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Second waves - dealing with the virus part 2 ??

(231 Posts)
MawB Tue 23-Jun-20 08:59:01

It’s not gone, it’s not even going to be gone - but it’s how we deal with it that will make the difference.
Beijing faced lockdown after reporting an outbreak last week after being declared virus-free for a whole day.
An Anglesey chicken plant has had 175 new cases recently.
Germany has had a serious outbreak in and around Gütersloh starting in an abattoir and meat processing plant, it is suspected involving unsanitary living conditions for migrant workers.
Berlin has had a surge in the poor and densely populated Neu-Kölln area of the city
And now South Korea , previously held up as a shining example is facing a worrying surge as health authorities in South Korea admitted yesterday it was experiencing a “second wave” in Seoul.
Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is reported as saying it had become clear that a holiday weekend in early May marked the start of a new wave of infections in the densely populated greater Seoul area, which had previously seen few cases.
There are some common factors such as working temperatures in the meat processing plants but also the lamentable living conditions where migrant workers have been involved and of course predictable consequences in lapses in social distancing, but in all cases prompt identification, testing, tracking and isolating have been paramount in stopping these second waves from becoming countrywide.
I just hope that this time the government and our public health authorities can learn from the experience of others.

Luckygirl Tue 23-Jun-20 09:33:01

There is no doubt that there will be a second wave. Let us indeed all hope that the government will take purposeful action to contain the outbreaks that are around the corner. They got it all wrong first time round - we can only hope they are capable of learning by experience.

Jane10 Tue 23-Jun-20 09:37:53

We had holiday weekends in May, large groups meeting in parks, demonstrations in lots of places etc etc but the infection rate is still going down.
Sounds like the vaccine might be ready soon then it'll be all systems go vaccinating the over 50s. I'm no Pollyanna but the doom and gloom merchants (not you MawB) seem to positively revel in unearthing bad news.
Chin(s) up ladies, the balance of probability is that things will be OK. Not necessarily brilliant but OK and that's good enough for me.

MawB Tue 23-Jun-20 09:41:13

Thank you Jane10
I thought there was room for some facts in amongst the wildly varying shades of opinion here about shielding/ distancing/ bubbles/ and involvement in childcare hmm

MawB Tue 23-Jun-20 09:46:55

However I wouldn’t be holding my breath for the vaccine
It appears that the Oxford coronavirus vaccine will be rolled out in October under 'best scenario' as a one-month delay has meant Britain will be edging closer to winter flu season, and the possibility of a second coronavirus peak, without a vaccine.
As to the rate reducing, Coventry, Bedford and Anglesey (as I mentioned) have all seen very recent spikes.
I am not a prophet of doom, but local rates must be taken into account. It is too easy for the 5 o clock briefing to quote its stats, but look at the regional curves - and don’t speak too soon.

growstuff Tue 23-Jun-20 09:48:31

Jane10 From what I've heard, mass vaccination is still a long way off. It's highly unlikely to be available before the end of this year - if ever.

We need an effective find, test, track and isolate system, so that cases can be quarantined as quickly as possible to prevent further spread.

Jane10 Tue 23-Jun-20 09:49:15

I've looked at the regional stats on the Covid Tracker site. I check it every day as I submit my data. They don't worry me. Personal responsibility is what matters and nobody is stopping people from thinking before they act.

growstuff Tue 23-Jun-20 09:54:46

1. Get rid of Dido Harding.
2. Sidestep Matt Hancock and Helen Whately.
3. Call a meeting of regional public health directors.
4. Tell them to mobilise teams to operate local find, test, track and isolate and provide them with the equipment they need.
5. Provide facilities (accommodation if necessary) for people who need to be in quarantine, including adequate compensation for loss of earnings and give the no reason for needing to leave their place of quarantine.

growstuff Tue 23-Jun-20 09:56:16

Jane10 Good for you! You obviously don't live in an area where transmission rates are high. It only takes one person to travel to a region and meet a handful of other people for infection to become rampant.

Witzend Tue 23-Jun-20 09:56:17

Singapore (we have relatives there) has also found cases much more prevalent among their army of migrant workers, many of whom are housed in crowded conditions, including dormitories.

