Chris Whitty - another lockdown

"Zero Covid" is not about eliminating Covid like smallpox has been eradicated. It's about having very few community cases, as New Zealand has. When an outbreak occurs (which has happened) the authorities can jump on it with warp speed and stop it becoming endemic. The UK has probably left it too late for that, but we don't have to accept that "we have to live with it".

No GrannyGravy I really really don't want to catch Covid. That's why I've accepted a life which, according to you, is boring. I'm not happy to take unnecessary risks and am adult enough to know that means I can't do some of the things I'd like to do, but it really gets up my nose that so many people really couldn't care less that their irresponsible "freedom day" means less freedom for other people.

I have to say I’m with Alegrias on this. We cannot take headline statistics and stories at face value, there is so very much more to the analysis than that. Unless we understand the full picture we really shouldn’t be making decisions based on a modicum of incomplete information.
Simple maths alone can put some figures into perspective - I’ve quoted Scottish figures because that is where I live.

Covid figures for yesterday:
Cases: 2817 = 0.00042127% of population
Hospital: 517 = 0.000094% of population
Deaths: 4 = 0.0000073% of population
Very, very tiny percentages

In comparison, app 18 people die per day from cardiovascular problems and 16 from cancer.

If you look at our nearest neighbours France, Belgium, Netherlands and Ireland
the cumulative Covid death toll in all 4 countries is higher than UK over past 4 months. The UK has also shown negative excess mortality over past 3 months.

For every 1 million people in UK we are testing 3.3 million - way in excess of most other countries. If testing was less, minor infections would probably be interpreted as a summer cold and pass unremarked.

Our PCR tests are also set to 40 cycles (norm is usually around 25) and it has been recognised that positive tests with a high cycle threshold may be detecting very small amounts of viral genetic material or “non viable fragments” rather than active virus.

So it would appear that we’re over testing at a very high standard resulting in more possible cases being identified and leading to sone inappropriate anxiety levels.

All is not as it seems on the surface so rushing to judgment may not be the best course of action.

Nobody can catch cancer or cardio problems, though.

They can increase their risk factors though. Smoking, exposure to chemicals, dust (asbestosis, mesothelioma,miners’ lung, psittacosis etc) poor diet, obesity, lack of exercise. Living is a risky business.

What is being compared is not Covid v cancer/cardiac, it it Covid detection in this country vs Covid detection in other countries. The more you test, and the more sensitive the tests, the more you detect, so the higher your detection rate. Didn't I hear that Trump didn't want tests, because they would find cases? Or was that apocryphal?wwww .

"Living is a risky business." and life is a terminal illness. None of us are going to get out of here alive.

I've no idea where that wwww came from.

growstuff

"Zero Covid" is not about eliminating Covid like smallpox has been eradicated. It's about having very few community cases, as New Zealand has. When an outbreak occurs (which has happened) the authorities can jump on it with warp speed and stop it becoming endemic. The UK has probably left it too late for that, but we don't have to accept that "we have to live with it".

No GrannyGravy I really really don't want to catch Covid. That's why I've accepted a life which, according to you, is boring. I'm not happy to take unnecessary risks and am adult enough to know that means I can't do some of the things I'd like to do, but it really gets up my nose that so many people really couldn't care less that their irresponsible "freedom day" means less freedom for other people.

growstuff I have never posted that your life or anyone else’s life for that matter is boring.

Please do not post lies about me.

MayBee70

I don’t see why we can’t aim for zero covid. SARS1 has been eliminated. Why should we just accept that we just have to live with it when other diseases have been wiped out? I’m supposed to be the worlds biggest pessimist but surely we have the means to do this?

SARS was not easily transmissible, making it much easier to contain. It did have a higher death rate but only a few thousand people were diagnosed with SARS worldwide.

GrannyGravy13

growstuff

"Zero Covid" is not about eliminating Covid like smallpox has been eradicated. It's about having very few community cases, as New Zealand has. When an outbreak occurs (which has happened) the authorities can jump on it with warp speed and stop it becoming endemic. The UK has probably left it too late for that, but we don't have to accept that "we have to live with it".

