Chris Whitty - another lockdown

I have to say I’m with Alegrias on this. We cannot take headline statistics and stories at face value, there is so very much more to the analysis than that. Unless we understand the full picture we really shouldn’t be making decisions based on a modicum of incomplete information.
Simple maths alone can put some figures into perspective - I’ve quoted Scottish figures because that is where I live.

Covid figures for yesterday:
Cases: 2817 = 0.00042127% of population
Hospital: 517 = 0.000094% of population
Deaths: 4 = 0.0000073% of population
Very, very tiny percentages

In comparison, app 18 people die per day from cardiovascular problems and 16 from cancer.

If you look at our nearest neighbours France, Belgium, Netherlands and Ireland
the cumulative Covid death toll in all 4 countries is higher than UK over past 4 months. The UK has also shown negative excess mortality over past 3 months.

For every 1 million people in UK we are testing 3.3 million - way in excess of most other countries. If testing was less, minor infections would probably be interpreted as a summer cold and pass unremarked.

Our PCR tests are also set to 40 cycles (norm is usually around 25) and it has been recognised that positive tests with a high cycle threshold may be detecting very small amounts of viral genetic material or “non viable fragments” rather than active virus.

So it would appear that we’re over testing at a very high standard resulting in more possible cases being identified and leading to sone inappropriate anxiety levels.

All is not as it seems on the surface so rushing to judgment may not be the best course of action.

"Zero Covid" is not about eliminating Covid like smallpox has been eradicated. It's about having very few community cases, as New Zealand has. When an outbreak occurs (which has happened) the authorities can jump on it with warp speed and stop it becoming endemic. The UK has probably left it too late for that, but we don't have to accept that "we have to live with it".

No GrannyGravy I really really don't want to catch Covid. That's why I've accepted a life which, according to you, is boring. I'm not happy to take unnecessary risks and am adult enough to know that means I can't do some of the things I'd like to do, but it really gets up my nose that so many people really couldn't care less that their irresponsible "freedom day" means less freedom for other people.

I don’t see why we can’t aim for zero covid. SARS1 has been eliminated. Why should we just accept that we just have to live with it when other diseases have been wiped out? I’m supposed to be the worlds biggest pessimist but surely we have the means to do this?

growstuff I am asthmatic with other health problems, I do not want to catch Covid, in fact I am sure that nobody wants/wanted to catch Covid.

I was listening to a professor of epidemiology and a Dr, also part of PHE (or whatever it’s current name is) and they agreed that reaching Zero Covid is never going to happen.

JCVI are still not recommending 12-18’s to be vaccinated, although they are rolling out the flu nasal spray to all under 16’s this Autumn.

Yes, they do seem to be preventing deaths, which is fab, but as Maybee pointed out on another thread, younger people haven't been vaccinated and it's inevitable there will be many cases of long Covid, which we really shouldn't underestimate.

From a personal point of view, I really really don't want to catch it at all, for all sorts of reasons. I'm prepared to be inconvenienced, but I don't accept that I (and others like me) should have to face unnecessary risk.

Jan/21 50K cases 1280 deaths
Jul/21 50K cases 49 deaths

The vaccines do appear to be helping with severe cases and mortality rates.

Itsawelshthing

I don't understand, if vaccines are so effective then why such a massive rise in covid cases? This whole thing is starting to really smell funny.

Here's your answer:

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1416350408344223748.html

It doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but in summary the vaccines we currently have aren't that effective against new variants. The delta variant is more transmissible as a result of certain mutations and more virus particles are produced.

Slowing down the emergence of mutations is one reason for trying all we can to keep cases low.

I’m saying that you say you disagree with the 19th but do everything possible to discredit the scientists that also disagree with opening up. And that confuses me which is why I asked you if you agreed with it as you’d written so much stuff saying the scientists weren’t epidemiologists therefore we shouldn’t listen to them.

If this was the real world and we were having a face to face conversation it would be as if you were saying one thing but your body language would be saying the complete opposite.

