Why we are still in deep trouble

Lemongrass I agree and what we must remember is we are still learning about the virus, and many people are ignoring the advise, and others confusing thing for confusing things sake. People saying only a tiny percentage are dead, are ignoring that it's only a tiny percentage because of lockdown, yes we need to start reopening now as we know so much more. Hope every stays safe and well, and soon re enjoys some type of Normal life

The very best thing that could happen for us is to get rid of the government, Buffoon boris is useless, changing his mind about rules he makes, We are really doomed until he goes and we get someone who puts the people before profits.

I agree @Lemongrove

Spot on Lemongrove. I am sick of the relentless complaining and the hindsight statements from so many who were strangely silent at those times when, apparently, completely different things should have been done. The world has never had to attempt to manage a situation like this before. Of course some mistakes will have been made, of course advice will subsequently be found to be wrong, but for goodness sake, does anyone think that politicians have set out to alienate the electorate and kill people? If you are alive today then thank your lucky stars - and let's just move forward cautiously with what we know, or think we know, and be grateful for our scientists who are leading the world in the search for vaccines, antibodies and testing.

Yesterday it was reported that the death rate in UKJ is down to the norm. for this time of year (based on figures for past five years).

Long before Covid19, when my lovely old Dad died, a post mortem was done because it was unsure whether he died of heart failure or the chest infection he was suffering from at the time. It turned out to be heart failure. However Mum and I were both very upset because Dad was 89 years old, had been suffering heart failure for years, and to be honest, we were terribly upset that a post mortem had to be done. Mum said ‘Poor old man.’ It seemed so unnecessary, he was old and ill. It didn’t really matter whether heart failure or a chest infection killed him. He had died. Therefore I’m not sure what difference it makes to individual families what is written on the death certificate, the grieving and the loss is just the same.

The worst thing for families is that they were unable to be with their family members during their illnesses because of Covid19.

Further to the question of patients dying from or with the virus, an elderly neighbour’s son told my husband that his father’s death certificate stated covid yet he had not been tested.

He had in fact died of cancer, and the family is determined to have the death certificate changed.

Apparently covid is often used to avoid the need for a post mortem.

We have no way of knowing how often that happens in hospitals up and down the country.

A lot of excess deaths could be simply because in the early days of the lockdown so many people were too scared to go to hospital for vital tests, so by the time they were properly examined and tested it was too late to save them.

Crikey Ellianne you must have gone to a very civilised university, I don’t remember it like that at all!
Yes, Casdon, Bedford College for Women, University of London. Very posh in Regent's Park.

Crikey Ellianne you must have gone to a very civilised university, I don’t remember it like that all! The crush of young people in bars and discos in the seventies was pretty much the same as it is now, and we probably drank more too. I just wonder if at that age we would have heeded the dangers to older people any more than they are now - I honestly doubt it.

Gone are the days when we sat quietly in the corner of the pub with a Martini! Even at university, 40+ years ago, the common room and bar were made up of smaller groups.

I agree with you Ellianne
It’s not about blaming particular groups, it’s about observing what is happening. You are correct Ellianne, the Chief Medical Officer for Trafford did say that, and anyone who watches the news on television can see that the people out drinking in the streets and not socially distancing are younger people. I know some younger people are shunning the alcohol culture but that cannot possibly be the majority because footage of younger people all over the country, including the north west, has been shown repeatedly ever since the pubs reopened. Of course there is a drinking culture amongst older people too, but they predominantly drink at home and are therefore are not spreading Covid19. The grey brigade also frequently go out to lunch in pubs and cafes, and may well drink alcohol too, but again they are much more likely to be found during the week in a quiet pub, rather than on Friday or Saturday night in the middle of throngs of other people. I’m sorry if these facts don’t suit everyone’s narrative, but it is what it is, throngs of people drinking alcohol and often getting drunk merry don’t go hand in hand with social distancing.

MerylStreep

gillybob
My friend did see her brothers death certificate where the cause was covid. He didn't go in with covid and he never had it while he was in there.

Exactly my point MerylStreep thank you . My neighbour is adamant she wants the cause of her mums death corrected and I can’t say I blame her .

