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Confused. Projected uk death rate due to Coronavirus.

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52bright Sat 28-Mar-20 17:29:09

Good evening all. We need all the positive posts we can get in these difficult times so first an apology because this is not really a positive thread. My question though is this. Why in tonight's bulletin were we we told that it would be a good outcome for the uk if death figures for Coronavirus were kept below 20000. The whole world's death rate on the world update site is approx. 29000 so why are we as one relatively small area of the world projecting a death rate of 20000. Maybe this is managing expectations, giving us a worst case scenario number of death cases so that if it rises to say 15000 we will consider that our government has done well. The death rate in Germany is far lower per million of population than here. They say this is because of more organised testing which means those who display no symtoms but who have the disease are quickly isolated. I have no idea but 20000 projected deaths here when the world amount at the moment is about 29000 seems very frightening. Stay in and keep safe everyone flowers

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janeainsworth Sun 29-Mar-20 21:21:13

Thanks notanan & grannylaine

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notanan2 Sun 29-Mar-20 21:31:58

It's one of the considerations that goes into public health planning and vaccines: some vaccines are better than others.

Not all "immunities" are equal

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GrannieIggle Sun 29-Mar-20 21:54:17

The Times figure looks more realistic than 20,000+.

At the moment, they're trying to keep people indoors and it doesn't seem to be working so well in too many cases. So are they putting the frighteners on?

They've also got to find a way to justify extending the lockdown.

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suziewoozie Sun 29-Mar-20 22:36:50

Grannie I posted earlier that the author of the figures reported in the Times has changed his mind and now says they are too low.Thats not to say of course that 20000 is the alternative - we’ll have a better idea in 2-3 weeks.

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suziewoozie Sun 29-Mar-20 22:40:50

Here it is - you can see from the headline despite the paywall. He’s also put it on his Twitter
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-scientist-who-predicted-5-700-deaths-now-says-final-toll-will-be-much-higher-k07xpgcvp

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maddyone Sun 29-Mar-20 23:52:16

Yes, it’s early days yet. I also think we’ll get a better picture as the weeks go by. Even next week will give us a better picture. It certainly appears to me that twenty thousand is more realistic than five thousand. What horrible news this is.

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suziewoozie Mon 30-Mar-20 18:46:39

Deaths down for two days in a row - too early to get overly optimistic but...

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Whitewavemark2 Mon 30-Mar-20 19:15:34

Chinese medics have arrived to give assistance ?

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maddyone Mon 30-Mar-20 19:30:41

Yes, it is too early but fingers crossed suzie

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maddyone Mon 30-Mar-20 19:31:14

That’s good news Whitewave.

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