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New infections - 100000 per day?

(209 Posts)
Daisymae Wed 07-Jul-21 08:16:03

Javid said this was a possibility by August. This could equate to 5000 cases of long Covid per day too. I'm thinking that should this be correct that many people will restrict their own interaction with others therefore adversely affect the economy and all that goes with it. Removing all restrictions so quickly could backfire. That's without a new variant of concern thrown into the mix. Would this level of contagion affect your behaviour??

kissngate Wed 07-Jul-21 19:01:21

Sorry to put a damper on some of you but hospital cases are rising. I mentioned in a thread last week that my sons hospital had three wards full of Covid cases and it's now four. Some have received both jabs. BJ is wrong to lift restrictions from the 19th all it will do is put extra pressure on NHS staff and other essential operations will be cancelled once again. Also reading the government data some of the new cases aren't false positive as lateral flow results are not added to the overall figure. I do agree we probably test far more than other countries particularly school children. I think the question to ask BJ is how are other countries managing to control the new variant far better than us.

Shelflife Wed 07-Jul-21 19:06:01

MissChateline, you are a very lucky person and I sincerely hope you continue to remain so fit and healthy.

Casdon Wed 07-Jul-21 19:08:40

I saw that kissngate, there were 416 Covid admissions in England yesterday, which is the highest rate since March.

The World Health Organisation said it is a very risky strategy to lift restrictions when the rate is rising so rapidly.

MissChateline Wed 07-Jul-21 19:10:51

Thank you. I fully intend to. It takes motivation and some hard work.

Alegrias1 Wed 07-Jul-21 19:18:41

In the interests of full disclosure, wink I've copied this from a post made by Baggs a few days ago and only commented on by about 3 people.

Casdon Wed 07-Jul-21 19:34:34

Hospital admissions and deaths aren’t the same thing though Alegrias1?

Alegrias1 Wed 07-Jul-21 20:16:22

Yes, agreed Casdon.

But I do think it's an interesting view of things. I wonder if something similar exists for hospital admissions?

Casdon Wed 07-Jul-21 20:35:56

I haven’t seen anything comparable to the graph shown on admissions, but it’s more complicated because of the carve out of beds for other essential services, which I’m sure they will try the very best to ensure aren’t impacted. An average district general hospital probably has about 150 medical beds without encroaching on other wards for surgical, orthopaedics, gynaecology etc. particularly as they are trying to address the elective backlog as well, so 450 admissions equates to the total medical bed allocation for three hospitals, pushing that number of other medical admissions into other beds, often resulting in moving the ‘take’ to other hospitals to keep patients safe, which then compromises their beds as well.

It would be manageable if the covid admissions are dispersed throughout the UK, but that isn’t the case, some hospitals are already in trouble, particularly in the North West of England as I understand it.

SueDonim Wed 07-Jul-21 20:41:12

My dd told me that lots of their Covid cases are people who came in with other conditions and then test positive for Covid. They haven’t been admitted because of Covid.

They’ve also got staff shortages due to people being pinged and having to isolate.

Alegrias1 Wed 07-Jul-21 20:50:47

I think the staff shortage is causing problems in Raigmore in Inverness Sue, Casdon. They have comparatively few Covid cases but large numbers of staff are self isolating.

I paid attention because that was the hospital I was born in when it was basically just a collection of Nissen huts shock

Casdon Wed 07-Jul-21 21:05:35

The 416 I quoted for England were admissions not in hospital infections SueDomin, but in hospital infections are a huge problem because most hospitals don’t have single en suite rooms, so isolating patients with covid is a nightmare.

I can believe that the test and trace requirements for staff to isolate will cause lots of staff shortages like you describe happening Alegrias1, if the estimates are correct and the infection rate goes up to 50,000 a day, and each one of those infects the average 3 others then the next month could be very difficult indeed for the NHS.

Shirlb Thu 08-Jul-21 10:38:12

‘Could’ don’t worry about it ?

Brownowl564 Thu 08-Jul-21 10:41:15

Franbern, totally disagree, the virus has been spread by a lot of people not bothering with adhering to any restrictions, not wearing masks etc and a lot of those are younger with total disregard for anyone and they have plenty of time to make up for any slight inconvenience, older people may not

winterwhite Thu 08-Jul-21 10:42:48

If as we hear something like 80% of adults are estimated to have antibodies, where will 100,000 new cases a day come from, and for how long? Esp as the -30s get their 2nd jabs in a few weeks.

I believe there are areas that still have a high degree of 'vaccine hesitancy'. I think I'd support measures to make vaccination mandatory for those in full health. Reluctant to think this, but I do if the alternative is increasing fear of the virus and those at v low risk in effect shutting the economy down by continuing using to stay at home.

leeds22 Thu 08-Jul-21 10:45:01

Several pubs around us are shut due to staff having to isolate. I intend cramming as much into protected life before so called Freedom Day, then be very wary until I see how this stupid experiment goes. Particularly looking forward to getting out on Sunday afternoon when most will be watching the tv.

Alegrias1 Thu 08-Jul-21 10:45:02

Interesting stats on hospital admissions/patients, as we were discussing last night.

Disclaimer: I know that this doesn't impact on the staff shortages due to isolation.

