Pandemic panic

You are right sodapop. Many community workers have no choice, and they are often the ones so called "self employed" on zero hours contracts.

My mother aged 95 is totally dependent on 2 carers 4 times a day as she can do nothing for herself. I am very worried because I cannot see that there is any real contingency plan in place for vulnerable people in the community, or for that matter in care homes.

Healthcare professionals must be bracing themselves for the onslaught and I hope they get a medal when all this is over. They are so important at times like this and we really owe them our lives. I was disgusted to hear there were not enough face masks for them as I think face masks should be reserved for them only.

I think that we are out of the containment phase too, but as they only announced their plan on Tuesday either spinning out phase one or want to delay the next phase as it means stepping up actions. The government do seem to be slow at taking what seems to be sensible steps.

There should be enough face masks to go around. They will be useful if someone is looking after an infected person at home, which is looking likely. This epidemic has been known about for 2 months and forecast forever. Even Trump said they had 40 million masks and had ordered 35 million per month.

I went out this afternoon and did my bit of strategic shopping. We are in France at the moment, where there is no run on even loo paper or pasta, plenty of that, but I bought a six pack of kitchen towel, which I use in preference to paper tissues, 2 bottles of bleach instead of the one I planned to buy and two packets of medicated wipes, claimed to be effective for viruses like Corvid-19 (not sure I believe that). Medicated wipes, including the brand I bought seemed to be selling well, but otherwise the store looked as normal. DH has said that when we when we get home we must buy a couple of packs of cuppasoups, just in case. But as I said, carefully thought out strategic shopping, not hoarding (grin)

A scarf or anything wrapped round the face is as good as a mask.

I am just reading an article in this week's Economist. The first comment that leaps out is:

"Low case numbers, though, should not be taken to signify successful containment; they are often a measure of ignorance."

It then goes on to describe what has happened in the USA.

“Test and you shall find,” says Gabriel Leung of the University of Hong Kong, who was also on the WHO team. “You either test and find it early, and do something about it, or the body bags are going to pile up", he adds

This is not happening in the USA. Their private healthcare system is a nudge in the direction of not saying anything and not having to pay for the test.

In a population without measures in place to control such chains, a single undiagnosed case can, in principle, give rise to more than 3,000 cases six weeks later. On March 4th, while Mr Trump blamed his predecessor, Barack Obama, for the CDC’s problems, Andrew Cuomo, the governor of New York, revealed he had asked 1,000 people in Westchester, where the infected lawyer lives, to isolate themselves.

The article then contrasts this with South Korea where:

... the government is being forthright and formidably transparent, allowing Koreans to trace their possible brushes with the disease. As well as briefing the press thoroughly twice a day, and texting reporters details of every death, the government puts online a detailed record of each new patient’s movements over previous days and weeks, allowing people to choose to shun the places they visited. The risk of illicit activity being thus uncovered—at least one extramarital affair may have been—gives people an extra incentive to avoid exposure to a disease which, in most of the infected, results in only mild symptoms.

Where do we stand by comparison I wonder.

Now that two baggage handlers at Heathrow have tested positive there are concerns they may have infected travellers luggage. The virus could last up to three days apparently which is longer than I heard before. There really is no hope of containing this disease. We just have to be scrupulously clean and careful.

We have 160+ people diagnosed wth Coronavirus. As a miniscule percentage of a population of over 60 million, I don't think it's worth getting hysterical - there are enough people doing that.
Two elderly people with underlying health issues have died - which is obviously sad, but people die every year from flu.
Half the people who contracted the virus are now better (BBC main news last night) so this would appear to be saying that around 80 people actively have the virus. I still can't see anything to get worked up about but no doubt someone will tell me I should. Just glad we are an island with free access to medical care - that must put us all in a strong position.

Yes it is a minuscule percentage of the population but it is the rate the virus is spreading that gives concern. People are carrying it who show no symptoms or have mild symptoms. Where will we be in three weeks or three months? At the moment it isn't everywhere but it could be anywhere.

How long does it last, if you get it? The feeling ill bit, I mean.

I've looked online and can't find any info anywhere.

Twickenham Stadium was full to the brim with many people having travelled a long way, by public transport, etc, and shouting and singing in very close proximity and no hand washing either. Wise?

They all had to use hand gel on the way in.

jura2 it was reported on earlier that there were antibacterial gel stations at all entrances, as well as inside the stadium. Extra soap and gel in all lavatories.

Yesterday it was 163 cases in the UK and today 206.

Gagajo how long is a piece of string? Some people get mild symptoms and some become very ill over weeks and die. It depends on your immune system and your age.

Crossed posts Callistemon

They showed people on TV having to use the hand gel on the way in.

Should normal life grind to a halt?
France has banned gatherings of fewer than 5,000 people, as if 4,999 is some magic number where the virus is not transmitted.

