The jab is not a silver bullet!

I was vaccinated this week so will have some protection in two to three weeks time. I am relieved that this means that if I get Covid it should mean a couple of weeks of illness and not going into ICU and dying. This is an enormous step forward. It does not mean we can lift restrictions any time soon. The vaccine is another big step in controlling Covid along with masks and social distancing. I don't understand how anyone can think it means we can now do anything we want.

Good to see many sensible GNs here. Easy to forget we're 'Protecting the NHS' from becoming over crowded etc.

So first vaccine gives limited protection - data seems to be changing on % but from 30%to 60% so there is still a 70% or at best 40% chance of catching the virus that is now more prevalent than it was.
Despite the schools being closed to most there are still C-vid cases in children who are supported in school.
A young acquaintance who works in a care home of 24 residents has recently lost 6 due to C-vid and says she won't have the vaccine!!!

My other concern is for DD classed as ECV (extra critically vulnerable) who regularly had the flu vaccine (but does react to it however, (she carries epi-pens & extra antihistamines anyway) will not be having the C-vid vaccine because she is now pregnant & doctor advised against.
So DGD goes back to school catches virus (maybe no symptoms) brings it home to Mum.
DGD should be far more mentally damaged to lose her mother than having to adapt to the changes she has encountered over the last year. I don't think DD is a one-off off either but a significant portion of our population.

Good to see many sensible GNs here. Easy to forget we're 'Protecting the NHS' from becoming over crowded etc.

We should not have to be protecting the NHS. It is there to serve us, not the other way round.

MissAdventure

That's my thinking, too.
Little outbreaks which can be contained and dealt with; a bit like we thought it might be all that time ago.

I agree totally.

The first step is to get the infection rate down to <1:100,000, which is achievable with hard lockdown. It would mean there would still be up to 600 people in the whole country infected at any one time.

The next step is to keep it at that level. It could go either way. 600 cases could easily become 1,200; 1,200 could become 2,400 and so on. That's what started happening again in September. The other direction would see the 600 dwindling to isolated cases and outbreaks, which are jumped on.

To prevent the numbers increasing, there needs to be an efficient local test, trace, isolate and support system. Contacts of the 600 would need to be contacted and forced to isolate. In order to enforce that, they would need in some cases to be supported, which might mean financial support if they couldn't work, hotel accommodation if they lived in overcrowded accommodation, domestic support if children or vulnerable people were involved, fetching essential food shopping and medications, etc. Yes, it would mean each case would be expensive, but much cheaper in the long run, if everybody else could start getting on with their lives.

People who are seriously ill would have the best treatment available with the maximum number of staff. The vaccine would mean that very few people would be very ill anyway. The NHS could get on with clearing the backlog of other cases.

Three conditions are needed:

1 Enforcement of a hard lockdown.
2 An effective test, trace, isolate and support system.
3 Management of border controls.

GrannyRose15

^Good to see many sensible GNs here. Easy to forget we're 'Protecting the NHS' from becoming over crowded etc.^

We should not have to be protecting the NHS. It is there to serve us, not the other way round.

So where do you think the NHS could find unlimited resources?

GrannyRose15

MissAdventure

It's not me who is keeping you in!
I want everyone to be able to come and go as they please, as much as the next person.

I would say though, that surely it's worth hanging on a bit longer, now that there is an end in sight.

But the end isn't in sight. They keep changing the goal posts and have been doing so since the first lockdown.
We need these restrictions to end so that we have a chance of saving the country's economy.
Surely once those most likely to die have been vaccinated then ALL the restrictions should end. But no, we are getting rumours of having to wear masks forever and social distancing and the rule of six going on through the summer. This is madness.

No, we most definitely don't need restrictions to end until the number of cases in the community is down to a level which can be managed. That is perfectly achievable, if people didn't keep ignoring guidelines.

GrannyRose15

Calendargirl

They are never going to let us out

What rubbish! Do you really think the government want us to stay like this forever? Of course not! I’m sure they want things back to normal as soon as possible, but it will take time, even with the vaccine.

Yes I do! I don't know why, but it is in someone's interest to keep us all out of circulation as long as possible. I'm not sure who either. But one thing I am sure of is that not all of this is to do with covid 19

Why are you so sure?

Lockdown is all about protecting the NHS from becoming overwhelmed with dying patients all at once and bodies blocking mortuarys and funerals being backed up.

Why do some people still not understand this?

I had my first vaccination a week later than my friend who lives in another town.
She rang me last week excited that her three weeks waiting for the vaccine to ‘kick in’ were over and said how great it would be in another week when mine would be activated and I could go to her’s for a coffee.
I’m afraid I just went very quiet, until she said that of course it was depending on if we were allowed.
I have a feeling she will see her other friend anyway, as this friend has not abided by the rules throughout, by having visits from her three daughters and families.
It’s absolutely ridiculous.
I’m so sick of intelligent people who will not understand or follow the rules.

When even more people are vaccinated, I think it will just be a green light to many to think things are normal.

I’m thinking of a neighbour, with two adult daughters with four children between them, all living close to each other. Said neighbour has an elderly widowed mother, also nearby.

I’m pretty sure lockdowns have made little difference to how they all meet up in their homes and get together. Granted she was probably in a bubble with her mother, but know for a fact she is often with one daughter or another.

She and her husband, in their 60’s, will see the vaccine as a total green light to normality.

Buffybee

I had my first vaccination a week later than my friend who lives in another town.
She rang me last week excited that her three weeks waiting for the vaccine to ‘kick in’ were over and said how great it would be in another week when mine would be activated and I could go to her’s for a coffee.
I’m afraid I just went very quiet, until she said that of course it was depending on if we were allowed.
I have a feeling she will see her other friend anyway, as this friend has not abided by the rules throughout, by having visits from her three daughters and families.
It’s absolutely ridiculous.
I’m so sick of intelligent people who will not understand or follow the rules.