Alegrias1 Thu 08-Jul-21 10:46:59


If as we hear something like 80% of adults are estimated to have antibodies, where will 100,000 new cases a day come from, and for how long? Esp as the -30s get their 2nd jabs in a few weeks.

I believe there are areas that still have a high degree of 'vaccine hesitancy'. I think I'd support measures to make vaccination mandatory for those in full health. Reluctant to think this, but I do if the alternative is increasing fear of the virus and those at v low risk in effect shutting the economy down by continuing using to stay at home.

People with antibodies could still be in the 100,000, they might not be ill or very ill but they might still test positive.

I think. Happy to be corrected if somebody thinks different.

ALANaV Thu 08-Jul-21 10:51:01

NO absolutely will not change my behaviour .....I have continued to go whereever is open and I can get in !! I have to use public transport as since I returned from living in the EU for 21 years (thanks, Brexit !!) my UK licence was changed from UK to Spanish, then to French ...and the hassle at 73 to change it back is too much bother ! I have taken EVERY holiday in the few weeks when lifting of lockdown happened last year .....I have had so many holidays cancelled and desperate to get away ....suppose to be going back to Menorca, where I used to live, in a couple of weeks time although I am still going out every day for coffee, lunch or tea, I never stopped going out ever day from the start - I am being careful NOT to go anywhere inside as the NHS App is a pain in the neck ...doesn't work, anyway ! Friends and I went a while ago to a restaurant, I signed in the NHS App....they did their contact details in writing ..(we know where it was as the local press reported it and it was closed down for a few weeks)...I was told to isolate for 5 days ...they were told NOTHING ....fantastic, or what !!!! another person I know went to a sporting event with friends....HE was told to isolate as he was the only one using the App..his friends were not what's the point !! Wasting so much time, money, effects on the economy and people's lives it is a disaster ......I have more holidays booked this year (some even cancelled from late 2019 !) I AM GOING if I am still alive ....we simply have to learn to live with it as we have many viruses down the centuries otherwise there would be no one left if we all panicked and believed the propaganda issue daily by Doris ..........angry

LondonMzFitz Thu 08-Jul-21 10:55:51

I don't have the option of staying home/staying safe. We've been instructed to be back to the office (London Bridge) on 26 July 2021. I take medication that supresses my immune system and was on the NHS shielding list through the pandemic, now I'm double jabbed I'm expected to get on my usually crowded tube train in the rush hour. To say I'm apprehensive is to downplay my feelings. I went into the office yesterday - still not taking the tube, I'm lucky I have an overground train I can use - and that was very much busier than it has been in recent weeks both going in and coming home. Lots of people without masks on the train, and at London Bridge station on the platforms. I mean, probably 50%.

I had volunteered in 2019 to steward the Euro's at Wembley (I'm very local to the Stadium). I decided to cancel that in December when I was contacted again, convinced it wouldn't be secure enough. Drove past Wembley Stadium at 10pm last night to pick my son up from the station and the streets around were full of people!

Jang Thu 08-Jul-21 10:57:13

Well said MissChateline, agree with you. I for one cannot wait for freedom day when maybe, just maybe I won't be made to feel like a walking bio hazard and not a human being.

Aepgirl Thu 08-Jul-21 10:58:50

Yes, Marydoll, we must all continue to take care of ourselves and others.

Theoddbird Thu 08-Jul-21 10:59:12

If restrictions were bot lifted there would be a discussion on here complaining about it. Damned if they do, damned if they don't. I rarely hear any positivity here....

Germanshepherdsmum Thu 08-Jul-21 10:59:12

Miss Chatelaine, may I say your posts seem to be all about you and your wife. You are very fortunate to be healthy and I hope you remain so but please don’t think it’s all down to motivation and hard work as you suggest. Luck plays a big part too. I have had asthma since childhood and have therefore feared catching Covid as I don’t think it would go too well for me, and there will be vast numbers of people with that and other conditions not of their own making and not cured by exercise and healthy eating. I have had both vaccinations but can still catch Covid and you can still spread it.

Please think of others and don’t be so selfish. I hope none of those tradespeople you so loved having around whilst the rest of us were trying to keep well away from others caught or spread Covid.

Jillybird Thu 08-Jul-21 10:59:47

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Mincub Thu 08-Jul-21 11:06:23

UK inquiry findings

In the UK an independent examination of the pandemic, yesterday accused the UK government of ignoring the pandemic at the outset.

The People’s COVID Inquiry has been hearing from doctors and experts for several months and yesterday it joined calls for an independent judicial inquiry as it set out some preliminary findings.

The inquiry said there was “still time” for a coherent policy to end community transmission of the virus without implementing nationwide lockdown.

It called for the UK to implement urgently established public health measures, including enforcing the wearing of masks and social distancing in indoor spaces.

It supported test, trace and isolation with economic support for quarantining.

Chair Michael Mansfield QC said: "For four months we have been hearing from the bereaved and from leading world experts, for four months we have got on with the job the Prime Minister has declined and which he has no real intention of carrying out.

“The pandemic has uncovered a government unfit for purpose and at the same time a democratic deficiency in which there is no accountability (even when caught on camera) until shamed by public demand. Otherwise, pandemic policy cannot be effectively challenged.”