Confused. Projected uk death rate due to Coronavirus.

Is it really true that that is what Germany does? Has anyone got a link ( with no paywall)? It’s number of deaths has gone up quite a lot

Deaths in Italy are 900 per day. But they count those who die at home and in nursing homes who are tested. In the U.K. we are only testing those who die in hospital. So maybe our figure should be higher?

Not quite accurate. Recently a 35-year old mother died at home in London after being told by medics she was not a priority. She was tested counted posthumously I assure you.

Callistemon that is what I said.

I'm not sure, M0nica I think we do mean slightly different things.

Some underlying conditions may not make any difference to the outcome but if Germany records a death as being due to the underlying condition and not COVID19, that would distort the figures.

Ah that is a matter of registration. I was replying to an individual who couldn't understand why underlying conditions that didn't interfere with her normal life, could be a problem if she got corona virus.

Our official figures only include deaths in hospital.
Has anyone verified the statement about Germany yet? Their figures are going up more now.

Suzie there's an article in the New York Times (?) that tries to explain it. I've been trying to share it, without succcess.

The gist of it is that Germans have taken a more robust stance in terms of identifying and tracking, and chalking deaths up to conditions other than CV.

Their rate of death due to CV is around 0.72%.

Germany have taken the "spanish flu" route and deflated their official numbers. Italy was villified but Italy went the other way with their counting.

Britain hasnt inflated or deflated their numbers so lies somewhere in the middle and is recording both Covid and comorbidities when it comes to deaths.

Some other countries are doing the same and harsh as it is, are calculating the number of people who would likely have died in the next 18 months of any respiratory disease or infection were covid not here, and using that in their "best case scenario" projections for covid

A lot of the articles about the German model are in Italian have heard about them from Italian friends.

You say Germany is ‘cheating’? They are accepting patients from Italy to help put.

Out

not thanks for replying. Sorry if I hadn’t made it clear but I have been talking about number of deaths. The death rates are very flawed aren’t they as they depend entirely on the type of testing regime each country has in place. On worldometers I’ve been looking at deaths per million of the population but I know that’s not perfect either. But I still haven’t seen anything authoritative that says Germany is reporting differently. I accept that no country’s figures will be perfect - that’s not possible of course.

The really sensible thing in terms of future learning is obviously to record the COVID test result and any of the conditions that make someone vulnerable.These figures can then be crunched later and may be useful for example in prioritising being vaccinated when the vaccine is available

It's not "cheating"
It's that one set of numbers arent necessarily comparible to another set of numbers IYKWIM.

You first have to make sure you are comparing like for like.

Its about the way its recorded, and if its recorded whether its recorded as primary or secondary cause etc.

Its not "cheating" its about understanding the numbers

E.g. one country may say, lets not admit dying people from nursing homes who already have an advanced care plan. As we wont be treating them in ITU and its kinder to die at home than in an isolation ward. They are put under palliative care. Their death is not registered as an unplanned death. So no tests run etc.

Another country admits all suspected covid cases in an attempt to contain it. All are tested. All get registered as "unplanned deaths"

Neither way is wrong or cheating.
Both have valid rationalles.
Different numbers.

Once palliative care is involved, so long as theres no safeguarding concerns etc. A death wont go to coroners court or be recorded as an "unplanned" covid death.

Some people would never survive ventillation. UK is still admitting these people then trying to get them back home.

Now GPs are urgently trying to register everyone who shouldnt be admitted at all. Which will change our numbers again

If we tested everyone there would be +ive people who are dying of other causes. Some countries are cotaining them all on same covid wards. UK is trying not to.

Etc

What on earth is an ‘unplanned’ covid death? Are there planned covid deaths then?

Are you saying GPS are making lists of people who should be left at home to take their chances? I’m picturing a busy GP going through all her patients and putting them into two piles.

There is a very good article in The Spectator this week, by John Lee (a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist) explaining the problems with what the mainstream media publishes about covid numbers and why it is easy to be confused.

He reckons the number of infections is vastly under-estimated, that the number of deaths is vastly over-estimated, and that the time scale of the disease matters.

This is his concluding paragraph:
The UK and other governments have no control over how their data is reported, but they can minimise the potential for misinterpretation by making absolutely clear what its figures are, and what they are not. After this episode is over, there is a clear need for an internationally coordinated update of how deaths are attributed and recorded, to enable us to better understand what is happening more clearly, when we need to.

With reference to notanan's recent post:

John Lee discusses the difference between dying with covid19 and dying due to it.

52bright
I agree with you, however the deaths are counted, and it does seem that different countries are using slightly different ways to count, nonetheless the projected numbers are frightening.

What on earth is an ‘unplanned’ covid death? Are there planned covid deaths then?

Its about how deaths are registered and whether they go through the coroner etc.

Its a technical term and is how it happens regardless of covid.

Yes people who are CV+ive may well be registered as a "planned" death: they might have already been under paliative care before catching CV!

What on earth is an ‘unplanned’ covid death

Guessing here but I suspect it refers to people who would not have been expected to die with covid let alone due to it but do die nonetheless. Surprising victims.

These are different people from those who are definitely at risk of dying with the disease because they already have health issues that make them vulnerable to further infection and more likely, therefore, to die. Less surprising victims.

I think it would be silly to take literally phrases such as "unplanned" and "planned" in this scenario.