Are you suggesting I'm lying?

growstuff

Itsawelshthing

I don't understand, if vaccines are so effective then why such a massive rise in covid cases? This whole thing is starting to really smell funny.

Over 50% of the new cases are in 10-29 year olds. Although people over 18 have now been offered vaccination, very few of them have had the time to have two doses, so aren't fully vaccinated. One dose does not give full protection. Under 18s aren't being vaccinated. In any case, vaccination does not stop people from being infected.

However effective a vaccine is, there is a percentage that isn't. But we knew this; nothing has changed. My daughter told me this evening that two people from her company are in hospital with Covid. Both of them have been double vaccinated.

This is not our biggest worry. People are now going to have to isolate for a fortnight if they are coming back from France. This is because of the fast rise of the Beta variant in France. It seems to be the case that the Pfizer vaccine is less effective against the variant first detected in South Africa variant although this doesn't mean the vaccine won't offer some protection.

Dr Johns latest blog has some figures from Israel and it sounds as though people are pretty safe from being hospitalised 21 days after the second vaccine and the people that are still very ill with the virus are those with co morbidities. I just wish we could keep being careful until the majority of younger people have been vaccinated. At one time it was all about protecting the old and the sick. Now it should be about protecting the young. I always thought that the virus would have been taken more seriously at the beginning if it was affecting younger people but I guess I’m wrong about that because they aren’t being protected now. And if the over 12’s aren’t being vaccinated we must get the infection rate right down before they go back to school in September. Am I right in thinking this?

Why does it really smell funny?

Itsawelshthing

I don't understand, if vaccines are so effective then why such a massive rise in covid cases? This whole thing is starting to really smell funny.

Over 50% of the new cases are in 10-29 year olds. Although people over 18 have now been offered vaccination, very few of them have had the time to have two doses, so aren't fully vaccinated. One dose does not give full protection. Under 18s aren't being vaccinated. In any case, vaccination does not stop people from being infected.

I don't understand, if vaccines are so effective then why such a massive rise in covid cases? This whole thing is starting to really smell funny.

My apologies Alegrias1 but I hadn't read that one. Looking at it I would have taken it as a joke.

PippaZ you do know my 17:01 post was sarcasm, right?

Alegrias1

Anybody who actually takes the time to read my posts will see that I haven't been looking for flaws in the evidence. What I object to is
. The tendency for exaggeration that leads to the use of such terms as "genocide" which are inflammatory and incorrect, just like throwing into the mix that Covid shrinks children's brains or that the vaccines are not good enough. This does not increase people's understanding, it contributes to an environment of fear
. I seriously object to unaccountable groups of people (i.e. indy SAGE) pretending they have all the answers when they don't have to justify them to anybody
. I object to the use of language that suggests things are more important than they are. Today's meeting wasn't a summit; they are using that word to make people think its a worldwide discussion meeting of interested parties. It was a Zoom call of people who share the same ideas.

The last thing we need right now is alarm and that's what we're getting. I object to them, nobody is obliged to agree with me.

1) Independent SAGE does not "pretend" that they have all the answers. They just put their point of view forward

2) The language you object to may well reflect the importance others put on the point they are making. You may not agree but "object"? On GN we are all equal.

3) Where and how were you educated by the way? You have made such a secret of the source of your much flaunted "superior knowledge" that I am sure we would all like to know. (I'm expecting Oxbridge after the huge build-up)

4) Today's meeting was a group of people who know a great deal more than many if not all of us do. It's great that they shared it.

5) If other members are alarmed by this Prime Minister's choices they are entitled to point out how they feel and why. You cannot limit that just because you "object". You can put a counter argument, of course.

MayBee70

MerylStreep

MayBee70
From what I’ve seen of your posts you’ve hung onto every utterance from Chris Whitty. Now he’s saying what you don’t want to hear so you’ve gone off him
How shallow.