From what I’ve read, the nasty little beast seems to favour cold conditions, so I do worry about a 2nd wave once we’re into November.

Whitewavemark2 Tue 23-Jun-20 09:57:36

6. Get rid of the government

growstuff Tue 23-Jun-20 09:58:25

People don't have a choice about living or working in crowded conditions, however personally responsible they are.

growstuff Tue 23-Jun-20 10:00:02

Whitewave That's probably needed before 1-5 will take place.

I should have added:

7. Forget about making a profit for your mates.

Lucca Tue 23-Jun-20 10:02:13

Well said MawB . In Australia where cases have been minimal they are still not allowed to travel interstate, returning visitors are taken immediately to a quarantine hotel.
Whereas here we had a late non Enforceable lockdown, prominent government advisors breaking guidelines and being excused. Next time let’s really hope they do a bit better .

Lucca Tue 23-Jun-20 10:04:02

Incidentally why is MawB not classed as one of the doom and gloom merchants ? Who is ? That’s for Jane10!

MawB Tue 23-Jun-20 10:08:41

Oh Lucca sad I like to think of myself as a realist!

Jane10 Tue 23-Jun-20 10:24:06

There's the doom and gloom merchants who tend to be a subset of the 'we blame the government for everything' brigade but also some worried and isolated Grans too as well as Grans who soak up every sensationalist media story forgetting that only bad news sells. I hadn't, previously counted MawB in any of those camps.

Callistemon Tue 23-Jun-20 10:31:43

The consultant in charge of the A&E at a Welsh hospital had spoken to scientists about this at length and much earlier on they had predicted a second wave in July and an even worse one in October. He said they could just about cope with another in July but if a far worse wave arrived in October then, basically, they were f****d . He looked desperate back then, poor man.

We hope the predictions are not correct but, judging by people's behaviour recently, they may well be.

Some states are open in Australia, Lucca but not all. There is a rise in cases in Melbourne, I understand.

Rosalyn69 Tue 23-Jun-20 10:39:36

I think we have to accept that the virus is staying around on and off for the foreseeable future and we are going to have to learn to live with it and deal with it - as individuals and hospitals, schools, businesses etc including government and local councils.
We can’t just wait for it go go away. It could with us for years.

Callistemon Tue 23-Jun-20 10:45:34

I think what we do need to know is who has had it, developed antibodies and whether or not that is sufficient to prevent someone getting another infection, as well as how long that immunity may last.

GrannyGravy13 Tue 23-Jun-20 10:58:04


I think what we do need to know is who has had it, developed antibodies and whether or not that is sufficient to prevent someone getting another infection, as well as how long that immunity may last.

There was a Doctor on TV this morning saying that the Scientists now believe that Covid-19 antibodies only remain in the body for approximately six months.

As for a vaccine, yes it would be marvellous if a credible and effective one was found............but scientists have been looking for a cure for the common cold for as long as I can remember, without any success!!

I think that those with underlying conditions should be careful as we go into winter, the rest of the population should carry on in a way that they feel comfortable with.

growstuff Tue 23-Jun-20 11:30:30

Jane10 There are also some people who don't seem to want to take responsibility for themselves and post questions such as "Is it OK if I look after my grandchild if I don't get caught?" That's not taking responsibility. It's not a question of "being caught" by the police or neighbours. It's about whether the infection will catch you and thinking about who your contacts are and who they've been in contact with.

Jane10 Tue 23-Jun-20 11:41:42

I agree entirely growstuff- idiocy is prevalent but it's not new. Hard to protect oneself against it.

growstuff Tue 23-Jun-20 11:51:45

Exactly, which is why the government does have to enforce rules for the public good. Unfortunately, we can't all look after ourselves if others won't.

MayBee70 Tue 23-Jun-20 12:23:27

Is there not a worry that meat from processing plants posts a risk. It will be wrapped plastic which holds the virus for much longer than paper and will be kept at a constant cold temperature which just happens to be temperature that the virus is happiest without. I can’t help but feel there’s more to it than the cramped conditions in which employees work and live (although that doesn’t help). Look how many hotspots have originated from meat processing plants. I also worry about the fashion for feeding pets raw food these days.