So lockdown worked!

I very much fear, Elleanne that it doesn't take a crystal ball to see where the infection rate will be heading after Christmas.

The data for Christmas week will be based on infections contracted before Christmas, which may well still be heading downwards. Any effects of the Christmas relaxation won't be seen until after New Year, assuming a 7 - 14 day incubation period. Which is why I can't see how there can be any meaningful data on which to base New Year planning.

I agree GreyKnitter. No one has a crystal ball to see the future.

MaizieD

^The plan is that the country's measures over the period will be guided by the data. The restrictions for New Year will depend heavily on the number of infections.^

As there are fewer than 7 days between the Christmas hooley and New Year I'm at a loss to see where any meaningful data can be obtained.

Am I missing something?

Meaningful data is being gained week on week, day on day too. Show me any country which has made firm decisions about New Year yet. They are all still waiting to see where the infection rate is heading before calling a New Year amnesty on restrictions.

I think we’re all in a situation that none of us have ever been in before and I think governments if almost every country and working on a system of doing what they believe to be the right thing to curb the virus. Is we'd been told we couldn’t see anyone at Christmas there would have been uproar and people doing just as they please anyway. We have been told that we can mix with 2 other households but doesn’t mean that we have to. Our decision. It will be interesting to see how the virus figures rise/fall during the aftermath of the celebrations.

ALANaV

So far the only winners are the government ....taking democracy away and treating everyone like children ...it is time we took responsibility for ourselves and were allowed to decide how to live our lives safely and sensibly. Inciting mass hysteria is no way to govern a country. Of great concern to me is the mental health of isolated and lonely people...(having worked in the NHS in mental health before retirement) and also the fact that cancer and other illnesses have not been treated. The Nightingale hospitals were built to take COVID patient......and are lying virtually empty ...WHY ? disgraceful ......

Because it was just a PR exercise. They’ve never had the staff to man them.

Youcantchoosethem

Hasn’t worked at all around where I live - Braintree in Essex. Rates have gone up massively in the last week - doubling from the previous new high.

I've got exactly the same graph from Zoe for my bit of Norfolk. Strange that.

The plan is that the country's measures over the period will be guided by the data. The restrictions for New Year will depend heavily on the number of infections.

As there are fewer than 7 days between the Christmas hooley and New Year I'm at a loss to see where any meaningful data can be obtained.

Am I missing something?

Thanks Alegrias I guess that explains it.
A step in the right direction.

Ellianne - in answer to your question, because we didn't have as much testing before and so we probably missed an awful lot of cases. Therefore the peak of the number of cases was actually much larger than we thought it was, and so it took longer to get down to very small numbers.

What I fail to understand, and yes I don't know it all, how come with this latest shorter 4 week lockdown, where people have been less compliant and schools and unis still running, we have got the R rate down far quicker than last time when it took 12 weeks?

He doesn't seem to have considered New Year either.

So is that any great surprise?
The plan is that the country's measures over the period will be guided by the data. The restrictions for New Year will depend heavily on the number of infections.

AlanaV - great to see someone with their eyes wide open who talks sense!

^ The Nightingale hospitals were built to take COVID patient......and are lying virtually empty ...WHY ? disgraceful ......^

They're lying empty because there is no-one to staff them.

They're also unsuitable for covid patients, rudimentary separation of patients and no proper hospital standard ventilation, so lots of opportunity for those aerosols to hang around and infect more of the very scarce staff...

Alegrias2

NannyC2 Kennedy is a nutcase who has been disowned by his family. None of what he says is true.

Ivor Cummings is a Chemical Engineer who writes cookery books.

Googling is not research.

Exactly this. FFS stop thinking people who aren't epidemiologists/virologists know any more than anyone else.

You fail to understand. Mr J does have a plan and knows full well that only 70% or so will comply with the restrictions.

As his plan seems to include the virus taking 5 days off while everyone has a hooley with their relatives at Christmas I don't find it at all easy to have any confidence in it.

He doesn't seem to have considered new Year, either...

So far the only winners are the government ....taking democracy away and treating everyone like children ...it is time we took responsibility for ourselves and were allowed to decide how to live our lives safely and sensibly. Inciting mass hysteria is no way to govern a country. Of great concern to me is the mental health of isolated and lonely people...(having worked in the NHS in mental health before retirement) and also the fact that cancer and other illnesses have not been treated. The Nightingale hospitals were built to take COVID patient......and are lying virtually empty ...WHY ? disgraceful ......

I agree with you Jan16

It is a fact that whatever the PM does he would be criticised by some.

Ever since the virus arrived back in the spring the government has had an incredibly difficult balancing act with trying to control the virus and save lives, yet at the same time trying to ensure that millions of people aren’t without a job when it all ends.

They have made mistakes along the line but so has virtually every other country.

It does indeed sound as if this lockdown has had the desired effect, but we can’t stay in lockdown until the vaccines have been rolled out.

Despite that some people feel it’s wrong for shops and restaurants to reopen.

It’s worth repeating- the government can’t win!

Just because we can , doesn't mean we should. Just saying.........

You fail to understand. Mr J does have a plan and knows full well that only 70% or so will comply with the restrictions. He factors that in. That is why we have the tier system for the coming weeks. Some are quite hard done by on that front.

P.S. I don't know if it is lockdown working in our area, infections have been noticeably falling over the past couple of weeks, but we also seem to have a very good rate of compliance with mask wearing and social distancing.

Of course lockdowns work, as do prisons - Burglars in prison are unable to break in to a house to steal.

The problem has always been, what happens when you let people out.....and they revert back to behaviour that got them locked down/up in the first place!

I think the most sensible advice I've seen re Christmas is that members of families who intend to get together at Christmas should self isolate for 2 weeks beforehand so as to cut the risk of spreading the virus to their relatives. I mean all risks to all relatives because although the risk to the elderly might mean the risk of them dying, the risk to younger people is of Long Covid, which can be a result of quite mild seeming infections but can be highly debilitating and even life changing. And it seems to me that this is a very unknown quantity at the moment because no-one knows how long lasting and damaging it could be.

And although it is obvious that if one is displaying covid symptoms one shouldn't meet relatives the danger is that covid can be infectious in people who have it but are not yet displaying symptoms. So better to be on the safe side and take sensible precautions in advance.

When we were in lockdown 1, I constantly saw posts from people who said they knew how to keep themselves safe and weren’t necessarily going to be following BJ’s orders.
The minute it is announced that you can mix over Christmas, social media is full of posts from people who said they aren’t going to go out whatever he says you can or can’t do.
In actual fact, there will always be those who will take care, stay home and not mix and those who, either because they think it’s a hoax, a BB plot to control us, a removal of their civil liberties etc., will go out and make merry regardless of the risk to their lives and the lives of their loved ones.
As a hospitality or business owner, I’d be hoping for lots of the latter group. As a grandma in the ‘vulnerable group’ I’ll be in the first group.
We have to do what we can, but at least we can come on here and vent our feelings to stop ourselves going crazy!

NannyC2 Kennedy is a nutcase who has been disowned by his family. None of what he says is true.

Ivor Cummings is a Chemical Engineer who writes cookery books.

Googling is not research.

Rates here (South Yorkshire) have come down and we’re returning to tier 3 so hopefully they’ll continue to fall......just in time for the free for all Christmas to push us into the 3rd wave. Madness!