Second vaccine dose timing

Yes Hetty thank you, I understand that. It’s not really full immunity is it, the best is about 95% I think. So that’s what I meant really. And of course, we don’t know if the vaccine prevents transmission yet. In time, these questions will be answered, but for now we don’t know.

Of course Johnathan Vann-Tamm has a point, but how are people chosen to receive the vaccine now? A list of priority was made and it is being roughly followed. The same would apply. It’s important to note that the BMA have made their opposition to the vaccine spacing well known.

We actually have no choice in this unless the powers that be change their minds we just have to get on with it.
I am so hoping this will eventually start to bring the rates of hospital admissions and deaths down because we cant live or exsist in this lockdown state forever.
Some may be prepared to stay in for an indefinite period but many will not. We need children back at school and we need businesses to start to open again if they are to have any chance.

maddyone, 'Full immunity only after two doses' would be so wonderful - but it's not guaranteed. The vaccine works to reduce the chances of serious illness and death, for most people, but not all!

I agree Mollygo I find it hard to believe that the message has not got across to some people that this is not a vaccine to stop us catching the virus, not has its efficacy in preventing transmission yet to be established.
So no, I won’t be “cuddling my grandchildren” for months yet or using public transport, going into shops or meeting up with friends.
And I will still wear a face covering.
It’s not rocket science is it?
Today in the DT. by Jonathan Van-Tamm on the gap between vaccinations
Some people are questioning the UK policy of trying to give as many at-risk people as possible the first dose of vaccine in the shortest possible time, inevitably extending the interval before the second dose is given. But what none of these (who ask reasonable questions) will tell me is: who on the at-risk list should suffer slower access to their first dose so that someone else who’s already had one dose (and therefore most of the protection) can get a second? Everyone on the JCVI priority list is at risk from this nasty virus, and vaccines just can’t be produced at an unlimited rate

He has a point.

Mollygo
I agree that is a big concern. It suggests some people don’t understand the vaccination situation. Full immunity only after two doses for example. And we don’t yet know if the vaccination prevents transmission or not.

I’m a bit concerned about all the people being interviewed saying how lovely it’ll be to go and cuddle their family members again.
I’m sure it has been made clear that the protective effects of the vaccine take a while to emerge. I wish they would accompany each interview with a reiteration of that fact.

biba70

Very long and distinguised history of building Steam Engines in OH's family- but I truly fail to see the link.

It’s an analogy.

.....I did get a it short with people who were posting the same opinions based on sparse knowledge of how the decisions were made.

No! People were posting the same opinion based on there being no evidence that lengthening the time between jabs gives good protection.

I understand it's about more people having some protection that has the potential to save twice as many lives in this precarious situation we are currently in than fully protecting half as many people. Think I'd rather and loved ones have some protection than none.

OK then last word from me. If you have time on your hands take a look back at my posts. Take time to see that I've never claimed to know how to assess dosing regimes. Notice that I said on Thursday that I think it's right that doctors - i.e. people with relevant knowledge - should challenge decisions. On Friday I said I thought they may well change the dosing decisions in the future when there was more evidence. I showed a couple of times how the decision was made by scientists who are trying to save lives when people were blaming the government for political decisions. I did get a bit short with people continually posting the same opinions which are based on sparse knowledge of how the decisions were made. But unlike some I never resorted to personal attack and hurtful comments, nor attacked people about things they've never said.

Alegrias1

What a nasty, snide little thread this has become. Dismissing media people who are trying to educate their audiences, and unless I'm mistaken, accusations of lying, kept indirect of course to avoid being accused of personal attacks. Crack on then, knock yourselves out.

Really? My daughter, whose original degree is in economic history, wrote her MA thesis on disease, including pandemics, in the US and Australia. She knows a lot about the economic and social consequences of dealing with pandemics and how states make political decisions, etc etc. However, I don't suppose she has a clue about dosing schedules because she doesn't have a medical or scientific background. I would rather be "educated" by somebody who knows what they're talking about.

I guess spouting about vaccinations without specific expertise is one way or earning a living and paying the bills!

PS. The cracks certainly are beginning to show.

