Chris Whitty - another lockdown

And yet…. Forget masks because of our liberty ..oh and our glasses misting up and feeling a bit hot when we spend hours shopping.
And yet…. Full capacity crowds at sporting events.

So for cases to drop then we must assume that the R is below 1.

That 0.5 makes a massive estimated error doesn’t it?

If cases are set to double how does that work?

You know this isn’t panic

This is bloody annoyance at a government who continually gets it wrong for all the wrong reasons.

Johnson said right in the beginning that if the R rate went over 1, then we were in trouble.
I appreciate we now have vast numbers vaccinated, but there are other factors at play now, such as the spread in schools.

So what's to do? Open up the economy and give people freedom of choice (we are supposed to be a free country with free will), or restrict the whole population to everlasting restrictions because virus mutations mean constant re-infections. Or yo-yo between the two. Perhaps we should have a referendum.

It would have been easier to put the brakes on for a while, just as it would have been the last time, and the time before.

Alegrias1

I think it's time for us all to start running around with our hands in the air again isn't it?

The media has so much to answer for.

Just one thing to say....the R rate in Scotland has been between 1.3 and 1.5 for about 3 weeks. Cases are going down.

Stop panicking.

Case rates are falling in Scotland and some parts of Wales, but they are rising from an already high baseline in every part of England. If most other countries had those rates, people would already be locked up in their homes.

NfkDumpling

So what's to do? Open up the economy and give people freedom of choice (we are supposed to be a free country with free will), or restrict the whole population to everlasting restrictions because virus mutations mean constant re-infections. Or yo-yo between the two. Perhaps we should have a referendum.

Most of the economy is already opened up. Mask wearing, social distancing and other mitigations don't prevent that.

I don't know whether people are aware, but cases in English schools will no longer require contacts to self-isolate. This is a deliberate attempt to let children and their families be infected. It is also looking very likely that there will be no doses to vaccinate them.

The R rate for England on 9 July was between 1.2 and 1.5.

www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-value-and-growth-rate#history

R has always been an estimate and always describes the situation some time ago, how long depends on how they are doing the estimate. In Scotland just now its between 1.2 and 1.5 just now, so yes, there is a large margin of error. They use a supercomputer to calculate it, its not as simple as we think.

It was between 1.1 and 1.4 on 12 July for Scotland.

www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/research-and-analysis/2021/07/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-issue-no-60/documents/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-60/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-60/govscot%3Adocument/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-60.pdf

My GS’s have been sent home numerous times this school year. They have had negative lateral flow tests and negative PCR tests, still have to isolate for 10 days at a time.

As long as children test negative why should they have to miss out on their education.
This really hits hard those at the lower income scale as they are least likely to be able to work from home in order to look after children.

Thank you.

This is a deliberate attempt to let children and their families be infected. It is also looking very likely that there will be no doses to vaccinate them.

Not panicking? Scaremongering then.

The lower income groups are also suffering most from covid.

What’s to be done?

How about addressing the level of inequality.

So how would you identify the children who have been infected without a test? Infections are hitting those at the lower end of the income scale hardest. The issue is that people have been ignoring advice to self-isolate and going out to work because they couldn't afford not to work.

Alegrias1

^This is a deliberate attempt to let children and their families be infected. It is also looking very likely that there will be no doses to vaccinate them.^

Not panicking? Scaremongering then.

No even scaremongering.

Unless you can describe government policy other than in terms of herd immunity.

Cross post Whitewave.

This has just been on BBC News.
I suspect it is so that the Government can, yet again, go against what they were planning to do on the 19th.
What a government this is and what a huge mess they have made of everything.

Alegrias1

^This is a deliberate attempt to let children and their families be infected. It is also looking very likely that there will be no doses to vaccinate them.^

Not panicking? Scaremongering then.

So the governments' own statistics are wrong? It's not scaremongering. I fail to understand why you wish to downplay scientific evidence.

I think these things are deliberately trickled out, in preparation for them being implemented.

Alegrias1

R has always been an estimate and always describes the situation some time ago, how long depends on how they are doing the estimate. In Scotland just now its between 1.2 and 1.5 just now, so yes, there is a large margin of error. They use a supercomputer to calculate it, its not as simple as we think.

I know, but rates are still rising in every part of the UK apart from Scotland, where they are still high.

Whatever the policy, suggesting the government are deliberately trying to infect people and that vaccine supplies are running out is speculation, unless you have sources. Do you have sources, or is it conjecture?

I don't know whether people are aware, but cases in English schools will no longer require contacts to self-isolate. This is a deliberate attempt to let children and their families be infected. It is also looking very likely that there will be no doses to vaccinate them.
Most of the infections being seen now are in parents of school aged children. My DD is a teacher who fortunately has escaped the virus thus far. Now she is exhausted and run down, her first Pfizer jab was late coming due to shortages in her area, and then she will be expected to return to school at full throttle in September still waiting for her second jab.

The R rate can only be calculated AFTER the case figures for a given period have been collected, number-crunched and the rate worked out, so it is bound to be retrospective to the period in which those figures have been collected. That has to refer back to a previous week, perhaps ending a week earlier.