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Hard to spread Corvid 19 outside (an OPINION)

(33 Posts)
GagaJo Fri 03-Jul-20 09:25:57

Link below BUT also copied and pasted. Nice to read something positive for a change.

cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-safety-of-outdoor-air-for.html

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

There is now powerful observational evidence that outdoor air is extraordinary safe regarding COVID-19, and the recent protests have helped provide it. The protests/riots began in Seattle and other cities on May 26th. Thousands gathered without social distancing and a good 10% had no masks. They participated in chanting, singing, screaming and other activities that ensured plenty of droplets were injected in the air, and that unhealthful environment was "enhanced" by coughing from tear gas and other agents.

Did this huge exposure result in increased spread of COVID-19? The answer is clearly no.

Consider Washington's King County, a hotbed of protests starting 26 May (see below). Both hospitalizations and deaths showed no upward spike after the protests (the blue line shows May 26th). We should have seen a signal by now, since the average time to symptoms is approximately five days.

It is important to note that the number of COVID-19 cases is going up modestly in King County, but that is being driven by a near doubling of tests (note that the bottom graph starts earlier). Much of the media neglects to note the importance of increased testing in finding more cases.

This lack of a coronavirus spike has been noted in every major city in the U.S., something discussed in the Seattle Times today and in many media outlets.

These are huge number of independent experiments in varying environments and climates. A very good sample. And the obvious conclusion is that COVID-19 has a very difficult time spreading in outdoor air. There is no other explanation.

Some of you might argue that many of the protestors were young and so would not get very ill. True enough. But young people can get sick from it and they could certainly give it to their parents, neighbors, and folks in food stores and restaurants. There were plenty of teenagers and folks in their early 20s still living at home who were at the protests.

You want more evidence? No problem. About a month ago, there was a huge media commotion about "irresponsible" outdoor parties at Missouri's Lake of the Ozarks. Several media outlets promised a huge uptick in COVID-19 cases.

What actually happened? Nothing. No spike of COVID-19 cases in the neighboring counties. Outdoor air is safe.

Eloethan Mon 06-Jul-20 00:35:46

I've always thought this focus on 2 metres outside, people wearing masks outside, etc, is over the top. I have abided by the distancing rules, though, because I can see that some people are very frightened so, if necessary, I cross the road when I go for a walk - though I've noticed most people are much more relaxed about it now.

I do think that there is likely to be an increased risk in being close to large numbers of people, even if it's outside (as has happened on popular beaches).

I have heard so many different explanations of the virus and interpretations of the rules that I have rather lost patience. Like SueDonim I also thought they said originally that the virus was not airborne, which is why I thought it was a bit daft being so obsessed with distancing. Originally they were emphasizing the need to wash your hands and not touch your mouth, eyes and nose because touch was the way the virus was transmitted. If it is airborne then surely spending all day in an enclosed space, such as an open plan office, factory or other indoor workplace, with a number of other people must significantly increase the risk?

I'm OK with my own company but there is a limit! I do like getting together with friends and family and I've really had enough of all this. At some point we have to get back to a degree of normality, even if it means accepting a degree of risk. How can restaurants, cafes, entertainment complexes, etc, etc, function profitably if only half, or less, of their customers are allowed in?

On the other hand, perhaps we need to have a re-think about how many eating, shopping, and entertainment outlets we really need, and instead labour can be re-directed to more important issues that help produce healthy food in the most environmentally friendly way, save resources, reduce pollution and just generally protect the planet.

growstuff Tue 07-Jul-20 03:18:54

Current research suggests that Covid-19 is partially airborne:

academic.oup.com/occmed/article/doi/10.1093/occmed/kqaa080/5849370

growstuff Tue 07-Jul-20 03:21:10

For those who don't like links, here's an extract from the above article:

"There is more than enough evidence of the interpersonal spread of COVID infection via airborne transmission. A recent report of the unfortunate results of a choir practice in Washington State brings this point home. Sixty singers convened for their weekly rehearsal in a semi-rural county where no COVID cases had been previously detected. All reported that they had been in good health that day. Hand sanitizers were provided. The singers were conscious of self-distancing and they avoided ‘the usual hugs and handshakes’. Nobody coughed, sneezed or appeared ill. Nevertheless, within 3 weeks 45 of the singers had been diagnosed with COVID and two had died [10]. This remarkable example of interpersonal ‘super spreading’ is best explained by the enhanced aerosolized transmission that resulted from enthusiastic singing. And the spread to so many, despite distancing, argues that transmission was not due solely to localized droplet dispersion, but more likely to wider dispersion of aerosolized droplet nuclei."

BlueSky Wed 08-Jul-20 09:22:12

Yes Growstuff I read that now the WHO have had to acknowledge the possibility of 'airborne transmission in crowded, closed, poor ventilated settings'. Not that I'll be venturing in any soon but I realise not everybody has a choice. So at least let's have compulsory masks in all indoor settings!

MawB Wed 08-Jul-20 09:39:38

I am prepared to accept that terrifyingly little was known about this virus, its effects, its transmission,its treatment, its origins, its “behaviour” in the early weeks and months. Each week however brings the fruits of more research, possibly by trial and error, but that’s how we learn isn’t it? I think that is more valuable than the mathematical “modelling” which has underpinned much of the government’s response and which in some cases has proved fatally flawed. (Foot and mouth, SARS being two examples)
It’s a good enough reason for me, for hunkering down as treatment improves, outcomes are better managed and hopefully we get closer to a vaccine.

MayBee70 Wed 08-Jul-20 12:17:04

But many of the things that are now being ‘discovered’ about the virus have been touted by Dr John Campbell for weeks/months and he also put up scientific reports to back them up.

varian Thu 09-Jul-20 19:32:44

Today we left our little village for the first time since early March. We went to our nearest small town to get cash and visit a few shops and businesses.

I wore a mask and disposable gloves. The town was fairly quiet and I didn't see anyone else wearing a mask. I hope that some of the folk who saw me might consider doing the same.