I for one am glad that they are getting as many as possible a vaccination. And will be very grateful when they get to the younger people with underlying conditions. It's sad when someone 80+ dies but I find it much more distressing when you see young people who havent had a chance of life losing their life

What a nasty, snide little thread this has become. Dismissing media people who are trying to educate their audiences, and unless I'm mistaken, accusations of lying, kept indirect of course to avoid being accused of personal attacks. Crack on then, knock yourselves out.

Having just read some reviews and feedback of Harford's podcast and book by real scientists, it's obvious he might know a lot about the economics and politics of vaccination, but they are scathing of his medical knowledge.

I don't think I will bother listening to him, after all!

janeainsworth

Growstuff if you bothered to listen to any of Tim Hartford’s podcasts or programmes you might not be so quick to dismiss him out of hand.

As for Michael Portillo, it’s probably not necessary to be able to build a steam engine in order to make an interesting and informative television programme about a railway journey

Why should I bother to do anything? How rude! Why don't you bother to do half the stuff I do?

Tim Harford can't have seen any empirical data because there isn't any. Somebody doesn't become an expert just because he's written a book or is on the radio.

Well said KaEllen. Certain posts somehow don't ring true and have reminded me more than once of a previous poster.

Alegrias. I just don't get your attitude:
Sigh KaEllen. I’m not answering your questions, because I just can’t be bothered. I’ve answered them so often, but you’re entitled to keep on believing what you like, of course. One thing I agree with you about, scientists are human. So when a scientist says over and over again “the sky is blue” and people keep coming along and saying, “Well obviously it’s green”, it can lead to some shouting.
A bit off the mark. A fair analogy would be, some scientists saying, 'the sky appears to be blue', or even 'I am fairly certain the sky is blue'; and other scientists saying, 'there may be some green', or 'we can't say this with certainty'.

Well, no need to thank me. My PhD thesis was reviewed by a Nobel prize winner before submission. What’s your claim to fame?
No claim to fame from me, but I know that I can think for myself.
You come across as a bit full of yourself; you really are convinced that you have the RIGHT answer, and don't want people to ask questions.

And by the way - having refused to answer my questions, you do further down in the thread give some actual links - again, I don't get that attitude.

Growstuff if you bothered to listen to any of Tim Hartford’s podcasts or programmes you might not be so quick to dismiss him out of hand.

As for Michael Portillo, it’s probably not necessary to be able to build a steam engine in order to make an interesting and informative television programme about a railway journey

Very long and distinguised history of building Steam Engines in OH's family- but I truly fail to see the link.

Michael Portillo did a TV series about railways but I doubt he knows much about building a steam engine.

Fair enough, but in that case there are other plenty of people without a medical or scientific or medical qualification who are highly intelligent and capable of analysing data. I doubt very much if he has seen any data which proves his point because even people who do have scientific or medical qualifications haven't seen it.

I thought Tim Harford is an economist or is there another Tim Harford?

The one I was referring to is an economist who writes for the Financial Times, presents More or Less on Radio 4 and has had a recent series ‘How to Vaccinate the World’ looking at all the global issues involved in the race to protect us all from Covid.

Being an economist doesn’t preclude him from being highly intelligent, analysing data and then presenting it in ways that non-mathematicians, non-economists and non-statisticians can understand.

Analogies can be a useful way of helping people to understand complex matters.

When the vaccine was being discussed on the news, one of the experts said that 88% of Covid deaths were people in the top 4 groups. If that is the case, wouldn't it make sense to give those people 2 jabs to give them the highest possible level of protection, rather than trying to give 1 jab to everyone?

It would mean that the rest of us would have to wait longer, but we would be waiting in descending order of risk. They could give each group 2 jabs and then move on to the next. The very young would be waiting for quite a long time but they are the least likely to be very ill or die.

Me too, even though I'm working, because the consequences of people with only some protection, the likelihood of them being called back for their second dose, and the ensuing chaos isn't worth a quick fix, in my opinion.

Mollygo

Rightly or wrongly, how many on GN would refuse their first dose even if you could guarantee someone else got two?
Mind you, it would be quite easy to say that on here and still go and get a vaccine tomorrow if offered, so we’ll never know.

I would refuse my dose, if I thought it meant that everybody would be efficiently vaccinated rather than nobody being properly protected.

All it would mean to me is that I'd have to stay at home a bit longer.