Second waves - dealing with the virus part 2 ??

Interesting article by emeritus professor Hugh Pennington on why there won't be a second wave. Basically it's because Covid 19 isn't flu and only flu has second waves. What we might have, as Germany has had, is another outbreak. This can be tackled, as ever, by test and trace and lockdown of potential cases. He says that, like Sars, the virus will weaken and possibly even die out by Christmas. Interesting to read this. He's a highly regarded international expert. Fingers crossed he's right.

Relative size would have a lot to do with it, kefalonia has a similar area and population to Anglesey here in Wales but of course we couldn’t do a lock down of one county without upsetting Westminster, Eire and EU, although logistically it would have been simple!

Locking down islands is much easier.

Are you thinking of relative size, Calli? Because the UK is an island, but it hasn't done us much good. But we didn't lock down our borders like other islands did.

I suspect the customary meticulous hygiene and the masks played a big part in Japan.

I wouldn’t mind betting the Japanese are healthier than many Europeans, especially in terms of their weight.

I’m sure that’s one of the reason why our death toll is relatively high, and of course so many Americans are huge which wouldn’t help their chances of survival from the virus.

Japan has an ageing population, so I guess it would have been thought that the death rate would be higher. However, when I thought about it, there's a reason life expectancy in Japan is high. Maybe older people in Japan are healthier than in Europe. Just a guess - I have no evidence at all to back it up.

Locking down islands is much easier. They've had no cases here on the Isles of Scilly but are rather apprehensive now about the tourists who will be arriving soon.

Interesting article MaizieD and their figures aren’t a lot worse now over a month later!

Greece is another country I’ve watched due to having friends living in Kefalonia and they have a similar population to Belgium and Sweden, had an extremely hard lockdown and have less than 200 deaths.

It might have been easier to lockdown islands and is a very military policing country like Spain and Italy. Cops carrying guns seems to work along the Med - imagine the outcry here!

Yes, I was going to say mask wearing too in regards to Japan. When I've been to the Far East it has always been noticeable that many Japanese people wear masks.
DD has Japanese friends and colleagues and if I've been introduced to them they tended to give a formal little bow rather than shake hands.

I’ve just read an interesting Guardian article about Japan. They did close down schools, ban large public gatherings etc very early on. But they have very little testing so there could be more cases than are officially published. They also, as a matter of course, take off their shoes at home: something that most of us do anyway but they’re possibly more thorough about it. And I’d assume public toilets etc are spotless. They also eat a very healthy diet and tend not to be overweight.

I don't know that much about Japan either. I do know that border enforcement measures were put in place quite quickly and permission to enter the country was denied to many (I think it still is).

This is one of the articles about Japan I looked at:

foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/14/japan-coronavirus-pandemic-lockdown-testing/

It's not easy to find anything up to date about Japan, but from what I have found it seems that it's a combination of rapid response to outbreaks, including local lockdowns, readiness to close borders, and the fact that the Japanese don't shake hands, have a very high standard of hygiene as a matter of course and have a high rate of mask wearing. I think that large gatherings were banned, too.

Someone else might be able to search more effectively than me and find out more.

The way Sweden has treated it’s older population is tantamount to euthanasia. There is a Dr John chat with a Swedish doctor that is very disturbing.

I’m trying to remember if DrJohn has had an internet chat with someone fromJapan. He may have done. I’ll check it out.

www.ft.com/content/7ecd5ded-9b90-4052-b849-0e153f701e1f

Sweden still has one of the highest death rates per capita in the world. Covid-19 has killed a very high percentage of the elderly and many people are questioning the country's response.

Its neighbour, Denmark, has virtually eradicated Covid-19.

Sweden’s death rate is terrible compared to it’s neighbouring countries so I don’t think anyone can say their herd immunity policy has been successful in any way. Although Japan haven’t had a strict lockdown they do have very strict standards of hygiene, although it is rather puzzling. Because the virus is so unpredictable we still have to assume that it’s everywhere and it can kill us. I’ve just had a message from my daughter to say her random antibody test has come back positive: I did say it was a good thing that we isolated ourselves from her very early in the pandemic but she pointed out that she’d had a chest infection earlier in the year when we were still seeing each other. It’s all very strange. They do stress that, even if your test result is positive you mustn’t change your Covid safe behaviour in any way.

And Japan, Growstuff?

I’m not trying to catch anyone out on this, I genuinely cannot see how their figure is so low given the population & density and lack of lockdown.

It depends on local circumstances. Spain has some of the most densely populated regions in Europe, as does Belgium.

We saw for ourselves that our half-hearted lockdown did make a difference. I just wish we'd gone further. Germany is very similar to the UK in many ways and had well organised lockdowns plus testing and tracking.

Spain was slow at the beginning, but then imposed strict lockdown. If it hadn't, it could very well still have the relatively high infection rates the UK still has and wouldn't have been able to open up the economy to tourism.

It all does add up.

I don’t understand the way a hard lockdown is perceived as a wonderful thing when Japan didn’t have one and have less than 1000 dead with a population of 120,000,000.

Nearer to home Sweden didn’t have one, Belgium did and the former have just over half the deaths (similar populations)

Something isn’t adding up....

I guess abroad they are not back to 'normal' but 'new normal', masks, distancing, etc which is the only way possible to go forward.

Spain has had one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. That's what we needed in the UK.

I thought people in Spain were really worried about all the tourists returning ?

Which scientists think the Covid-19 virus is weakening? I haven't read anything claiming that.

The friends I have in Spain aren't back in their schools yet. Possibly because summer hols will start soon.

So is life normal in Spain then Urm? No masks, no restrictions at all ? Your comment on treatment options is overegging the pudding somewhat