I’m a lot of thing. A worrier. Quite neurotic. Not as clever/knowledgeable as a lot of people that write on the political/scientific threads and I know it. However what I am NOT is shallow or two faced and I take great exception to that comment.

MerylStreep made a wholly personal attack MayBee so we can see she actually has nothing to say.

Her post needs deleting or, if she has anything about her, she would ask for it to be removed.

Alegrias1

This is what we've come to. Anybody who dares question the worst case scenario gets called a denier and accused of not understanding the science and ignoring the facts.

Whatever.

Indeed. Whatever!

It's a realistic scenario. Personally, I'd like my government to do what it can to prevent it happening in the first place and to make preparations if it does, rather than brushing it all off as collateral.

MerylStreep

MayBee70
From what I’ve seen of your posts you’ve hung onto every utterance from Chris Whitty. Now he’s saying what you don’t want to hear so you’ve gone off him
How shallow.

I’m a lot of thing. A worrier. Quite neurotic. Not as clever/knowledgeable as a lot of people that write on the political/scientific threads and I know it. However what I am NOT is shallow or two faced and I take great exception to that comment.

This is what we've come to. Anybody who dares question the worst case scenario gets called a denier and accused of not understanding the science and ignoring the facts.

Whatever.

Alegrias1

Anybody who actually takes the time to read my posts will see that I haven't been looking for flaws in the evidence. What I object to is
. The tendency for exaggeration that leads to the use of such terms as "genocide" which are inflammatory and incorrect, just like throwing into the mix that Covid shrinks children's brains or that the vaccines are not good enough. This does not increase people's understanding, it contributes to an environment of fear
. I seriously object to unaccountable groups of people (i.e. indy SAGE) pretending they have all the answers when they don't have to justify them to anybody
. I object to the use of language that suggests things are more important than they are. Today's meeting wasn't a summit; they are using that word to make people think its a worldwide discussion meeting of interested parties. It was a Zoom call of people who share the same ideas.

The last thing we need right now is alarm and that's what we're getting. I object to them, nobody is obliged to agree with me.

Well, it was certainly worldwide. Doesn’t it concern you that people from other countries ( including Israel where restrictions were lifted after a successful vaccination programme but infection rates are now going up again) are looking in in horror as Johnson goes for herd immunity by letting infection rip through the younger generation. You say you don’t agree with opening up but then accuse people who warn against the dangers of doing so of being alarmist. If this was the real world and we were having a face to face conversation it would be as if you were saying one thing but your body language would be saying the complete opposite.

So glad you agree that people aren't obliged to agree with you. I prefer the facts and the science. So far, the overwhelming majority of "fake news" is by people who really don't seem to understand how damaging Covid can be and what the long term consequences will be, if there are hundreds of thousands of people with life-changing conditions. The point is they are avoidable, but only if people are aware of the reality.

Alegrias Covid can and does affect all major organs, including the brain. It is no exaggeration to claim that it "shrinks the brain" if it destroys part of it and if that damage is irreversible, which in some cases it could be.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01693-6

(There are other references, but that just happened to be the first link I found. Research is ongoing on the mechanism(s) involved.)

Can you please find a post where I’ve hung onto every word spoken by Chris Whitty. I think you’re mistaking him with DrJohn Campbell whose daily blog I do read and often quote (albeit not always agreeing with him.). I have pointed out in the past that it was Chris Whitty that stopped testing and tracing last spring because the virus had already escaped into the community. I’ve also pointed out that JVT (who I have more respect for because of the stance he took re Cummings) advised against the wearing of masks last year which annoyed me. If I find the time I’ll try to find these examples of me hanging onto Chris Whittys every word and if you have nothing better to do maybe you could find some as well. Oh, and if you seem to think I’m some sort of sad curtain twitcher hiding in my house for 18 months I actually live 5 minutes walk away from a most glorious beach so why should I go looking for crowded virus laden places when I can walk my dog and gaze at the beauty of nature.