According to experts children are highly unlikely to get it extremely rare in under 20s
In U.K.
21,460 tested
21, 254 negative
2 deaths of ill people one 75 one early 80 s
Keep it in perspective if there’s wasnt almost hourly updates and bulletins on all media we wouldn’t be in this pickle

If you are elderly and have a compromised immune system keep your self isolated if that’s what you feel is right for you everyone else just wash your hands more and carry on carrying on

We have 160+ people diagnosed wth Coronavirus. As a miniscule percentage of a population of over 60 million, I don't think it's worth getting hysterical - there are enough people doing that.

I don't think that people are being hysterical. The opinion of the experts is this is following the normal path of an epidemic. It will spread further and faster in the next phase as we cannot track all the contacts of those who have it.

Plans are now for us entering the "controlled phase" and a lot of keeping the numbers down is now up to people acting sensibly and as they have been directed. Sadly this is the phase where the numbers could well escalate. The hope is to keep them as low as possible - although it unlikely to be as low as they have been - until the better weather when the transmission is less.

These are the phases as described by the WHO. It may help to understand why the numbers are low in the early stages.

Phase 1: A virus circulates among animals but with no cases reported of infections in humans.

Phase 2: An animal flu virus is known to have caused infection in humans, and therefore considered a potential pandemic threat.

Phase 3: An animal or human-animal flu virus has caused sporadic cases or small outbreaks in humans, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission that is sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks.

Phase 4: Human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal flu virus that is able to cause community-level outbreaks. Significant increase in risk of a pandemic. The focus of this phase is to contain the spread of the virus.

Countries would be asked to take action such as issuing travel advice. Countries affected by the disease should also consider deploying a pandemic vaccine, and limiting non-essential movement of people from containment areas.

Phase 5: Human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one region. Strong signal that pandemic is imminent. Countries are required to advise people with respiratory illnesses to stay home. Classes should be suspended and work patterns modified.

Phase 6: Pandemic phase, with human-to-human spread of virus in at least two countries in the same geographic region and extending to at least one other country outside the region. Implementation of contingency plans for health systems at all levels.

This is a bit complicated but I will try and explain in simple language about T cells, produced by the thymus. Babies have a large thymus and have a large but finite supply of T cells. These are the main defenders, they adapt to defend and are gradually altered to defend against various ailments. They get used up and by 60 are all used, there are no naive (or novel) unused T cells left

This explains why the virus will hit over 60s hard, there is no active defense, maybe some weak T cells but nothing much. Babies have so many that they are able to knock covid on the head

The thymus shrinks and deteriorates and that explains why we get cancers, inflammations and frailty. We have no active means to defend our bodies against covid. Veg like brassicas and alliums, they will have helped the thymus all along. Alcohol and smoking will not

Avoidance is absolutely key.

I read an article a while back that said older people that exercise a lot, especially those who cycle, have a thymus gland that doesn't shrink to the same extent. Alas, I've never been able to ride a bike, or swim or jog.

my food today is pretty well my normal food and has been similar for over 30 years. I eat from 7 to 12 veg a day but cannot possibly eat that amount as normal steamed or raw veg, so I make soups and I juice some veg. I am not a saint with my food by any means but I am saintly with my veg. My juice later will be made for 2 days, I have a vertical slow juicer and have a stack of kale, some lemon, some celery and some carrots today.

re exercise, too much exercise can damage the immune system, a little is good. Never exercise while having a virus of any type.

I think if people knew the basics of what is actually the immune system then they would not worry about younger people, especially children. The immune system is very complicated and we can support it but we cannot make a new immune system, like we had when we were children

I heard an interesting interview on Radio 4 this weekend, suggesting that the concept of 'exercise' didn't really exist before the early middle ages. Before that everyone's life was a constant round of activity as every basic of life required physical exercise so there was no need for 'exercise' per se, so no one lnew anything about it

His conclusions were that we should aim to leave lives that include steady and continuous exercise that is much better for us than periods of intensive exercise followed by hours of inactivity.

I made the juice and added a raw beetroot, drank half and am storing the other half for tomorrow or maybe this afternoon. I have washed up and fed the worms in my hotbin with delicious food for compost. Its all about what we can do to support ourselves, our own bodies.

Today the way out of here is wet and muddy so I will sit on my indoor cycle and do a bit while watching something nice on tv. I will read, knit and write out my plans for my new garden veg rotations and preps for seed sowing. I won`t be out and about in supermarkets or pubs, no need and certainly no panic here

Today Italy has extended its lockdown in an effort to contain. Many people here were infected in Italy yet travel has been actively encouraged. When is the government going to be proactive? Apparently they are going to consider banning the over 70s from large events tomorrow, according to an article in the Guardian. All seems too little too late.