I don’t think I would have gone ‘very quiet’. I would have said that no way was the first dose of vaccine a green light to meeting up again, and even if the government suddenly ‘allowed’ it, which they won’t, I would still be following the social distancing and no meet ups.

The scientists and politicians do not have a crystal ball to see into the future. Scientists are making educated guesses based on what they do know. Therefore they cannot give definitive dates about lockdown ending and guidelines changing.
As regards the vaccinations we also are making educated (some not so educated) on the decisions we make in our own lives based on the information given. I don’t expect to be an expert on viruses and vaccines but I can read the leaflets and public advice and make my own informed choice on my actions.
That said I will continue to wear a mask in public and social distance but now DH and I are both 3 weeks plus post vaccination I feel able to give him a cuddle again. I am a nurse, he is 76 with heart disease and we have kept apart for weeks since the increase in infections. We know there is still a risk of transmission but will take the reduced risk for the sake of our mental health and marriage

lemsip

Lockdown is all about protecting the NHS from becoming overwhelmed with dying patients all at once and bodies blocking mortuarys and funerals being backed up.

Why do some people still not understand this?

Because the NHS has been made into a new religion to be protected at all costs. We have forgotten what it supposed to be for.

I agree that at the beginning we wanted to avoid the scenes we had seen in Italy with people lying on the floor for want of beds, But it is a long time since that was even a possibility. Hospitals come close to capacity every year and some have to close to new patients. This year is no different. If we continue with this ridiculous notion that we should protect the NHS, we will end up with lockdown every winter from now on instead of recognising that the NHS as it stands is not fit for purpose and should be reorganised as a priority.

I’m so sick of intelligent people who will not understand or follow the rules.

Maybe it has something to do with their intelligence.

Dwmxwg

The scientists and politicians do not have a crystal ball to see into the future. Scientists are making educated guesses based on what they do know. Therefore they cannot give definitive dates about lockdown ending and guidelines changing.
As regards the vaccinations we also are making educated (some not so educated) on the decisions we make in our own lives based on the information given. I don’t expect to be an expert on viruses and vaccines but I can read the leaflets and public advice and make my own informed choice on my actions.
That said I will continue to wear a mask in public and social distance but now DH and I are both 3 weeks plus post vaccination I feel able to give him a cuddle again. I am a nurse, he is 76 with heart disease and we have kept apart for weeks since the increase in infections. We know there is still a risk of transmission but will take the reduced risk for the sake of our mental health and marriage

Following the science does not mean making educated guesses. If that's what they are doing then we need them all to stop now and give us our lives back.

It seems that the jury's still out on exactly how effective the vaccines are. There will be, of course, a percentage of people who are not protected by it.

Whats really worrying, I think, is the fact that a third of social care workers are (as yet) unvaccinated - along with a large proportion of hospital workers!

www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-seven-coronavirus-variants-identified-in-the-us/

Hetty58

It seems that the jury's still out on exactly how effective the vaccines are. There will be, of course, a percentage of people who are not protected by it.

Whats really worrying, I think, is the fact that a third of social care workers are (as yet) unvaccinated - along with a large proportion of hospital workers!

www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-seven-coronavirus-variants-identified-in-the-us/

But these will probably be very young people to whom the virus poses no threat.

Or they may be people who had already had the virus.

We do not need to vaccinate everyone, we only need to vaccinate those that have a high chance of dying from the disease.

As this has largely been done by now (21st February) there is no longer any need to keep us all locked in our homes.

Why do you continue to ignore the facts GrannyRose?

Hundreds of people under 70 are still dying every week from Covid-19 and others are developing life-changing Long Covid.

Not only that, but it is not true that those at higher risk of dying have been vaccinated by 21 February. Most people in Groups 5 and 6 (nearly 10 million people) haven't been vaccinated yet and it is recognised that risk starts to increase at age 50, regardless of underlying health issues.

Furthermore, If it does turn out to be true that vaccinations reduce transmission, there is a very real chance that the disease can be eradicated or, at least, brought down to the level where isolated outbreaks could be dealt with.

The virus will never be eradicated. It is you that are ignoring the facts.

But these will probably be very young people to whom the virus poses no threat.

Try telling that to the young, fit, healthy people who have already died from Covid 19.

GrannyRose15

Hetty58

It seems that the jury's still out on exactly how effective the vaccines are. There will be, of course, a percentage of people who are not protected by it.

Whats really worrying, I think, is the fact that a third of social care workers are (as yet) unvaccinated - along with a large proportion of hospital workers!

www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-seven-coronavirus-variants-identified-in-the-us/

But these will probably be very young people to whom the virus poses no threat.

Or they may be people who had already had the virus.

We do not need to vaccinate everyone, we only need to vaccinate those that have a high chance of dying from the disease.

As this has largely been done by now (21st February) there is no longer any need to keep us all locked in our homes.

Young people HAVE died from the virus.

How do you KNOW who has a high chance of dying? Deaths have occurred in all age ranges.

How do you KNOW who has a high chance of dying? Deaths have occurred in all age ranges.

I know because of the statistics. Just because some people in all age groups have died doesn't mean that young people have a high chance of dying.

But that wasn't actually the point I was trying to make.

My point in answer to Hetty58's comment was that some of the care workers who have not been vaccinated were probably young people who had assessed their own risk of being seriously affected by the virus. Hopefully based on their own understanding of the statistics.

This is why I do not think it as worrying as she does that 1/3 of such workers have not had the vaccine.