And so it starts to unravel

If you look at the statistics for the number of new cases daily against the number of deaths announced there is obviously something wrong eg today officially In the UK 687 new cases and 114 deaths, France 836 cases but only 14 deaths, Brazil over 7000 new cases and 175 deaths. According to such figures COVID-19 is about 10 times more virulent in the UK than anywhere else.

I'm not sure if this is on or off topic but I've been monitoring excess deaths (i.e deaths in excess of the 5 year average) published weekly by the Office for National Statistics, and until a couple of weeks ago they were always well in excess of the 5 year average. They are running at about 60,000 for the whole of the UK since the start of the year. Whether or not they are 'with' covid or 'from' covid they are still excess deaths.

I'm not sure how they can be accounted for by any other cause.

tidyskatemum

If you look at the statistics for the number of new cases daily against the number of deaths announced there is obviously something wrong eg today officially In the UK 687 new cases and 114 deaths, France 836 cases but only 14 deaths, Brazil over 7000 new cases and 175 deaths. According to such figures COVID-19 is about 10 times more virulent in the UK than anywhere else.

It could be because there's more testing in France.

MaisieD is right in that excess deaths is one of the best ways to measure the effect of COVID.

Here in Spain, the figure of 28,000+ deaths is seen as incorrect accounting, as the excess deaths by the Spanish equivalent of ONS shows a figure of 48,000.

Given their population of 45million their rate is higher per million than UK and today’s infections have shot up to 1400 which is double UK.

Their lockdown was stricter than ours, was lifted and now some areas are re-introducing them.

Some would claim that excess deaths will include a lot of people who ought to have had treatment for other illnesses and conditions, but didn't get it.

I'm glad you said 'measure the effect' of covid, pantglas.

I don't for one minute think that every one of those 60,000+ deaths is actually one caused by covid directly. There must be a significant number of deaths among them of people who weren't able to get treatment for other life threatening conditions because the NHS was overstretched by dealing with covid cases.

X posts, Far North

But I wonder how large that group would be.

I agree with Maizie, I think the excess deaths is one of the best way to measure the effects of Covid19. Otherwise it’s too confusing, with descriptions such as died with Covid19, or died from Covid19. I thought in the early days, please correct if I’m wrong, but I thought only people who actually tested positive for Covid19 were included in the figures, whereas people who died of Covid19 but hadn’t been tested didn’t have CV on their death certificate. It’s really quite confusing and I normally don’t feel so confused about things.

Throwing this one into the mix
“How many of the doctors that signed the death certificates have actually even met the patients ?”

A very old saying, which I believe still holds true: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics".

My son died after being given the wrong drugs by the hospital who would have been on a manslaughter police charge except he lived for 2 weeks afterwards so the main cause of death was given as his underlying condition. The coroner gave a narrative verdict however which listed the hospital errors. It is all very complicated.

maddyone

I agree with Maizie, I think the excess deaths is one of the best way to measure the effects of Covid19. Otherwise it’s too confusing, with descriptions such as died with Covid19, or died from Covid19. I thought in the early days, please correct if I’m wrong, but I thought only people who actually tested positive for Covid19 were included in the figures, whereas people who died of Covid19 but hadn’t been tested didn’t have CV on their death certificate. It’s really quite confusing and I normally don’t feel so confused about things.

From what I remember, you're correct. Care home and home deaths weren't included in the NHS figures. Many of those people hadn't been tested and I guess we'll never know what exactly killed them.

It seems that this current attempt to reduce the numbers is clutching at straws. There are probably just as many deaths recorded as "Covid" as those which weren't.

Cancer is very rarely listed on a death certificate as the patient usually dies of something else due to their weakness from having cancer before the cancer carries them off. Statistics can be very misleading. The quote incidentally about lies, damned lies and statistics originated from Benjamin Disraeli.

I agree Avalon. My mother was riddled with cancer, but the prime cause of death was listed as respiratory. No doctor had seen her for weeks before her death.

The article that I read said that, for example, if you had Covid-19 in April and recovered but were knocked down by a bus and killed in July, you would still be recorded as a Covid-19 death.
As for number of infected, I think we will never know the true number. DD1 had it as did her partner and all his family (6 people) The grandmother died and is the only one recorded. The others, who all recovered without hospital care, weren't recorded as they weren't able to be tested at that time.

I think this is why Germany's death rate from Covid19 appears so low. They are more organised where reason for death is concerned.

What matters most is that a common method of calculating is agreed. I understood that the method used in England is to log all those testing positive and then log any of them who subsequently die, no matter how long afterwards or from what.
I also wonder whether our tests give false positives - when you think of the wide range of poss symptoms that wouldn’t be surprising.

Other countries figures are the number of deaths over and above the norm for that period. In UK that's over 65,000. So our figures have been under stated.

As they say, figures can be manipulated to mean anything. Nothing has been standard in all this Covid-19 death rate or infection numbers. Even the 4 nations in the UK have different systems.

Looking back we feel pretty sure we had it back in Feb. We had what we thought were horrendous colds with persistent cough. DD and all of her family had it too. The school I teach in were all coughing and dropping like flies and had to close for 2 days for deep clean so did my GS’s school. We were quite poorly and then I went down with Shingles. Then lockdown happened! A friend was also really poorly at Xmas, he suffers from asthma and he went down with what they said was a chest infection but he was ill for 4 weeks. He’s pretty sure now it was Covid.

The reason for Germany's death rate being so low is because they do not disclose medical details on the death certificate.
My BIL died in June, he had cancer but developed pneumonia and was tested for covid19.
I asked my sister what they had listed as cause of death and she said that no medical details are entered, only place of birth and place of death.
A doctor is not allowed to disclose health issues to an employer either thus allowing incidents like the airline pilot who flew the German plane into a mountain.

Sounds awful Molli- but why have you not been tested to see if you, or any of the people you mentionned, has actually had it?

We certainly were not isolating for nothing - only by keeping people apart can the spread of this virus be halted.
Does it really make any difference how a loved one’s death is recorded?- the grief is the same.

The saying. " Lies. Damn lies and statistics ". seems to have some significance here.

I am convinced that myself, Mr B and my son all had Covid19 over Christmas, the Dr who I saw said it was a virus. Eventually I got over it but it left me extremely weak and took around 6 weeks to get back my energy. Also left me with a damaged lungs so I now have to use an inhaler and visit the hospital. I ask how many other people over the winter just had a virus? I believe the Covid19 was in this country much earlier than reported and I don't think we will ever know the true figures for deaths worldwide.