No GrannyGravy I really really don't want to catch Covid. That's why I've accepted a life which, according to you, is boring. I'm not happy to take unnecessary risks and am adult enough to know that means I can't do some of the things I'd like to do, but it really gets up my nose that so many people really couldn't care less that their irresponsible "freedom day" means less freedom for other people.

growstuff I have never posted that your life or anyone else’s life for that matter is boring.

Please do not post lies about me.

Yes, you have.

Katek I'm not rushing to any judgment. I trust facts.

When growstuff ?

Katek

They can increase their risk factors though. Smoking, exposure to chemicals, dust (asbestosis, mesothelioma,miners’ lung, psittacosis etc) poor diet, obesity, lack of exercise. Living is a risky business.

Heredity is very likely too, as we find out more and more about these diseases and find that more people carry a syndrome or genetic disorder than we realised.

We may find out one day that genetic factors play a part in how different people react to the Covid virus.

Elegran

^"Living is a risky business."^ and life is a terminal illness. None of us are going to get out of here alive.

True, but I'd like a bit longer on my lease.

Having been in an ambulance and believing I wouldn't make it to hospital (seriously) I wasn't scared of death, but it changed my outlook on the life I have left. If you want to call it a day, that's up to you, but don't assume everybody wants the same.

Callistemon

Katek

They can increase their risk factors though. Smoking, exposure to chemicals, dust (asbestosis, mesothelioma,miners’ lung, psittacosis etc) poor diet, obesity, lack of exercise. Living is a risky business.

Heredity is very likely too, as we find out more and more about these diseases and find that more people carry a syndrome or genetic disorder than we realised.

We may find out one day that genetic factors play a part in how different people react to the Covid virus.

It's possible, but at the moment the biggest risk factor is being in close proximity to an infected person and that's avoidable.

GrannyGravy13

When growstuff ?

A couple of weeks ago.

hrowstuff I do not think I did, but if you can find the post, I would be grateful.

"Zero Covid" is not about eliminating Covid like smallpox has been eradicated. It's about having very few community cases, as New Zealand has. When an outbreak occurs (which has happened) the authorities can jump on it with warp speed and stop it becoming endemic. The UK has probably left it too late for that, but we don't have to accept that "we have to live with it".

growstuff I don't know how long this policy will continue to work as I think the general consensus is that Covid is not going away whatever measures we take. I am concerned that Australia and New Zealand will find that their lockdown policies may be in vain in the end, especially since the vaccination programme in Australia in particular is not at all successful.

GrannyGravy13

hrowstuff I do not think I did, but if you can find the post, I would be grateful.

I'm too busy having a nice time (walk, dinner, film, ... with someone very special). Maybe when I have nothing better to do.

MayBee70

I don’t see why we can’t aim for zero covid. SARS1 has been eliminated. Why should we just accept that we just have to live with it when other diseases have been wiped out? I’m supposed to be the worlds biggest pessimist but surely we have the means to do this?

The only human disease that has ever been ‘wiped out’ entirely is smallpox. Even that is a moot point because there are still samples of the virus in laboratories. Eradication is a very difficult thing to achieve. In animals, only rinderpest has been eradicated but ,like smallpox it still exists in labs.

I think what I’m trying to say is we’re being brainwashed into thinking that a certain amount of death or long term illness is acceptable.

Me too, growstuff "True, but I'd like a bit longer on my lease."

We have been dodging accident and disease since we were old enough to recognise that our parents were not just being bossy when they told us not to do X or Y. For some reason, that built-in (or maybe drummed-in) caution is now regarded by some as an irrational fear. If, as is likely, this disease is going to become an endemic part of our future lives, then we have to relearn the caution that seems to have been forgotten in this age of "a pill for everything" and "the government should be doing something about it". The NHS is committed to looking after us if/when we get ill, but avoiding infection is up the individual. Restrictions being eased doesn't make it obligatory to ignore sensible precautions.

MayBee70

I think what I’m trying to say is we’re being brainwashed into thinking that a certain amount of death or long term illness is acceptable.

I think we may have come to believe that we can all live until out 90s or 100s with the miracles of medical science and that life expectancy should always increase.

It is simply not feasible.

I’m not just thinking about old age. I’m thinking that it’s becoming acceptable that people with co morbidities and younger people will die or suffer long term illness.

Just remind me how many people have died in New Zealand and Australia.