy GP going through all her patients and putting them into two piles.

This should happen anyway. Its best practice. Someone who is dying anyway at home and who wouldnt have treatment if admitted to hospital (because they dont want it or because theyre too frail to survive it), should already have a note on the system telling paramedics not to admit them (only for Drs to say, nothing can be done send them home)

It SHOULD already be in place. But it isnt always. GPs are trying to plug those gaps now

Unplanned death is a Coroner's court term.

The difference between someone being registered as a planned or unplanned death can be down to things like whether they have been seen by a doctor and made officially palliative or not.

There seems to be some question now about the information given to Governments by some experts and that such drastic measures may indeed be counter productive.
I don't know if deaths are registered as being caused by the virus when the person died with it and not from it. There are discrepancies as others have pointed out.

Pike has now said his 5700 figure is wrong - it will be higher

I don't know if deaths are registered as being caused by the virus when the person died with it and not from it

There are always discrepancies from one coroners area to another, and between doctors in the same area.

Some may always list Covid as a secondary cause if the person was +ive

Some would not list Covid +ive if there was certainty that the death was caused by something else and not speeded up by Covid.

We have seen this challenged before with MRSA where families whose relatives had MRSA wanted it listed as a cause of death when the Drs or Coroners disagreed that the MRSA status contributed to the deaths.

This is a crude example:
You test Civid +ive and die in a car crash on your way home from the drive thru screening.

If the Covid made you suddenly short of breath on the drive home, which may have caused you to crash, covid may be listed as secondary. Or it may not.

If another driver caused the crash, your covid status probably wont be on your death certificate.

If you survived the crash with a bad injury, and the covid made you unable to survive the treatment for that, it would definitely be on your death certificate.

If you survived the crash but were told that you will die without further surgery, and you decline that surgery and opt for palliative care only. Your death wont be registered as unplanned at all.

But whatever a coroner would say, the figures we have are clear in two regards - it’s everyone who dies in hospital AND has tested positive. The figures do not take into account the difference between dying with and dying from.

There will also be people who tested positive for covid IN hospital, and then went home to die.

This is happening in some countries and not in others.

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/29/care-homes-refusing-to-take-in-patients-discharged-nhs-hospitals-coronavirus-risk?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3_9GO0w_NHeiXdRY_-uO5MTjs_xovuecbvzQKM558lN0cEYpijqVGOLQs#Echobox=1585474272
^ this will HUGELY inflate our hospital death numbers

This link might work better:
www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/29/care-homes-refusing-to-take-in-patients-discharged-nhs-hospitals-coronavirus-risk

As I say this would "artificially" hike up our hospital death numbers

Isn't the expression expected or unexpected death?

Surely planned death can only refer to suicide or murder?

It may be granny I may have interchanged them x

Surely planned death can only refer to suicide or murder?
or a visit to Switzerland
Not possible at the moment.

Germany are now "signing off" people as immune when we dont know enough about cv19 immunity yet. So if those people catch pneumonia, they wont necessarily be retested.

Some other common viruses only give you days/weeks of immunity after catching them before the immunity wears off. So certifying people as immune is premature. And will further deflate their numbers

Not only that but some viruses leave silent damage or "flair up" again.

Putting people on a "not covid, immune!" List doesnt allow for recording of these cases

Notanan do you mean that people who’ve had the virus could be re-infected themselves, or that they could still have the virus and infect others, or both?
And where does that leave hospital staff who are tested and given the green light to go back to work?
Just to be clear, I’m not having a go or anything (having recently been accused of such behaviour on another thread), I’m genuinely wondering.

We know that about other viruses
We dont know enough about CV19 to be reassured by having had it and being momentarily "immune"

E.g. shingles after chickenpox (and you can get chicken pox more than once too), norovirus immunity only lasting 2 weeks etc

Yes peoppe with "immunity" can still transmit and shed. We know this about other viruses.

I think that all CV immunity testing can offer at this point is false senses of security

People

For example with some viruses, a pregnant mothers immunity doesnt necessarily protect their unborn from virus damage. It depends on how/when the body recognises the virus

janeainsworth from this afternoon's press briefing, I understood them to say because it is a new virus, it's unclear how long immunity takes to develop or lasts. Once fever has subsided they are thought not to be infectious though the cough can last some weeks. Even someone who is immune can pick up viral load on their hands for example and infect someone else. As far as hospital staff are concerned, because they wear protective gear and use barrier nursing techniques they will be okay as long as they have been deemed fit to be at work.

Sorry, crossed posts.

TB: some people develop lasting immunity others don't (not a virus I know)

They don't KNOW that healthworkers are okay to come back when "immune". Some viruses and infections weaken you, especially respiratory ones, and make you more susceptable to reinfection or other infections.

We just do not know yet