Just interested Urmstongran, didn't the Chief Medical Officer for Trafford say something along the lines that it was the young people who were spreading the virus locally because they were doing things that older people don't do, (ie mixing and probably drinking with random friends). Not blaming anyone, just saying.

I don’t honestly think that any country will have recorded Covid accurately. In fact I would like to see normal death rate alongside current death rates. Mumsnet has a good thread on the numbers.
I am of the lies ,damned lies and statistics school of thought.

IRAN has dramatically under-reported the extent of its coronavirus epidemic, according to leaked government figures that show almost three times as many Covid-19 deaths than Tehran has officially acknowledged.

I live in Trafford growstuff What about Trafford? It's a white, relatively wealthy area, but has one of the highest infection rates in Greater Manchester

Hmm.
Huge areas of deprivation and mixed ethnicities (just demonstrating ‘not white’ nothing else) in Partington and Old Trafford.

gillybob
My friend did see her brothers death certificate where the cause was covid. He didn't go in with covid and he never had it while he was in there.

Of course we're still in deep trouble and I fear we will be for a long, long while to come. With all the different advice and reports coming from various scientists, virologists, and statisticians etc., there comes a point where information overload starts to muddy the waters. Let alone listening to those in government who are selectively choosing to have their own agenda. It's not a case of one group blaming another, it's a case of sifting through the data and trying to make some sense of it.

Nobody can afford to binge drink in my area and the nearest pub is so small you couldn't swing a cat in it so social distancing would prove difficult anyway. I'm glad to say Seemingly it's the middle-classes who are helping spread the virus ? They're the ones with the money to go out and spend it-----foolishly.

As the area goes, we haven't had many cases ( touch wood ) even though it's a seaside place, but neither have we had the weather to encourage the crowds, so I suppose that's in its favour too. It's quite well spaced out, no crowded towns etc.

But it is important that deaths are recorded correctly and we cannot simply proportion a death to CV just because someone tested positive at the time of death.

Did you see what was written on the death certificate?

Of course I didn't growstuff what a ridiculous question . But my neighbour did !

It was her mum not mine. I trust she was telling me the truth.

Because of differences in the way cases and deaths are recorded in different countries, the most accurate basis for comparing how well or badly any nation has fared is the measure of "excess deaths".

This compares this years' monthly deaths with the average for the same month over previous years.

Paradoxically we may sometimes find that a month's "excess deaths" are negative for a number of reasons - eg lockdown limiting other infections or the fact that the some of the most vulnerable who would have been expected to die that month have already died, either from covid or lack of treatment for other conditions.

Nevertheless, scrutiny of excess deaths over a period is the most important basis for analysis and assessment of the performance of governments in their response to the pandemic.

Out of 62,000 excess deaths I doubt if a few registrations of death 'with' covid, rather than death 'from' covid are really going to make a huge difference to the statistics.

I'm not sure what people who raise this are trying to prove. The fact is that we have had 62,000 more deaths than 'normal' between April and July and that our excess deaths figure is the highest in Europe.

So we either have a exceptionally susceptible population or something has been badly wrong with the handling of the pandemic.

There were people, especially at the beginning, who weren't counted as Covid-19 deaths because they weren't tested. If anything, there have been more Covid 19 deaths than less.

Callistemon

gillybob

Does anyone, anywhere have the real figures?

I'm beginning to doubt it. 40% of this and 10% of that means nothing at all.

Why is it that in England (and I mean England not the UK) every death of a person who tests positive for CV is logged as a death from CV? My neighbours mum had terminal cancer with only weeks to live. She was in hospital where she died and tested positive for CV. The cause of death was named as CV except it wasn't was it ? For very personal reasons my neighbour is fighting the authorities to have it changed. This is only one example

Don't ask gillybob
You will get your knuckles rapped and be accused of being a supporter of this Government

When in fact you (and I) are querying a possible anomaly in compiling statistics, even just in the UK .

I've already explained. I saw an interview with a statistician about this. She said that it does need to change, so that England is consistent with Scotland, but at the moment it hasn't made any significant difference to the total figures.