Second vaccine dose timing

Daisymae As far as I can tell, there isn't any solid empirical data and there won't be for some time. There's been so much written and it's difficult to cut through all the cr*p because it's obvious that a political decision was made and there's lack of transparency about supply issues. There are also commercial interests to consider. Joe Public can have an opinion but it's not likely to be well-informed. I'm becoming increasing sceptical about anybody who pushes an opinion and selective use of data.

So many magic bullets have been promoted and I just hope that this one doesn't go the same way as the rest.

Good posts growstuff.

Maddyone the idea of being forced into making a choice one way or the other is a bit oxymoronic isn’t it?

The briefing yesterday said the decision had been made to vaccinate more people further apart so that more people would have at least some protection.
That’s what was said, no ifs or buts; it was to afford more people at least some protection rather than fewer people potentially greater protection.

Because I’ve just been sent a link so I can book an appointment for my first dose, I am obviously happy about this decision, even knowing that there is dispute about the distance between vaccines.

Good luck with that then.
It just says no appointments when I try.

Sorry, that was a bit a abrupt, and I didn't intend it to be.

Also, I'm pleased that at long last some acknowledgement has been given regarding the vaccine gap.

There is nothing wrong with people wanting clarity.

MissAdventure not a problem. ??
I was suddenly sent a link from our local surgery to click on and book with appointments up to 2 weeks away. Last time I heard the news they hadn’t even got all the way through the over 80s in our area, never mind vaccine for the vulnerable.

Well, they're confident, still, that we'll all get "done" in the time frame they quoted, so..

I did think I heard "by the end of february" on the briefing last night, when it was previously the "middle", but I could be wrong (as I often am!)

The BMA coming out so strongly against the 12 week gap increases my concern. They are hardly a bunch of amateurs who get their information from YouTube.

My fear is that it is a political rather than scientific decision, as so many decisions have been during the pandemic. Too often the possible effect on the government's popularity or the anger of the Tory back benches has seemed to play too much of a part in their conclusions.

If you were prescribed a medicine, would you listen to your doctor's instructions on how and when to take it, read the manufacturer's instructions on the little leaflet in the box, and then go ahead and ignore all that information?... Isn't that what the government is doing? The doctors are telling us when to take it, so are the manufacturers, but apparently we're not going to listen to them.

Calendargirl

I hope there isn’t a petition. I think we need to accept this is the way forward, and get as many people vaccinated ASAP.

BUT......one dose is NOT being vaccinated!!! Nobody is actually vaccinated against this virus until about two or three weeks after receiving the SECOND DOSE.

This idea of single dose vaccine and twelve weeks delay is purely for government propaganda purposes, if they could not claim that anyone was actually vaccinated until they had received the second dose, it would show REAL numbers who are protected.

Franbern BUT......one dose is NOT being vaccinated!!! Nobody is actually vaccinated against this virus until about two or three weeks after receiving the SECOND DOSE.

Not true, despite your shouty capitals.
You start forming antibodies after the first dose of vaccine had been administered and this gives you some level of protection. Quite how much hasn’t been established but it is certainly better than nothing and will almost certainly protect you from severe illness and hospitalisation. By increasing the interval between doses, more people can be given partial protection and that benefits the whole population. The second dose boosts the immunity you have already developed.

Tim Harford compared it to driving on a dark night without car headlights.
If all the cars on the road have one headlight, that is safer than if half the cars have two headlights and half of them have none.

Not really sure why an analogy from Tim Harford is more important than definite opposition to this long gap from the BMC, I know which I would rather believe - but ....Heigh does that make me a WOKE as I would rather take the word of experts in the field!!!???

We are already hearing so many people complaining that they haven't even had one dose yet. Imagine how much worse it would be if thousands were left with no protection while their friends and neighbours were getting both vaccines. Imagine your mum's neighbour had had two doses and your mum had none. Then your mum catches Covid and died. I think you would struggle to honestly say you think that was the right decision. I am firmly in the camp of one dose for all is better than two doses for a few. Absolutely everybody involved is working as hard as they possibly can to make this work for the greater good of the entire populace. Nothing like this has ever been done before in the history of our country. Incredibly difficult and complex decisions have to be made and with conflicting advice coming from all sides! I am only glad I am not the one having to make them. I should think that very many sleepless nights are being had by those who have to make the ultimate decision. I think we should all just cut them some slack.

I thought Tim Harford is an economist or is there another Tim Harford?

As far as I can tell, the jury is still out amongst scientists and medics.

I guess results from Israel should tell us within a couple of weeks how many people who have been infected have become seriously ill.

No, I wouldn't struggle Lizbethann if it turns out that having just one dose has been a waste of time - and the truth is that nobody knows, whatever they claim.

Rightly or wrongly, how many on GN would refuse their first dose even if you could guarantee someone else got two?
Mind you, it would be quite easy to say that on here and still go and get a vaccine tomorrow if offered, so we’ll never know.

PS. Do you have some kind of insider knowledge?

Mollygo

Rightly or wrongly, how many on GN would refuse their first dose even if you could guarantee someone else got two?
Mind you, it would be quite easy to say that on here and still go and get a vaccine tomorrow if offered, so we’ll never know.

I would refuse my dose, if I thought it meant that everybody would be efficiently vaccinated rather than nobody being properly protected.

All it would mean to me is that I'd have to stay at home a bit longer.

Me too, even though I'm working, because the consequences of people with only some protection, the likelihood of them being called back for their second dose, and the ensuing chaos isn't worth a quick fix, in my opinion.

When the vaccine was being discussed on the news, one of the experts said that 88% of Covid deaths were people in the top 4 groups. If that is the case, wouldn't it make sense to give those people 2 jabs to give them the highest possible level of protection, rather than trying to give 1 jab to everyone?

It would mean that the rest of us would have to wait longer, but we would be waiting in descending order of risk. They could give each group 2 jabs and then move on to the next. The very young would be waiting for quite a long time but they are the least likely to be very ill or die.

I thought Tim Harford is an economist or is there another Tim Harford?

The one I was referring to is an economist who writes for the Financial Times, presents More or Less on Radio 4 and has had a recent series ‘How to Vaccinate the World’ looking at all the global issues involved in the race to protect us all from Covid.

Being an economist doesn’t preclude him from being highly intelligent, analysing data and then presenting it in ways that non-mathematicians, non-economists and non-statisticians can understand.

Analogies can be a useful way of helping people to understand complex matters.

Fair enough, but in that case there are other plenty of people without a medical or scientific or medical qualification who are highly intelligent and capable of analysing data. I doubt very much if he has seen any data which proves his point because even people who do have scientific or medical qualifications haven't seen it.

Michael Portillo did a TV series about railways but I doubt he knows much about building a steam engine.

Very long and distinguised history of building Steam Engines in OH's family- but I truly fail to see the link.

Growstuff if you bothered to listen to any of Tim Hartford’s podcasts or programmes you might not be so quick to dismiss him out of hand.

As for Michael Portillo, it’s probably not necessary to be able to build a steam engine in order to make an interesting and informative television programme about a railway journey